UFC 290: Volkanovski v Rodriguez Predictions 

Featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski faces interim titleholder Yair Rodriguez in a blockbuster unification bout as part of a championship doubleheader at UFC 290 in Las Vegas on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

The other title match on the stacked International Fight Week event at the T-Mobile Arena will see Brandon Moreno defend his flyweight strap against long-time rival Alexandre Pantoja. 

South African star Dricus du Plessis battles former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker in a title eliminator, top-15 lightweights Jalin Turner and Dan Hooker square off and unbeaten wrestling powerhouse Bo Nickal takes on UFC newcomer Valentine Woodburn at 185 pounds. 

MAIN CARD (from 4 AM Sunday SA time):

Alexander Volkanovski (1.27) v Yair Rodriguez (4.00) (Featherweight Championship)

After falling just short of becoming a two-division champion in February, Volkanovski (25-2) returns to his kingdom at 145 pounds looking to remind his latest challenger and the masses why he’s the greatest featherweight of all time. 

In his pursuit of a second belt, “The Great” moved up to lightweight to challenge 155-pound champion Islam Makhachev and gave him the fight of his life. He ended up succumbing by decision, bringing to an end a remarkable 22-fight win streak, but in pushing the Dagestani ace further than leading lightweights such as Hooker, Bobby Green and Charles Oliveira had, Volkanovski showed why he’s one of the best pound-for-pound fighters on the planet. 

He returns to his domain at featherweight where he’s a perfect 12-0 in the UFC and ready for his fifth title defence. A master of movement and strategy, the Australian’s a relentless hunter who overwhelms opponents with non-stop pressure and crisp, high-volume striking. 

He has 15 finishes to his name, the last one of his 12 KO/TKOs coming when he stopped the ultra-durable Chan Sung Jung, known as “The Korean Zombie”, last April. Before that, his last stoppage was in 2018, which shows what a tactician he’s become. 

In Rodriguez (15-3 with five knockouts and four submissions), he faces a fresh challenge in more ways than one. One of the most thrilling and unpredictable strikers in mixed martial arts, “El Pantera” is a buzzsaw of bewildering techniques. His striking is as layered as a Swiss Army knife and as sophisticated as it gets. 

When it comes to combating a machine of technical striking like Volkanovski, the more unconventional, the better. A taekwondo black belt, Rodriguez has an unrivalled array of weapons on the feet at 145 and can end a fight at any given moment. 

The best example of this, and the magic bullets he possesses, is his win over “The Korean Zombie” back in 2018. Seconds away from losing a decision, the Mexican uncorked a ridiculous, one-of-a-kind elbow to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat and scoop the Knockout of the Year honours. 

Fortunately for Volkanovski, he trains with one of the best strikers in the world in middleweight champion Israel Adesanya, while he also brought in kickboxing savant Mike “Blood Diamond” Mathetha, which will ensure he’s as ready as one can be to deal with Rodriguez’s dynamism. 

For his part, Rodriguez has come into his own in his last couple of fights. He’s unlocked the maturity that takes fighters to the next level and saw him hurt Josh Emmett on the feet before submitting him in the second round to win the interim on the same night Volkanovski fought Makhachev.  

Due to the threat Rodriguez poses on the feet, I expect more wrestling from Volkanovski in this fight, especially considering Rodriguez doesn’t have the best takedown defence (63%). 

No one mixes it up quite like Volkanovski, plus he’s never been hurt, so he’s set to control the contest en route to cementing himself as the undisputed champion, most likely by decision.

Prediction: Volkanovski by decision.

Best Bet: Volkanovski by decision at 2.10.

Alternative Bet: Over 4.5 rounds at 1.80.

Brandon Moreno (1.52) v Alexandre Pantoja (2.60) (Flyweight Championship)

Moreno (21-6-2) finally ended his war with Deiveson Figueiredo in January, scoring an emphatic TKO victory to win the first-ever UFC quadrilogy 2-1-1 and become the undisputed flyweight champion for the second time, and now seeks to settle the score against another long-time rival. 

Pantoja (25-5) has had Moreno’s number, beating him not once, but twice. They first faced off during season 24 of The Ultimate Fighter in 2016, with the Brazilian securing a submission victory, and he won a decision in the rematch two years later. Now, five years on, he’s out to sweep the trilogy and become the 125-pound king. 

Old-school boxing coaches used to say a fighter becomes 30% better when he wins a world title. Moreno’s evolved exponentially since the last meeting with Pantoja, so much so that he’s the solid favourite this time around. He’s grown into a complete mixed martial artist, a confident competitor who fully understands his game and fires on all cylinders. 

“The Assassin Baby” is a super nippy striker (five knockouts) and slick grappler (11 submissions). On top of that, the first-ever Mexican-born UFC champion is as tough as they come. 

His warrior spirit and iron jaw played crucial parts in him winning the historic series against Figueiredo, one of the hardest punchers ever at 125 pounds, so he should be able to withstand Pantoja’s best shots. That said, his defensive advances are such that I don’t expect the challenger to land anything clean. 

For his part, Pantoja has also gotten better since his second triumph over Moreno in 2018. He’s only lost twice since then and has developed into a fierce finisher, with all but one of his last six wins coming by stoppage. Back-to-back submission victories over Brandon Royval and Alex Perez extended his current win streak to three and cemented his maiden title shot. 

He, too, is well-rounded. He’s the harder hitter of the two and throws more volume, whereas Moreno’s probably the better grappler. Crucially, however, “The Cannibal” hasn’t ascended to the main event scene until now. Therefore, he’s never been in a five-round fight or felt the pressure of a championship/headlining bout. 

Moreno, in turn, has had nothing but title fights since 2020 and went the full 25 minutes on two of those five occasions. Given that neither man has even been finished, that gives Moreno what should prove to be a decisive advantage. 

Leaning on his championship experience, I expect Moreno to showcase just how much he’s evolved in recent years and his superior tactical pacing to exorcise another demon and retain his title by decision.  

Prediction: Moreno by decision.

Best Bet: Moreno by decision at 2.50.

Alternative Bets: Moreno at 1.52 or over 3.50 rounds at 1.55.

Jalin Turner (1.39) v Dan Hooker (3.15) (Lightweight)

Expect fireworks when these two lethal lightweights collide. 

A unique, towering titan at 155 pounds, Turner (13-6) boasts a 100% finish rate (nine knockouts and four submissions. A long, rangy southpaw and crafty grappler, “The Tarantula” could easily have entered this clash on a six-fight win streak. Many, including his opponent this weekend, thought he’d done enough to win his last fight against Mateusz Gamrot, but a split decision went against him. 

A massive lightweight, 10th-ranked Turner stands 6’3″ (Hooker’s 6’0″) and will have a two-inch reach advantage. He’ll be determined to return to winning ways and with a willing dance partner, this one’s destined to finish inside the distance.   

Hooker (22-12) was on the cusp of title contention, having won seven of eight fights, when he was outlasted by former interim champion Dustin Poirier in an all-out war back in 2020. 

The 11th-ranked New Zealander’s failed to regain top form ever since, winning just two of his last five, but he did get back on track with a TKO win over Claudio Puelles last time out. 

It’s worth noting, though, that he’s mainly fought the cream of the crop, his last three losses being to former title challenger Michael Chandler, reigning king Makhachev and fourth-ranked featherweight contender Arnold Allen. That elite-level experience is invaluable and something Turner lacks. 

“The Hangman” has 18 finishes in all, including 11 by knockout, but he’s used to being the longer striker. Turner’s reach will trip him up and should see the American stand tall. 

Prediction: Turner by knockout.  

Best Bet: Turner by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.75.  

Alternative Bet: Turner by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 1.68.

Bo Nickal (1.03) v Valentine Woodburn (13.00) (Middleweight)

Nickal’s original opponent, Tresean Gore, was forced to withdraw due to injury on Tuesday but the UFC was quick to land a replacement in undefeated UFC newcomer Woodburn. 

Nickal made good on his UFC debut in March, mauling veteran Jamie Pickett to add to his considerable hype. The fight lasted just two minutes and 54 seconds and yet is the longest of the wrestling phenom’s career thus far.

A three-time Division I national champion and four-time All-American, Nickal’s bulldozed all four of his opponents (one knockout and three submissions) to date and made it look effortless, hence why he’s one of the biggest favourites in UFC history.

Woodburn makes his promotional debut at 7-0 with five knockouts, including three in the first round. While the former Combat Night middleweight champion’s a good striker, Nickal’s next-level wrestling is truly something to behold and will be too much for him to handle. 

Bank on another quick submission win for the hottest prospect in all of MMA. 

Prediction: Nickal by submission.

Best Bet: Nickal by submission in round one at 1.54.

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.