Morocco vs South Africa – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Morocco faces South Africa in the African Cup of Nations round of 16 on Tuesday. The Atlas Lions took seven points from their group matches but saw a five-match unbeaten streak against Bafana Bafana ended in the last meeting back in June 2023.

Morocco Form

Morocco have had very strong form over the last 14 months. They finished fourth in the FIFA World Cup in Qatar in December 2022 and beat Brazil in a friendly in March 2023. Although they lost to South Africa in an AFCON qualifier, there was nothing riding on the match, and they beat Liberia 3-0 to finish off the group.

Morocco beat Tanzania 2-0 away in the World Cup qualifier not long before this tournament. The AFCON began with a 3-0 win over Tanzania before drawing 1-1 with DR Congo. Their last match brought a narrow 1-0 win over Zambia as they put up 2.61 xG.

Morocco Team News

Rumours coming from the camp are that both Hakim Ziyech and Sofiane Boufal are doubtful due to injuries. It’s not clear if either winger will be fit to start this match.

Amine Adli and Amir Richardson are on standby to deputise. Romain Saiss and Youssef En-Nesyri were not involved against Zambia and will return to the XI here.

Morocco Motivation

Walid Regragui will be desperate to win the AFCON as coach after their heroics in the World Cup.

Morocco will play on the front foot in this match and look to assert themselves from the start.

South Africa Form

Bafana Bafana came into this tournament having been in strong form for a while. They qualified for the AFCON in a group with Morocco and Liberia and won 2-1 away to the latter and 2-1 at home to the former in a dead rubber. After beating Benin 2-1 in the World Cup qualifier, they went to Rwanda and lost 2-0 on a poor pitch.

This tournament has been steady for South Africa. They lost 2-0 to Mali in their opener and then thrashed Namibia 4-0 thanks to a fortunate penalty. They did not concede a single shot in the second half of that win. Last time out, Bafana played out a comfortable and controlled 0-0 draw vs Tunisia.

South Africa Team News

The last two matches have seen an unchanged XI and Hugo Broos is set to stick to his guns. Percy Tau will play on the left with Thapelo Morena preferred to Thapelo Maseko on the opposite flank.

Grant Kekana is set to keep Siyanda Xulu on the bench in defence. Khuliso Mudau should be fine to start after going off at halftime against Tunisia. Nyiko Mobbie is on standby to deputise if needed.

South Africa Motivation

Broos will have belief as his side beat Morocco not long ago. A more direct and pragmatic approach was seen against Namibia and Tunisia, and they won’t change now.

Expect Bafana to keep it quiet and look to use their speed on the counter.

Key Stats

Morocco have lost just 1 of their last 12 matches (a defeat vs South Africa)

Morocco have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 8 matches

Morocco have scored at least 1 goal in each of their last 12 AFCON matches

South Africa have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches

South Africa’s last 12 AFCON matches have seen them score more than 1 goal on just 1 occasion (4-0 vs Namibia)

Verdict

A tight match awaits in all probability. Bafana Bafana are not scoring many goals whilst Morocco have a solid defence. If the Atlas Lions score first, they will be very difficult to break down.

Best Bet: Morocco win at 1.54

Value Bet: Morocco win to zero at 2.20

Correct Score: Morocco 1-0 South Africa at 4.65

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis