Liverpool v Ajax – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Liverpool faces Ajax on Tuesday night in UEFA Champions League at Anfield. The Reds were thoroughly thrashed 4-1 at Napoli on matchday one and don’t look themselves this season. Ajax have won every match they’ve played this season including 4-0 at home to Rangers in the group stage opener. With Napoli looking in good form, Liverpool needs a win to ensure their progression hopes don’t take a blow.

Liverpool Form

Jurgen Klopp’s team aren’t at their best so far this season, prompting pundit Jamie Carragher to wonder whether the squad is at the end of a cycle. Their league campaign began with draws at Fulham and at home to Crystal Palace before a 2-1 loss at a struggling Man Utd. They bounced back with consecutive wins including thumping Bournemouth 9-0 and scoring in the dying seconds to beat Newcastle 2-1 at home.

Their last two matches were mixed. They had an average first half but a strong second half (hitting the woodwork three times) in a 0-0 Merseyside derby draw at Everton. Their 4-1 loss at Napoli was truly alarming defensively, allowing 3.2 Expected Goals plus conceding two penalties.

Liverpool Team News

Thiago Alcantara is fit after injury and has had a full week to train after fixture postponements. He is therefore more likely to start this one than before. Arthur Melo is also pushing for a place in the XI considering all the engine room absentees – Naby Keita, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, and Jordan Henderson – plus James Milner’s terrible performance in Naples.

Joel Matip should replace the out-of-form Joe Gomez at centre back with Ibrahima Konate still absent. Darwin Nunez should lead the line from the start and Diogo Jota is getting fitter and is another option to freshen up the attack. Andy Robertson is injured until after the international break so Kostas Tsimikas will start.

Liverpool Motivation

After losing the opener in the group with three very good teams (plus the tricky Rangers), nothing less than a Liverpool win will be good enough from this match. A defeat would put them in a dire situation with four matches to play.

Expect Klopp’s team to attack but they know Ajax carry a lot of threat and also leave space on transition. So, perhaps Liverpool will sit off a little more in stages and play on the counter.

Ajax Form

Ajax are unsurprisingly blowing away all competition in the Eredivisie so far this season. They won their first four matches with only one goal conceded and 13 goals scored as they began life without Sebastien Haller, Lisandro Martinez and later Antony. Steven Bergwijn netted six goals in those first four matches.  

The Dutch giants then made light work of Rangers on matchday one in the Champions League. Edson Alvarez, Steven Berghuis, Mohammed Kudus and Bergwijn got the goals that night. Over the weekend, Alfred Schreuder made just one change as his side beat Heerenveen 5-0 at home in the league.

Ajax Team News

Coach Alfred Schreuder has a settled side. From the team used against Rangers, only Steven Berghuis didn’t start over the weekend as Davy Klaasen was given a spot in the XI. That’s probably the only real decision he has to make for the trip to Anfield.

Right winger Lucas Ocampos signed on loan from Sevilla, a fine addition, but he may continue to be used from the bench. Striker Brian Brobbey is set to remain on the bench with winger Mohammed Kudus playing down the middle of the attack. Kenneth Taylor will start in central midfield as he takes the place of Ryan Gravenberch, who was sold to Bayern Munich in the summer.

Ajax Motivation

Ajax don’t know how to play defensively and will come to Anfield with a positive outlook. Bergwijn will fancy his chances down the left against Trent Alexander-Arnold in the latter’s defensive form.

The Dutch side will play to score and to win but know a draw is a fine result for their ambitions to reach the round of 16 from a tough group.

Key Stats

Liverpool have lost 2 of their last 3 home CL matches

Liverpool are unbeaten in 10 home matches (all comps)

Liverpool won 1-0 in both meetings between these sides in 2010

Ajax have won all 6 of their matches this season (all comps)

Ajax have scored at least 2 goals in 8 of their last 9 CL matches

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 6 of Ajax’s last 7 games (CL).

Verdict

This is a tough game for Liverpool and one where backing them carries some risk. Ajax look to have enough to score at Anfield but the Reds should just about have enough to exploit the space and get a much-needed three points.

Best Bet: Liverpool win and over 2.5 goals at 1.95
Value Bet: Liverpool to win and both to score at 2.50
Multiplier Leg: Liverpool win/draw double chance + over 2.5 goals at 1.66

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis