Leicester v Man City – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Leicester host Man City at the King Power Stadium on Saturday in the early kick-off. The Foxes have won three of their last five matches (scoring 10 goals in those wins) but have been massively overperforming their Expected Goals numbers during that streak. City have only lost once this season but have drawn three successive away matches without scoring.

Leicester Form

The Foxes had a disastrous start to this season and looked like possible relegation contenders after one point and six losses in their first seven fixtures. They have since won three of their last five matches to move into 17^th in the table and out of the drop zone.

A 5-2 defeat at Brighton preceded a 6-2 loss at Tottenham, which left Brendan Rodgers fearing for his job. They ended their bad streak by turning just 1.3 Expected Goals into a 4-0 home win against bottom-placed Nottingham Forest. A 2-1 loss at Bournemouth and 0-0 home draw with Crystal Palace followed. Leicester then beat Leeds 2-0 (0.80 xG) and won 4-0 at Wolves as they scored four of their five shots.

Leicester Team News

Jonny Evans remains a doubt for this match so Daniel Amartey is on standby to partner with impressive new signing Wout Faes. Wilfred Ndidi has been out with a hamstring injury but is training again and could make the substitutes’ bench. Both Ricardo Pereira and Ryan Bertrand are injured long-term at fullback.

Brendan Rodgers could name an unchanged side from the win at Wolves. Jamie Vardy scored off the bench at Molineux but Patson Daka could continue to lead the line in preference to the veteran.

Leicester Motivation

The Foxes would take a point from this match in a heartbeat. They will have to set up more defensively and defend deeper against the threat that City poses.

If Leicester can keep it tight, then Rodgers could unleash Vardy in the second half to try to nick a result.

Man City Form

City have surprisingly drawn three away matches in a row without scoring. They have also won just one of their last four matches across all competitions even though Guardiola’s have lost just once in 17 this season. They looked unstoppable in thrashing Man Utd 6-3, FC Copenhagen 5-0 and Southampton 4-0.

Their last few matches have been a bit uncharacteristic. They drew 0-0 at Copenhagen and lost 1-0 at Liverpool after playing well in that latter fixture. A 3-1 home win against Brighton last weekend got them back to winning ways. In midweek, City surprisingly only drew 0-0 away to Dortmund but that secured them the top spot in the group with a game to spare.

Man City Team News

Pep Guardiola will be without defender Kyle Walker and midfielder Kalvin Phillips due to injuries. Sergio Gomez is available at left-back after a European suspension. Joao Cancelo should be fit to play again having been down with an illness of late.

City have s slight doubt over top striker Erling Haaland. He took a knock in midweek and has had flu but it’s expected that he will be fit. If he misses out, then Phil Foden could play as a false nine or Julian Alvarez could get another chance to start.

Leicester Motivation

City will go all out to win this match and to end their strange winless, goalless run in away games.

Guardiola rested some players in midweek like Ederson, Kevin De Bruyne, and Aymeric Laporte which indicates his full focus is on this fixture. City have a dead rubber Champions League match after this so 100% attention will be on taking three points at Leicester.

Key Stats

Leicester have kept 3 PL clean sheets in a row

Leicester have lost 7 of their last 11 PL matches

Leicester have lost 6 of their last 7 PL matches against Man City

City have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 away matches (all comps)

City have failed to score in 3 away matches (all comps)

Man City have lost once in 23 away PL matches

Prediction

Leicester have improved their results of late but those results have often been more than they’ve deserved. City have had a small dip but should return to their best level in this one and get the victory against a team who has leaked plenty of goals against the big six. Be sure to check pre-match if Erling Haaland is set to start before placing bets on him to score.

Best Bet: Man City win (-1 handicap) at 1.74
Alternative Bet: Man City win and over 2.5 goals at 1.71
Alternative Bet: Man City win and Haaland to score anytime at 1.70

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis