Chelsea v Leeds – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Chelsea faces Leeds in the English Premier League on Saturday afternoon with both sides needing a win for different reasons. Marcelo Bielsa’s side is not far clear of the relegation zone whilst the Blues will want to close the gap to the top of the table. Both sides are heavily hit by injuries to key players.

Chelsea Form

Chelsea has lost just once in 14 matches across all competitions. A shock 1-1 home draw with Burnley was seemingly put to bed by 3-0 and 4-0 wins against Leicester and Juventus respectively. However, the last four matches have brought just one win.

A 1-1 home draw with Man Utd saw a performance good enough to win but there was some fortune to win 2-1 at Watford after an excellent display by their opponents. Their last league match saw a 2-1 lead turn into a 3-2 defeat against West Ham. In midweek, Chelsea rested several players and threw away a 3-2 lead in the 94th minute to draw 3-3 at Zenit. Their opponents created several clear chances and should have won.

Chelsea Team News

Thomas Tuchel is without N’Golo Kante, Mateo Kovacic, and Ruben Loftus-Cheek in midfield. Jorginho is doubtful but should be able to start. Trevor Chalobah is missing in defence but Thiago Silva and Antonio Rudiger will return after being unused substitutes in midweek.

Chelsea is expected to recall Marcos Alonso at left wingback after Saul Niguez struggled in that role against Zenit. Kai Havertz should lead the line as Romelu Lukaku slowly makes his way back to fitness. Timo Werner may have earned a start alongside Havertz.

Chelsea Motivation

The amount of rotation in midweek gave a clue to Chelsea giving this match top priority. Tuchel’s side has to fly back from Russia and fatigue could be better.

Leeds are big rivals and CFC urgently needs three points so the side will be totally motivated. If the Blues go in front, Tuchel could look to protect the lead and avoid throwing away another match from a winning position.

Leeds Form

Leeds sit 15th in the table, just six points above the relegation zone but also just five points off eighth. After just one win in their opening nine league matches, Marcelo Bielsa’s side has picked up to some degree of late. They won 2-1 at Norwich and defended excellently in a 1-1 home draw with Leicester. A 2-1 loss at Tottenham followed.

They are unbeaten in their last three as they drew 0-0 at Brighton and beat Crystal Palace 1-0 at home with a 94th-minute penalty. Their last match saw a 95th-minute goal to rescue a 2-2 home draw with Brentford.

Leeds News

Bielsa’s squad is looking very stretched. Robin Koch (illness) and Liam Cooper (hamstring) are missing at the back whilst Kalvin Phillips is also injured in midfield. Upfront, Rodrigo is out and Patrick Bamford injured himself celebrating his late equalizer against Brentford.

Pascal Struijk should return in Cooper’s shot with Mateusz Klich taking Phillips’ midfield spot. Jack Harrison should come in as a left-winger so it means Dan James plays as a makeshift striker.

Leeds Motivation

Leeds have had all week to prepare but their approach is not known. Bielsa played defensively against some of the top teams as last went on and kept clean sheets against Arsenal and Chelsea.

With the rivalry between these sides and Leeds’ need for points, they could be quite delighted with a draw from this one.

Key Stats

Chelsea have won their last 4 home matches vs Leeds

CFC have lost 1 of their last 14 matches (all comps)

Chelsea have won 5 of their last 8 home PL matches (last five: LWWDD)

Leeds have won just 2 of their last 32 away matches in London (L23)

Leeds have L3, D3 of their last 7 away PL matches (W1)

Raphinha has scored 6 of Leeds’ 15 PL goals this season

Leeds have conceded in 6 of their last 7 away PL matches

Verdict

Leeds’ injuries and away record in London means Chelsea are big favourites. Tuchel will have his side fully focused and motivated on the league but he has a tired, injury-hit squad. A home win looks a good bet but you’ll have to be creative to find value.

Best Bet: Chelsea win to nil at 2.00
Alternative Bet: Chelsea (-1 handicap) at 1.80
Correct Score Tip: Chelsea 2-0 Leeds at 6.50

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis