Arsenal v Southampton – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Arsenal host Southampton at the Emirates on Friday night in the English Premier League. The Gunners will be desperate to return to winning ways having surrendered 2-0 leads in their last two fixtures to draw 2-2. Saints sit bottom of the table, some four points off safety with just seven matches left to save themselves. These teams drew 1-1 when they met in October.

Arsenal Form

The Gunners have dropped four points in their last two league matches. They’re just four points above Man City now, who have a game in hand and also host Arsenal next midweek. Against Liverpool, Arsenal led 2-0 after 28 minutes but ended up drawing 2-2. With 3.96 Expected Goals and eight ‘big chances’ conceded, a draw was a fortunate result. Against West Ham last week, they again threw away a 2-0 lead to draw 2-2.

Prior to those blemishes, Arsenal have won seven successive league fixtures since a 3-1 loss at home to Man City. They scored 23 goals during that run with six goals conceded. They won 3-0 at Fulham and 4-1 at home to both Crystal Palace and Leeds. In all three matches, they led 3-0 by the 55^th minute before drawing the final 30 minutes of each match.

Arsenal Team News

Mikel Arteta is feeling the loss of William Saliba, with Rob Holding proving a major downgrade at centre back. Takehiro Tomiyasu is out for the rest of the season and left-back Oleksandr Zinchenko has a groin problem. Kieran Tierney will deputise for the latter if the isn’t fit enough to return.

Eddie Nketiah is back from injury but will be among the substitutes. Gabriel Jesus should again lead the line although Mikel Arteta could give Leandro Trossard an opportunity and keep Jesus fresh for the Man City game on Wednesday.

Arsenal Motivation

This is an absolute must-win. It would open the gap to seven points with City in FA Cup action. It would also give a good mental boost ahead of a trip to the Etihad.

Arsenal will attack and look to score early but they will also be determined to score a third goal as early as possible to try to kill the game off – something they failed to do vs Liverpool and West Ham.

Southampton Form

Southampton looks very likely to be relegated this season. A run of one win in nine matches saw two coaches lose their jobs as the side sat in the bottom place. Caretaker coach Ruben Selles initially got two wins in his first three matches, winning 1-0 at Chelsea and 1-0 at home to Leicester. They’ve since taken just two points from six fixtures.

Those two draws were away at ten-man Man Utd and a 3-3 home draw vs Tottenham having trailed 3-1 after 76 minutes. The last six have also seen home losses to Brentford (2-0), a 1-0 defeat at West Ham, and a 4-1 home loss to Man City. Last time out, they were beaten 2-0 at St. Mary’s by Crystal Palace. They produced a paltry 0.78 Expected Goals in the match.

Southampton Team News

Saints have a number of concerns about this match. Tino Livramento is only just back from a long knee injury, Mohamed Salisu is doubtful at centre back and Ainsley Maitland-Niles can’t face his parent club. Che Adams faces a late fitness test up-front.

Coach Ruben Selles could recall Romain Perraud at left-back with Kyle Walker-Peters reverting to his natural right side. Paul Onuachu could be given a start up front with Carlos Alcarav either dropped or playing behind the main striker, having led the line vs Crystal Palace.

Southampton Motivation

Southampton would take a draw here but they need to at least try to win, considering the points gap to 17th place.

They will likely set up to press in the middle third and transition quickly. Drawing freekicks and corners for Ward-Prowse to deliver will be an active strategy too.

Key Stats

Arsenal have won 12 of their 15 PL home matches this season (42 goals scored)

Arsenal scored 3+ goals in their last 4 home league matches

Southampton have lost 10 of their 15 away EPL matches this season

Saints have scored just 9 away goals in the league this season (8 blanks in 15 matches)

Verdict

The Gunners are in great home form and desperately need three points. They face a desperate Saints side and Arsenal’s confidence may have taken a hit. They should have far too much on the day though.

Best Bet: Arsenal win (-2 handicap) at 2.40

Alternative Bet: Arsenal to score Over 2.5 goals at 1.80

Build-a-bet: Arsenal win and Saka anytime goalscorer at 2.79

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis