Arsenal v Fulham – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Arsenal host Fulham at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday. The Gunners have never lost a home league match vs The Cottagers with 24 wins and six draws in 30 fixtures. Marco Silva’s side were thrashed at home last week and are winless in seven London derbies. Mikel Arteta’s team have six points from two narrow victories.

Arsenal Form

It’s been a good start to the season with a full haul of six points so far. Arsenal toiled a bit in a 2-1 home win against Nottingham Forest as they produced just 0.83 xG despite having 78% possession. In their last match, Arteta’s team won 1-0 at Crystal Palace. They produced 2.03 xG despite playing with ten men from the 67th minute.

It’s ten matches since Fulham beat Arsenal. The hosts surprisingly conceded in 15 of their 19 league matches at the Emirates last season and then on the opening day at home too. The poor run last term of two wins in eight matches from rounds 30 to 37 cost them the title as they leaked 16 goals in that streak. The season finished with a 5-0 home win against Wolves, meaning Arsenal are on a three-match winning streak.

Arsenal Team News

Mikel Arteta is set to play Eddie Nketiah up front again as Gabriel Jesus remains out injured. Jurrien Timber is out long-term and Takehiro Tomiyasu serves a one-match suspension for his harsh red card at Palace. Gabriel will surely come back into the XI after two matches on the bench.
Oleksandr Zinchenko is also fit again and pushing to start at left-back.

Arteta could leave Thomas Partey out and revert to his most common backfour from last season. Another option is to keep Gabriel on the bench with Partey and Zinchenko as inverting fullbacks and Ben White at centre-back.

Arsenal Motivation

Arsenal will expect to win this match and will look to have at least two-thirds of the ball. They will attack a Fulham side lacking confidence and look for a big win.

Considering how few home clean sheets they kept last season, a win to zero is a target and so is a convincing margin of victory.

Fulham Form

Silva’s side won four matches in a row at the turn of the year to put themselves close to survival at the halfway mark last term. Their final 19 fixtures saw 10 losses as complacency set in and the fine margins started going against them. After three losses in a row from round 32 to 34, they picked up seven points from their next three. A 2-1 final-day loss at Man Utd completed the season.

This term began with a 1-0 win at Everton. However, Fulham allowed 19 shots and 2.73 xG and somewhat burgled the victory. Last week, they were destroyed 3-0 at home by Brentford. Whilst Tim Ream was red-carded around the hour mark, Fulham allowed 3.93 xG and created a paltry 0.46 xG. There are warning signs for them this season.

Fulham Team News

The Cottagers are without Tim Ream at the back due to suspension. Summer signing Calvin Bassey from Ajax will get a start next to Issa Diop. Joao Palhinha returned from injury as a sub last week and will add a lot in central midfield if he can start this one.

Willian is set for a recall against his former club on the left if he can shake off a slight knock. Raul Jimenez will continue up front after the sale of Aleksandar Mitrovic to Al Hilal. Speedy Adama Traore is another pushing to start in preference to Harry Wilson on the right wing.

Fulham Motivation

Fulham have been poor this season and far too open. Marco Silva could set up a little more compactly in this match and look to play on the counter through the pace of Adama Traore.

A draw would be a superb result and they are going to play for one from the start, even if you won’t see any buses being parked by the Cottagers.

Key Stats

Arsenal have won just 5 of their last 7 Premier League matches

Arsenal have conceded in 22 of their last 26 home matches (EPL)

Arsenal have scored 28 goals in their last 9 home Premier League matches

Fulham are winless in 30 matches vs Arsenal (lost 24)

Fulham have lost 9 of their last 15 EPL matches

4 of Fulham’s last 5 away matches have seen just one team on target

Verdict

The early signs for Fulham this season are alarming. Arsenal have had a slow start as they integrate new midfielders and change things up tactically. They should have far too much for the visitors and I am tipping them to get a rare home clean sheet.

Best Bet: Arsenal win to zero at 2.05

Value Bet: Arsenal win (-2 handicap) at 2.55

Goalscorer Tip: Saka to score anytime at 2.40

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis