Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Atletico Madrid host Real Madrid at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano on Sunday evening in La Liga. Los Blancos have a perfect winning record in the league this season and are already five points clear of Atleti, who have drawn once and lost once in five matches. The hosts are unbeaten in three home La Liga matches against their city rivals.

Atletico Madrid Form

Diego Simeone’s side have been inconsistent this season. They lost 2-0 at home in round two to Villarreal before a 1-0 win at Valencia. They then drew 1-1 at Real Sociedad to make it five points dropped in the first three fixtures.

Atletico then scored twice in injury time to rescue three points at home to Porto in their UEFA Champions League opener. A 4-1 home win against Celta Vigo followed but it proved a false dawn. In midweek, lost 2-0 away at Bayer Leverkusen after leaking goals in the 84^th and 87^th minutes.

Atletico Madrid Team News

Atletico look set to be without three defenders for this match. Steven Savic is injured and José María Giménez has a back problem which could rule him out. On-loan fullback Sergio Reguilon is still making his way back from injury.

In goal, Jan Oblak has missed the last few matches and is 50-50 to return for this one. Ivo Grbic could cover once again between the sticks. Neither Alvaro Morata nor Joao Felix were good in midweek and Diego Simeone has options in Matheus Cunha and Angel Correa up front. Antoine Griezmann will again play only the final 30 minutes due to contractual reasons.

Atletico Madrid Motivation

Atletico will be hugely motivated due to this being a derby match at home plus the fact that they need to close the gap at the top.

Simeone’s side tend to score plenty of late goals because of their vast options in the front two spots so they can change things from the bench, not least with Griezmann.

Real Madrid Form

Carlo Ancelotti’s side are in top form. They’ve won all eight matches this season, including the UEFA Super Cup, five La Liga fixtures, and two UEFA Champions League group matches. In La Liga, they’ve netted 15 goals and conceded five. The La Liga season begin with four wins in a row, all of them seeing both teams on target with Madrid either losing 1-0 or drawing 1-1 at some point in the match.

A resounding 3-0 win followed away at Celtic in the Champions League thanks to three second-half goals in 22 minutes. Madrid then thrashed Mallorca 4-1 at home (again trailing 1-0) as four different players were on target. Madrid toiled in midweek, beating RB Leipzig 2-0 at home. Fede Valverde and sub, Marco Asensio netted goals in the final 10 minutes.

Real Madrid Team News

The biggest team news is that Karim Benzema is about 75% likely to miss this match up front. Carlo Ancelotti used Rodrygo as a false nine in midweek and Eden Hazard played there in the match before and both are under consideration. Mariano Diaz is a specialist striker but won’t be trusted to start.

Lucas Vazquez is injured at right back but Alvaro Odriozola and starting centre back Eder Militao are close to a return. The latter may not start this one with Antonio Rudiger instead partnering David Alaba with Ferland Mendy recalled at left back. Toni Kroos is set for a recall in central midfield after being rested in midweek.

Real Madrid Motivation

Los Blancos will play to control this match with possession in their half whilst defending quite deep when Atletico have it. They will go for the three points without a doubt to maintain their winning start to this season.

Being without Benzema is a blow and leaves Ancelotti with fewer options to turn the game, particularly if Rodrygo is selected to start instead of being a high-impact substitute.

Key Stats

Atletico Madrid are 3 home La Liga matches unbeaten vs Real (D2, W1)

Atleti have dropped 7 points in their last 5 home La Liga matches (L1, D2)

Atletico have seen Both Teams to Score Yes in 3 of their last 4 matches

Real Madrid have won their 8 matches this season (5W in La Liga)

Real Madrid have won with Both Teams Scoring in their 5 matches this season (La Liga)

Real have won 8 of their last 10 away La Liga matches

Real’s last 6 away La Liga victories have seen Both Teams on Target

Verdict

With Atletico’s firepower and vast options, they have enough to score against a Real Madrid side who aren’t keeping many La Liga clean sheets in recent times. The visitors look in imperious form though and are well capable of winning this fixture, whilst a score draw is another option.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score at 1.64
Alternative Bet: Real Madrid to win at 2.30
High Value Alternative Bet: Score Draw at 4.35

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis