PSG v Bayern Munich – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

PSG host Bayern Munich at the Parc des Princes on Tuesday night in the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League. The French giants have injury concerns over some key players but they knocked Bayern out on away goals in the 2020-21 season, though they were beaten 1-0 in Paris during that tie. Die Roten have lost just two matches in this competition since 2019 and will hope to go all the way this time around.

PSG Form

Christophe Galtier’s side have had a sub-par 2023 so far as the focus has shifted off domestic commitments and onto European ambitions. They finished 2022 on a 25-match unbeaten run in Ligue 1 but have lost four of 11 matches since the turn of the year. New Year’s Day saw a 3-1 loss at Lens sans Neymar and Messi and a 1-0 defeat to Rennes followed soon after.

A 1-1 home draw with Reims saw more points dropped but they shook themselves into gear by winning 3-1 at Montpellier and then 2-1 vs Toulouse at home. They’ve lost their last two fixtures, firstly 2-1 at Marseille to exit the Coupe de France with star turn Kylian Mbappe. They lost 3-1 at Monaco last time out without Mbappe and Messi. PSG’s goal was scored by 16-year-old star Warren Zaïre-Emery.

PSG Team News

PSG were without Messi against Monaco but he will almost certainly be fit to start this huge clash. Marco Verratti also sat out the defeat on Saturday but will be in the starting XI for this match in all likelihood. The big question mark is whether Kylian Mbappe is fit to play some part. It seems a bench role is the best PSG can hope for.

In defence, Presnel Kimpembe has just returned and this match may come too soon for him to be a starter. Sergio Ramos has looked his age recently but is probably still going to be in the lineup in preference to Danilo Pereira or 17-year-old El Chadaille Bitshiabu.

PSG Motivation

All focus is on this match. Ligue 1 has taken a back seat in recent weeks with key players being rested or playing one fixture per week.

PSG will go all out to win this first leg and be able to progress with a draw in Munich.

Bayern Form

Bayern have lost one match all season, a shock 1-0 defeat at Augsburg in September. They responded in imperious fashion by winning 12 of their next 13 matches with only Dortmund taking a 2-2 draw. They scored 38 goals in the 10 matches after that slip-up. Die Roten had a slow start after the World Cup break and drew 1-1 in three consecutive fixtures.  

At RB Leipzig, they led 1-0 before conceding. Bayern then required a 90th-minute goal to seal a 1-1 home draw with FC Cologne. They again squandered a lead after that at home to Eintracht Frankfurt. Coming into this fixture, they won two Bundesliga matches in a row: 4-2 at Wolfsburg and 3-0 vs Bochum over the weekend.

Bayern Team News

Bayern will without captain Manuel Neuer in goal due to injury so a new signing, 34-year-old Yann Sommer from Borussia Mönchengladbach, will start. Defender Lucas Hernandez is out long-term so it’ll be either Dayot Upamecano or Benjamin Pavard alongside Mattjis De Ligt.

Bayern will without captain Manuel Neuer in goal due to injury so a new signing, 34-year-old Yann Sommer from Borussia Mönchengladbach, will start. Defender Lucas Hernandez is out long-term so it’ll be either Dayot Upamecano or Benjamin Pavard alongside Mattjis De Ligt.

Bayern Motivation

Bayern will be eager for revenge after being knocked out by PSG in 2020. They will try to control proceedings and will look to win in Paris.

A draw would be a good result ahead of taking the Parisians to Munich in three weeks’ time.

Key Stats

PSG have lost their last 2 matches

PSG have won 6 of their last 7 home UCL matches

PSG have conceded in 5 of their last 6 at home in the Champions League

Bayern have lost just one of their 29 away UCL matches since 2017

Bayern won 1-0 at PSG in April 2020

Bayern Munich have scored in 19 of their last 20 away UCL fixture

Verdict

This should be a great match but a lot depends on how close the teams are to full strength; it may be worth seeing the XI’s before placing your bets. I can see Bayern avoiding a defeat at PSG in this match.

Best Bet: Bayern Munich to score over 1.5 goals at 1.90

Goalscorer Tip: Messi anytime scorer at 2.50

Value Bet: Bayern Munich win and Over 2.5 goals at 3.40

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis