Bayern Munich v Barcelona – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Bayern Munich faces Barcelona in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday. Die Roten has secured the top spot and faced a Barca side desperate for a win to ensure progression to the knockout stages. Should they fail to win, a Benfica win in the other matchday six fixture would see Xavi’s side drop into the Europa League.

Bayern Form

Bayern has cruised through their UEFA Champions League group with five wins in five matches with 19 goals scored. They thrashed Barcelona 3-0 at the Camp Nou, beat Dinamo Kiev 5-0, won 4-0 in Benfica, and they 5-2 at home against Benfica. They were made to work hard in Ukraine on matchday five to win 2-1.

In the Bundesliga, they have surprisingly lost two of their first 14 matches. They lost 2-1 at Augsburg in mid-November before a 1-0 home win against Arminia Bielefeld. They went into their last match against Dortmund just one point clear of their opponents. A controversial second-half penalty sealed a 3-2 away win to open their lead to four points.

Bayern Team News

Bayern has been without three of their unvaccinated players in recent weeks as they were all ruled out with COVID-19. It is not expected that any of Joshua Kimmich, Michael Cuisance, and Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting will be back for this match.

Marcel Sabitzer has a calf injury and misses out as does Josip Stanisic. Lucas Hernandez went off injured against Dortmund and won’t be risked. Jamal Musiala is hoping for a start in midfield in this dead rubber. A pretty strong XI is expected from Bayern despite there being nothing to play.

Bayern Motivation

Bayern will want to win this match and end the group with a perfect record. Motivation will be there but not as high as usual with nothing to play for.

Checking the starting XI an hour before kickoff may also give a good indication of how seriously the match is being taken.

Barcelona Form

A run of just three wins in nine matches saw Ronald Koeman sacked and club legend Xavi appointed. He took over a side with just six points from four Champions League group stage matches including 3-0 thrashing against Bayern Munich and Benfica.

Xavi won his first La Liga match 1-0 against Espanyol but could only oversee a 0-0 home draw with Benfica on matchday five, a very damaging result. His last two matches have seen an impressive 3-1 win away at Villarreal before a shock 1-0 home loss to Real Betis. The Catalan giants only mustered three shots on target all game.

Barcelona Team News

Barca could again be without key left-winger Ansu Fati due to injury. They are still without two other forwards in Martin Braithwaite and Sergio Aguero. Pedri and Sergi Roberto are also absent and Gavi will surely miss out after a serious-looking head injury over the weekend.

Gerard Pigue, Eric Garcia, and Frenkie de Jong should return to start. Spanish media is also reporting that Ousmane Dembele could play on the wing with teenage winger Abde Ezzalzouli perhaps not trusted for this huge match.

Barcelona Motivation

Barcelona has to play to win this match. That is the only way to ensure they qualify for the last 16. A draw would take them to eight points but Benfica winning at home to Dinamo Kiev would also take them to eight with a better goal difference and head-to-head record.

Barca is playing a more heavy possession-based style under Xavi but he may need to compromise those principles in this match or Bayern could revel in the space they get on transitions.

Key Stats

The last 6 meetings between these sides have seen over 2.5 goals

Bayern have won 5 of the last 6 matches against Barcelona

Bayern have won their 5 CL group matches with a 19-3 aggregate

FC Bayern have won 10 of their last 11 home CL matches

Barca have lost 5 of their last 13 matches (all comps)

Barcelona have lost 4 of their last 8 CL matches, conceding 14 goals

Prediction

This match is tough to call only because Bayern could rest players and have nothing to play for. Usually, a big win would be tipped such as the gulf between these sides. Barcelona is desperate for a win and may leave themselves vulnerable defensively.

Best Bet: Bayern Munich win at 1.60
Alternative Bet: Bayern Munich win and over 2.5 goals at 2.10
Multiplier Leg: Bayern Munich win/draw double chance + over 2.5 goals at 1.74
Goalscorer Tip: Lewandowski first goalscorer at 2.90

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis