Tottenham v Chelsea – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Tottenham host Chelsea in the Carabao Cup semi-final second leg on Wednesday. The Blues hold a 2-0 first leg advantage having won a week ago and won 3-0 at Spurs earlier this season. Antonio Conte’s side has seen a slight dip in performances of late but knows that one goal would bring this tie back to life. Thomas Tuchel will hope to have two key players back in contention.

Tottenham Form

Spurs have seen much improved results since Conte took over. In the league, the side have five wins and three draws since the Italian arrived. Their best display saw a 2-2 home draw with Liverpool having produced 3.4 xG in an excellent counter-attacking performance. A 3-0 home win against Crystal Palace followed albeit facing ten men for 53 minutes.

Tottenham then faced a Southampton team with ten men for 51 minutes but could only draw 1-1. They were toothless in a last-gasp 1-0 win at Watford before being thoroughly outplayed to lose 2-0 at Chelsea. Their last match saw a 3-1 FA Cup win against Morecambe but their performance was very poor until Lucas Moura and Harry Kane were introduced to rescue things.

Tottenham Team News

Conte should have Eric Dier back to play in his back three. Cristian Romero remains absent. Sergio Reguilon is set for a recall at left wingback after being benched for the last two matches.

Spurs will be without Son in attack due to injury whilst Steven Bergwijn is doubtful. Bryan Gil or Dele Alli could replace Son in the front three. Another option is to start Harry Winks as an additional central midfielder and move to a 3-5-2 formation.

Tottenham Motivation

Spurs will attack and try for an early goal. That would get the crowd highly charged as they look to overturn a 2-0 deficit. Should Tottenham fall behind, Conte may need to shift to a back four as he did in the first leg to search for goals.

Motivation will be high as their heated rivals and with a place in a cup final up for grabs.

Chelsea Form

Chelsea has lost one of their last 23 matches in all competitions. The side has had a drop in form at home with five draws in their last six in the league at Stamford Bridge.

A 3-1 win at Aston Villa was followed by conceding late to draw 1-1 at home with Brighton. A high-intensity 2-2 home draw with Liverpool came next, having been 2-0 behind. Chelsea then won comfortably in the first leg of the League Cup semi-final against Spurs before a resounding 5-1 home win against non-league Chesterfield in the FA Cup.

Chelsea Team News

Edouard Mendy is absent on international duty with Senegal whilst Reece James and Ben Chilwell are injured. Thiago Silva and N’Golo Kante could both return to the squad after COVID-19 but may only be a sub with a match against Man City on Saturday. Kepa will again play in goal.

Thomas Tuchel will have to decide whether to continue with a back four, as he used in the first leg, with Kai Havertz partnering Romelu Lukaku upfront. Both Mateo Kovacic and Andreas Christensen should start having not featured in the first leg.

Chelsea Motivation

The Blues will be hugely motivated to get the job done and make a cup final. Tuchel’s side is expected to have the majority of the possession and to look to score first to give themselves a real cushion.

Should Chelsea lead 1-0 in this match, Tuchel could go defensive with extra defenders or defensive midfielder (specifically Thiago Silva or Kante) coming on to protect the lead.

Key Stats

Spurs have lost once in 9 home matches (W7, D2)

THFC have conceded in 4 of their last 5 home matches

Spurs have lost their last 3 home PL matches against Chelsea

Chelsea have lost just 1 of their last 10 away matches

Chelsea have conceded in 10 of their last 13 matches (all comps)

Chelsea have scored 2+ goals in 7 of their last 10 away matches in all competitions

CFC have lost 1 of their last 23 matches (all comps)

Verdict

This should be an interesting match tactically, depending on whether Tuchel uses a back three or a back four. Spurs have enough to score but Chelsea is hard to beat (1 loss in 23) so should be able to take at least a draw.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score at 1.74
Alternative Bet: Chelsea win at 2.55
Correct Score Tip: Spurs 1-2 Chelsea at 10.00
Multiplier Leg: Chelsea/Draw double chance + over 1.5 goals at 2.00
Goalscorer Tip: Kane and Lukaku to both score (anytime) at 5.30

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis