AC Milan v Napoli – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

AC Milan welcomes Napoli to the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on Sunday evening. The defending Serie A champions face last season’s third-placed team in a massive clash. Both teams have four wins and two draws in six league matches this season as they chase the Scudetto crown. This match will be slightly overshadowed by the absences of key attackers on both sides as Rafael Leao and Victor Osimhen are absent.

AC Milan Form

Milan haven’t lost since January in Serie A and have started this season well, going unbeaten in six Serie A matches (W4, D2) and having taken four points from two UEFA Champions League group fixtures. After a 1-1 draw at Atalanta, Milan beat Bologna 2-0 at home before another draw, 0-0 at Sassuolo. That put some question marks over Stefano Pioli’s team but they responded by beating Inter Milan 3-2 in the Milan derby.

The Rossoneri then drew 1-1 at Salzburg to start their European campaign with a relatively tepid display. Last weekend, Milan won 2-1 at Sampdoria despite playing the second half with ten men. In midweek, they beat Dinamo Zagreb 3-1 in the Champions League as Olivier Giroud, Alexis Saelemaekers, and Tommaso Pobega got the goals.

AC Milan Team News

The big news for Milan is that left winger Rafael Leao (three goals, six assists this season) is out due to suspension. The likelihood is that Saelemaekers will shift over to the left with Charles De Ketelaere or Junior Messias playing as the right winger.

Another option is for Brahim Diaz to play from the left with an extra central midfielder like Pobega coming into the XI. Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Divock Origi are both injuries, as is winger Ante Rebic, so Olivier Giroud will again carry the striking burden.

AC Milan Motivation

Milan will go all out to win this match. They’re an attacking side but are rarely left wide open. If Pioli goes with an attacking 4-2-3-1, it’s clear he wants to play on the front foot. If it’s instead a 4-3-2-1 with Diaz wide and more steel in midfield, then he’s looking to control the match.

With the injuries in the frontline and Leao suspended, there won’t be many options to turn this match from the bench.

Napoli Form

Napoli are having a fine season with Luciano Spalletti getting a constant tune out of his side even with injuries up front. Their eight matches this season have seen six wins and two draws. In Serie A, it’s four wins and two wins whilst they have taken six points in the Champions League from two matches (7-1 aggregate).

After successive league draws, Partenopei won 2-1 at Lazio and destroyed Liverpool 4-1 at home in a match where they also missed a penalty. An 89^th minute goal then brought a 1-0 win at Spezia before they went to Ibrox in midweek and beat Rangers 3-0.

Napoli Team News

Top striker Victor Osimhen is out with a hamstring injury, which is a real blow. Giovanni Simeone and Giacomo Raspadori are battling to lead the line. The former scored against Liverpool whilst the latter netted off the bench in midweek, so both will plenty to the table in Osimhen’s absence.

Tanguy Ndombele scored from the subs bench in midweek but he is not expected to be handed a start here. Defensive midfielder Diego Demme is also an absentee for this match.

Napoli Motivation

Napoli are an attacking side and looks to play with plenty of pace and movement on the counter attack. Their eight matches this season have seen them net three or more goals in four of those, so they can punish teams once matches open up.

A draw from this fixture would be a decent result for Spalletti’s team especially with Osimhen absent. They won’t play for a point initially but may settle for one in the second half.

Key Stats

Milan are 22 Serie A matches without defeat

Milan are 11 home Serie A matches unbeaten (W8, D3)

Milan are winless in 7 home Serie A matches vs Napoli

Napoli have lost 1 of their last 15 away Serie A matches

Napoli have scored in 16 of their last 17 away matches (Serie A)

Verdict

This should be a very good match, even without two star attractions in Rafael Leao and Victor Osimhen. Napoli have a brilliant record away at Milan and are very good travellers. Both sides should score but I see this ending in a draw or possibly even a shock win for the away side if they can score first.

Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.62
Alternative Bet: Draw at 3.35
Value Bet: Score Draw at 4.05
Multiplier Leg: Napoli/Draw double chance + over 1.5 goals at 2.30

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis