Real Madrid v Valencia – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Real Madrid faces Valencia in the Spanish Super Cup semi-final on Wednesday night in Saudi Arabia. Los Blancos won last season’s La Liga title to reach this stage, but they come into the match after a surprise league defeat to Villarreal. They are sitting in the bottom half of La Liga under coach Gennaro Gattuso and are looking to kick-start this season.

Real Madrid Form

Carlo Ancelotti’s side have been in quite a poor form of late. They went into the World Cup break on the back of a few iffy performances, losing 3-2 at RB Leipzig in the UEFA Champions League, drawing 1-1 at home with Girona, and losing 3-2 at Rayo Vallecano all in their final six fixtures before the hiatus.

Since returning to action, they’ve not been at their best. They won 2-0 at Real Valladolid but it was 0-0 until the 81^st minute before a penalty broke the deadlock. They then beat Segunda Division side Cacereno just 1-0 in the Copa del Rey with a strong XI. Over the weekend, they were beaten 2-1 at Villarreal in a game where they gave up 3.05 Expected Goals.

Real Madrid Team News

Midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni and defender David Alaba are both set to miss this match with injuries. Dani Carvajal is set to return so Antonio Rudiger will play centrally next to Eder Militao. Nacho could replace Ferland Mendy at left-back after an error by the latter against Valencia.

Fede Valverde or Eduardo Camavinga will replace Tchouameni in the engine room. Rodrygo will hope to start on the right if it is Valverde drops back.

Real Madrid Motivation

Madrid have won this competition a dozen times and will take it very seriously. A victory here could set up a final against Barcelona on Sunday, which is a big motivation.

Coach Ancelotti could set his side up a bit more defensively in this one having promised a “solid block” after his side’s defensive woes against Villarreal.

Valencia Form

Valencia sits 11th in La Liga with just 19 points from 16 matches. After a decent run of nine points from five matches (WDWDD), they lost 2-1 at home to Mallorca and 1-0 at home to Barcelona. They recovered to go into the World Cup interval in better shape by drawing 1-1 at Real Sociedad and beating Real Betis 3-0.

After resuming post-World Cup action, they lost 2-1 at Villarreal. A 3-0 away win at lower league La Nucia followed in the Copa del Rey. Over the weekend, they were beaten 1-0 at home by Cadiz, who languish in the relegation zone. Despite having 74% possession, Gattuso’s side only produced 0.44 Expected Goals with just 0.14 xG from open play.

Valencia Team News

Gennaro Gattuso is without on-loan Barcelona midfielder Nico Gonzalez due to injury. Right winger Samu Castillejo was injured over the weekend and missed out after wrist surgery. Justin Kluivert could be his replacement down the right.

Edinson Cavani will lead the line and Yunus Musah will provide energy in midfield. Gattuso may consider dropping Ilaix Moriba in midfield and starting an extra centre-back, according to reports.

Valencia Motivation

Valencia will be fully focused on pulling off an upset and reaching the Super Cup final over the weekend. They’re expected to play very defensively and use the pace of their wingers on the counter attack. If losing in the second half, it may become about damage control to not damage their low confidence any further.

Key Stats

Real Madrid have won a record 12 Spanish Super Cups

Real Madrid have won their last 3 matches against Valencia

Madrid have lost 2 of their last 4 La Liga matches & have conceded in 5 of their last 6

Valencia have won just once in 8 La Liga matches (4 losses in 6)

Valencia have kept just 1 clean sheet in 10 matches in La Liga

Verdict

Real Madrid are below their best and have a couple of key injuries to contend with. However, they face a Valencia side with four losses in their last six La Liga matches. Los Blancos should have more than enough to win this match by a good margin.

Best Bet: Real Madrid win (-1 spread) at 2.40

Alternative Bet: Real Madrid to win + Benzema anytime goalscorer at 2.52

High Value Bet: Benzema to score 2 or more goals at 4.75

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis