Arsenal v Bayern Munich – Preview, Predictions, And Best Bets

Arsenal host Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League quarter-final first leg on Tuesday. The Gunners sit top of the Premier League table whilst Die Roten have lost five of their last ten matches. Mikel Arteta’s side are looking to reach the semi-finals for the first time since 2009.

Arsenal Form

Arsenal comes into this tie in great form. They beat Porto on penalties in the last round after a 1-0 away loss and a 1-0 home win. In league action, they have ten wins and a draw in 11 matches. Having scored freely in the first eight of those matches (33 goals), they’ve been rock-solid defensively of late.

A 0-0 draw at Man City saw them only allow one shot on target. A 2-0 home win over Luton Town followed with just 0.34 xG and one shot on target allowed. On Saturday, they went to Brighton and won 3-0. They produced 3.39 xG and allowed the Seagulls a paltry 0.53 xG.

Arsenal Team News

Mikel Arteta has Jurrien Timber nearing a return in defence but this match comes too soon. There are no other injuries to contend with.

There are two question mark positions. Oleks Zinchenko and Jawub Kiwior are competing for the left-back spot. On the left wing, Leandro Trossard could be preferred to Gabriel Jesus and Gabriel Martinelli.

Arsenal Motivation

The Gunners have Aston Villa at home next Sunday, but this match will take their full attention.

Arsenal have a great chance of making it to the semi-finals and they will see Bayern as being fragile defensively. Arteta’s side will attack and then protect their lead in a compact shape.

Bayern Form

Bayern’s domestic season has been a disaster. Their first ten matches of the calendar year saw four losses, including a 3-0 thrashing at champions-elect Bayer Leverkusen. They reached this stage by overturning a 1-0 first-leg loss away at Lazio.

Die Roten briefly showed improved form, beating RB Leipzig 2-1 and thrashing Lazio 3-0 in the second leg to reach the quarter-finals. Two big wins followed, 8-1 vs Mainz and 5-2 at Darmstadt. A 2-0 home loss to Dortmund saw an even match. A 3-2 loss at FC Heidenheim saw a 2-0 lead surrendered on Saturday in a dire second half.

Bayern Team News

Young midfielder Alexsandar Pavlovic may return from illness and may be thrust into the starting XI. Right-backs Sacha Boey and Bouna Sarr are out injured.

Manuel Neuer, Kingsley Coman, Leroy Sane, and Noussair Mazraoui all missed the weekend defeat due to injury and remain in serious doubt for this one.

Bayern Motivation

Bayern vaguely refocused themselves after Thomas Tuchel announced his departure in May. Things have regressed of late though.

All focus is on the Champions League now with the Bundesliga title race over. The players should be able to rally themselves to try to leave London with a first-leg draw.

Key Stats

Arsenal have won 11 of their last 13 matches (39 goals scored)

Arsenal have 4 clean sheets in a row.

Arsenal have lost their last 3 matches vs Bayern (all 5-1 defeats)

Bayern Munich have lost just once in 6 trips to London clubs (3 wins in a row, 15-3 aggregate)

Bayern’s Harry Kane has scored 14 goals in 19 matches vs Arsenal.

Bayern have lost 13 of 51 matches under Thomas Tuchel.

Bayern Munich have conceded in 11 of their last 12 matches (18 conceded in the last 10 games)

Verdict

Right now, one team is flying, and the other is limping. This Arsenal side can be free-flowing or defend solidly in numbers. It’s hard to see past them winning this first leg.

Best Bet: Arsenal win at 1.76
Value Bet: Arsenal to score Over 2.5 goals at 3.15
Goalscorer Tip: Kai Havertz to score anytime at 2.90

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis