Rugby World Cup Final Prediction – New Zealand v South Africa

It’s a rematch 28 years in the making as the Springboks and All Blacks battle it out in the Rugby World Cup final at Stade de France in Saint-Denis on Saturday (9pm kick-off SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Rugby’s greatest rivals famously met in the 1995 final, with hosts South Africa – helped by some Madiba magic and a sold-out Ellis Park crowd – edged favourites New Zealand 15-12 in the ultimate extra-time thriller thanks to a Joel Stransky drop goal.

Almost three decades later, they’ll meet on the grandest stage of them all again, this time as the two top-ranked sides in the world with each determined to secure a record fourth world championship.

South Africa, who won their second crown in 2007, are looking to retain the title they won in 2019, a feat only the All Blacks have managed when they added victories in 2011 and 2015 to their maiden triumph in 1987. 

As was the case in 1995, the Springboks are once again the underdogs, and they wouldn’t want it any other way. It’s a position they relish, a place where they produce their best work.

Their last two contrasting performances were prime examples as they were at their best to beat vaunted France 29-28 in an all-time classic quarter-final and at their lowest as overwhelming favourites when they burgled a 16-15 win over England at the weekend.

The All Blacks, meanwhile, followed up their impressive 28-24 quarter-final win over then-world No 1 Ireland with a 44-6 annihilation of toothless Argentina last Friday. The character they showed in the takedown of the Irish and the ease with which they clinically crushed Los Pumas were a rebirth for the men in black.

The Ian Foster era has been anything but kind to the Kiwis. It’s seen record lows and the feared aura of the All Blacks being lost, but much of the mediocrity will be forgiven if Sam Cane and company give their coach the perfect send-off on Saturday night.

The Boks have been inconsistent since their triumph in Japan four years ago, but their plan has been clear. Most of the matchday 23 that massacred England 32-12 in the 2019 final will line up against the reinvigorated All Blacks, for many of whom it’ll be their World Cup swansong. They, too, aim to give their coach Jacques Nienaber the fondest of farewells.

For number one-ranked South Africa, the biggest question is where they’ll draw energy from after looking lethargic in last Saturday’s great escape. Before you can start talking tactics, it begins with fronting up physically, playing with the requisite intensity and sustaining it over 80 (or more) minutes.

There’s no doubt New Zealand are the fresher team, having had a much easier go at it last weekend and an extra day to recover. South Africa, though, are renowned for rising to the biggest occasions, not only in the World Cup but in do-or-die British & Irish Lions series deciders in 2009 and 2021 as well.

The men in green and gold have an unrivalled ability to tap into the passion and support of their country, to play for something greater than the game and inspire hope as they did in their previous Webb Ellis Cup triumphs. That history suggests the pride of Mzansi will be up for the fight.

That being said, they can ill afford the slow starts they had in both of their playoff games this campaign and in the Rugby Championship clash in Auckland in July that cost them the game and effectively saw their arch-rivals secure the Southern Hemisphere silverware.

It’s also no secret that the Kiwis will look to follow France’s blueprint of playing a fast-paced game, limiting set pieces and stabbing short attacking kicks through while the Boks will bank on their two-pronged power game with the starters doing the softening up and the Bomb Squad serving as the second wave of attack to overwhelm the All Blacks as they did in the record 35-7 win in their last meeting at Twickenham in August.

They have the players, the game plan, the experience and the history to dig deep when it matters most, making the Boks value underdogs to defy the odds and make it a fantastic fourth title in an epic encounter.

Prediction: South Africa by 3.

Suggested Bet: South Africa at 2.15.

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.