Undisputed v Undisputed: Canelo v Charlo Preview and Prediction

The legendary Saul “Canelo” Alvarez puts his undisputed super middleweight championship on the line against undisputed junior middleweight king Jermell Charlo at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

Card starts at 2 AM Sunday SA time

Canelo Alvarez (1.25) v Jermell Charlo (3.95) (Undisputed Super Middleweight Championship))

It’s a blockbuster clash of champions as two of boxing’s best collide in the fight capital of the world. 

Canelo, the long-time face of the sport and one of the greatest to ever do it, seeks to preserve his place at the top of the mountain. 

Charlo, meanwhile, looks to take his career to the next level. Daring to be great, he’s moving up not one but two weight classes, from 154 to 168 pounds, for his legend-making moment. 

Will he seize it or come up short? Let’s dive in… 

Pound-for-pound great Canelo has been THE man for years. He’s still only 33, the same age as Charlo, but has almost twice as many pro bouts under his belt. Sporting a phenomenal record of 59-2-2 with 39 knockouts, the Mexican megastar might be past his prime, but he’s far from finished as well. 

After suffering his first loss in nearly a decade when he moved up to light heavyweight to challenge Dmitry Bivol for the WBA championship in 2022, he got back on track with a pair of decision victories, first closing out the trilogy with long-time rival Gennady Golovkin last September before easing past John Ryder in May. 

For who he is and what he’s accomplished, Canelo is held to a different standard than just about every other pugilist on the planet and as such, some have been critical of his last two performances. The real issue is he lacked motivation for what was, with respect, two easy fights. He has the fire back for this one as Charlo’s a legitimate threat.  

The challenger, who’s 35-1-1 with 19 knockouts, is fast, athletic and aggressive. He’s a heavy-hitter at 154, but it remains to be seen how that translates to 168. 

It’s imperative for him to get Canelo’s respect early. If not, Canelo will walk him down and bludgeon him. At 6’0, he’s the taller man but Canelo’s a dense destroyer when he doesn’t have deterring power coming his way. 

The game plan for “Iron Man” will be to stay on the outside and maximise his two-and-a-half-inch reach advantage. 

For as good as Charlo is and as solid as his resume is, it’s not near Canelo’s calibre. He’s never faced anyone close to Canelo’s level or fought on as big a stage as he will this weekend. 

Ring rust is also a concern as his last fight, which saw him stop Brian Castano in their rematch after their first fight ended in a split draw, was 16 months ago.  

He’s hungry, good, smart and slick enough to make it a competitive fight, but Canelo packs the type of power he’s never felt down at junior middleweight. 

A knockout is tempting, but Canelo’s last three fights went the distance and this one should as well. The most likely scenario is that Canelo will dictate terms, land the cleaner punches and do more damage en route to a decision victory.

Prediction: Canelo by decision.

Best Bet: Canelo by decision at 1.90.

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.