Leave No Doubt: Paul v Woodley 2 Preview and Prediction

YouTuber Jake Paul and former UFC champion Tyron Woodley will both be out to prove a point when they run it back at the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Jake Paul (1.36) v Tyron Woodley (3.00) (192-Pound Catchweight Bout)

The card starts at 4 AM Monday SA time

The most loathed figure in boxing is back and faces a familiar foe in future UFC Hall of Famer Woodley, whom he defeated by split decision in August to remain unbeaten in his short boxing career. It was Paul’s fourth professional bout, while it marked Woodley’s boxing debut.

The brash social media superstar was supposed to face Tommy Fury this weekend but the brother of heavyweight king Tyson Fury was forced to withdraw due to injury some two weeks ago. Paul quickly pivoted and agreed to grant Woodley the rematch he’d gone as far as getting an “I love Jake Paul” tattoo for in the hopes of securing.

The former UFC welterweight champion’s moniker “The Chosen One” has never been more prophetic and he now has an opportunity to give “The Problem Child” his comeuppance. That Woodley took the fight on short notice plays into Paul being a bigger favourite than he was in the first meeting, however, I’m not putting too much stock into that.

As a lifelong wrestler turned fighter, the mixed martial arts legend’s always in top shape and claims he’s been training the whole time in anticipation of Fury dropping out. Whether that’s the case or not, the real difference conditioning-wise comes in Paul being 15 years younger than the 39-year-old power puncher from Ferguson.

Used to competing in three or five five-minute rounds inside the Octagon, Woodley’s cardio held up commendably over the eight three-minute rounds he shared the ring with Paul with and he would’ve gained invaluable insight into the different pacing of the sweet science and how and when he can put his foot on the gas to get the desired result this time around.

Having come up short the first go-around, Woodley has little choice but to increase his output. That’s not to suggest he should go out guns blazing from the start but rather, he has to be the one coming forward and staying in Paul’s face. The limited aggression and activity from him in the first fight was no isolated incident.

He hasn’t been the same since losing his welterweight championship to Kamaru Usman at UFC 235 in 2019. Killer instinct fizzled into tentativeness and saw him suffer two more punishing shutouts against Gilbert Burns and Colby Covington after losing his belt.

The only time he showed the inner dog of old was against Vicente Luque, who he nearly knocked out before being finished in what proved to be his final UFC fight in March. He’s been branded “The Frozen One” by fellow former UFC fighter Dan Hardy and if he doesn’t shake the stifling affliction this weekend, Paul will probably prevail on points again.

Fortunately, for everyone except possibly Paul’s sake, it just so happens the 24-year-old has thrown Woodley the perfect bone at the perfect time. As we’ve come to expect in the bizarre boxing world of the younger Paul brother, his bouts usually come with a bet of some sort such as the embarrassing aforementioned tattoo wager.

With rumours raging that he has a “no knockout clause” built into his bout agreements, Paul’s made a fight-changing power play by offering Woodley a $500,000 knockout bonus. It’s a ballsy move, one meant to kill two birds with one stone and frankly, one the rematch needed after the lacklustre opening act.

Prediction and Suggested Bets

With crisper, straighter shots, Paul’s more fundamentally sound in boxing terms and is, therefore, the rightful favourite. Woodley has a significant power advantage, which saw him blast Paul into the ropes in the fourth round of the maiden meeting and it’ll be on him whether this is another drab affair or makes up for the underwhelming first fight.

Woodley’s very relevancy in combat sports is on the line. Lose to the YouTuber a second time and his boxing career is over before it truly begins. He still has the explosiveness and power that propelled him to UFC glory, it’s just a case of emerging from his slumber and maximising those gifts. If anything can unleash the beast within Woodley, it’s being backed into the do-or-die corner and I believe it’ll do exactly that. Woodley via knockout, most likely under five rounds.

Best Bet: Woodley by KO/TKO/DQ at 4.50.

Alternative Bet: Under 6.5 rounds at 2.25.

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.