Once And For All: Fury v Wilder 3 – Tyson KO Victory Predicted

The score will be settled once and for all when Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder conclude their titanic trilogy with the WBC heavyweight championship hanging in the balance at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Tyson Fury v Deontay Wilder (WBC World Heavyweight Championship)

The card starts at 2 AM Sunday SA time

The rivalry between the two greatest heavyweights of their generation has been a rollercoaster of epic proportions, one with twists and turns unlike any other in the history of the sport. After their all-time classic first encounter ended in a split-decision draw at the Staples Center in December 2018, Fury scored a dominant win in the rematch 14 months later.

On an electric night in the MGM Grand Garden Arena, “The Gypsy King” made good on his promise to walk Wilder down. The brash Brit battered and bloodied his American arch-rival to the point that Wilder’s corner threw in the towel in the seventh round.

Six-foot-nine Fury, the lineal heavyweight king, stood tall as he seized the WBC championship following a symphony of sweet science savagery that extended his undefeated record to 30 wins with one draw. “The Bronze Bomber” didn’t handle tasting defeat for the first time in what was his 43rd fight well, making a myriad of excuses, from blaming his “too-heavy” elaborate ring-walk costume for sapping his energy to his water being spiked and Fury’s gloves being loaded with a foreign object to name a few.

The lopsided nature of Fury’s victory meant attention immediately turned to the long-anticipated super fight and unification bout between him and fellow English ace Anthony Joshua, the then-WBA, IBF, WBO and IBO title-holder. However, the planned dream match was put on hold when an arbitrator ruled Fury had to honour the rematch clause Wilder had in place.

Originally scheduled to go down in July, the third and final battle was postponed after Fury contracted Covid. Now, finally, the behemoths return to the fight capital of the world to close the book on their bitter rivalry. The underdog in the first two fights, it’s no surprise that Fury’s now the favourite (1.30) following his masterful massacre last February.

The big question is, can Wilder – who comes back as a 2.30 underdog – turn things around after being so thoroughly outboxed? For one, the six-foot-seven savage’s superhuman knockout power alone means one can never count him out. With all but one of his 41 wins coming by devastating stoppage, he’s the most destructive force in heavyweight boxing history. For context, the great “Iron” Mike Tyson’s knockout ratio was 78.6% – Wilder’s is a staggering 93.2%.

Granted, Fury was able to rise off the canvas like a zombie after he took a clean sledgehammer-like blow in the final round of the first fight and used his deceptive footwork to bop and weave past big shots in the second. However, the threat of a Wilder knockout remains for however long the fight goes.

On the all-important tactical and technical side, Wilder clearly needed change and he acted swiftly, axing trainer Mark Breland, who threw in the towel. The 35-year-old brought in Malik Scott to spearhead his camp with former head trainer Jay Deas moving to an assistant role, with Don House joining the set-up in mid-September.

Scott’s appointment as new head trainer came as a surprise given his history with Wilder. He challenged the Alabama-born brute back in 2014 and was knocked out in just 94 seconds. A capable if not elite fighter who retired with a record of 38-4, Scott had a similarly ill-fated run-in with Fury, it was revealed during the July press conference to hype the trilogy bout.

With Wilder going mute, the ever-outspoken Fury traded verbal barbs with Scott instead, alluding to a sparring session the pair had several years ago. “You can’t expect him to do something you couldn’t do,” Fury started. Scott replied, “Like what, knock you out?” to which Fury answered: “Yeah, like that.”

Scott then revealed: “Me and you never fought Tyson. You bust my eardrum when we sparred” to which Fury responded: “We did spar, didn’t we? And we know what happened there.” Scott replied: “You’re a 260 pound man that can fight, you bust my eardrum the first time we sparred.

“That’s not something to brag about, you can fight, that’s what you do…The first day he bust my eardrum, then I come back and boxed him the next day. Then the next day it happened, I couldn’t hear and I couldn’t continue to box, this s**t happens in boxing.”

In true Fury fashion, he ended the conversation by quipping, “As we’re on the topic of ear-busting, don’t we find it funny that I bust both these guys eardrums, trainer and fighter? Crazy statistic.”

So, what is the strategy Scott and company have come up with for Wilder to reclaim his crown? Well, similar to the lead up to the second fight when Fury happily gave away his game plan, the newest member of Wilder’s coaching set-up let the cat out of the bag, revealing that instead of the usual headhunting, the former champion will target the body.

“We’re going to fight every minute of every round, we’re going to box him and we’re going to break down the body. It’s a bigger target, and you see how big Fury’s body is – it’s a bigger target to hit. We’re going to put that money in the bank, then break him down and knock him out,” said House.

It’s a sound strategy, but boxing’s not called the sweet science for nothing. It takes years to transform a brawler like Wilder into a tactician. Executing a new game plan will be a major challenge, especially against a fleet-footed, cerebral and vastly superior pure boxer who’ll be firing back from all sorts of angles.

Tyson famously said, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth” and I can’t see Wilder sticking to a new strategy once adversity comes knocking. On top of that, technique has always been Wilder’s one glaring weakness and a lifetime of bad habits can’t be ironed out in little over a year.

Fury, in turn, found Wilder’s kryptonite and will once again “bully the bully” i.e. back him up with relentless forward pressure. For him, it’s all about following the blueprint of the second fight and ensuring he tightens up his defences even further.

Prediction: Both men have vowed to finish the other. Again, Wilder always has a puncher’s chance and at 2.30 outright or 3.75 by knockout, “The Bronze Bomber” will have solid backing. However, it’s the crisper and more cerebral Fury who’ll make good on that promise. Fury via knockout.

Prediction and Suggested Bets

Best Bet: Fury by knockout at 1.86.

Alternative Bets: Having finished Wilder in the seventh last time, “The Gypsy King” says he’ll consider it as a loss if he can’t get the American out of there sooner this time around. With the blueprint in place, two unders pop off the screen – Fury under 7.5 rounds at 1.88 or under 6.5 rounds at 2.25.

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.