UFC Fight Night: Yan v Dvalishvili Predictions

Former bantamweight champion Petr Yan meets Merab Dvalishvili in a pivotal main event clash at UFC Las Vegas on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

The Octagon will shake in the co-headliner at the Theater in the Virgin Hotel as heavyweights Alexander Volkov and Alexandr Romanov collide while top-10 light heavyweight finishers Nikita Krylov and Ryan Spann square off in the featured bout.

The first half of the main card consists of a featherweight fight between Ricardo Ramos and Austin Lingo, a bantamweight bout between Said Nurmagomedov and Jonathan Martinez and a light heavyweight tilt between the debuting Vitor Petrino and Anton Turkalj.  

MAIN CARD (from 1 AM Sunday SA time):

Petr Yan (1.39) v Merab Dvalishvili (3.15) (Bantamweight)

This weekend’s headliner is a classic striker versus grappler battle between members of the bantamweight elite.

Second-ranked Yan (16-4) has arguably the best boxing in the UFC while third-ranked Dvalishvili (15-4) is a wrestling juggernaut. Simply put, whoever dictates where the fight takes place – on the feet or on the ground – will get his hand raised and move one step closer to a title shot. 

Yan has suffered back-to-back losses for the first time in his career in his most recent fights. Both were by split decision. He succumbed to champion Aljamain Sterling in their rematch and was then edged by Sean O’Malley last October. It must be said the general consensus is the Russian was robbed in the “Suga” showdown.

Dvalishvili has had no such worries. He’s on an eight-fight win streak (all but one by decision) that includes victories over Marlon Moraes, Cody Stamann and John Dodson. His latest triumph last August was the biggest of his career as he controlled and outpointed the legendary Jose Aldo, whom Yan beat for the title in 2020.

The Georgian grappler has in-depth knowledge of Yan and his striking excellence as he helped prepare good friend and training partner Sterling for their two title matches in 2021 and 2022. For his part, Yan knows he can expect a similar stylistic challenge to that of title-holding “Funkmaster” without the submission threat. 

Dvalishvili’s a takedown spammer, averaging an astonishing 6.54 takedowns per 15 minutes. His non-stop wrestling and tireless gas tank has earned him the nickname “Machine” and will make him that much more of a nightmare in his first five-rounder. He’s a grinder through and through, one who’s heavy on top and values position over submission.

Yan’s equally unrelenting with his striking, hence his moniker “No Mercy.” He’s a piston-like pursuer who melts opponents with high-volume striking and peerless pressure. He has a 50% finish rate (seven knockouts and one submission) but is a slow poison-type fighter and has never been stopped.

Dvalishvili has a 71% decision rate, has never been knocked out and only been submitted once, so this one will go long. Sterling will give him a few tips on how to enter for takedown attempts that could see him land a few. 

However, Yan’s one of the best in keeping the fight standing, boasting 90% takedown defence. That strength and balance, along with his five-round and elite-level experience, give him the edge and should see him return to winning ways by decision. 

Prediction: Yan by decision.

Best Bet: Yan by decision at 2.10.

Alexander Volkov (2.30) v Alexandr Romanov (1.66) (Heavyweight)

The co-main event is also a clash between an elite striker and an elite grappler. The towering Volkov (35-10) is a rangy, technical striker with 23 knockouts to his name. At 6’7″, “Drago” has a five-inch height and reach advantage and uses his spear-like jab to keep opponents at bay.

A staple in the heavyweight elite, the eighth-ranked Russian’s experience will serve him well against the division’s rising prospect and he has momentum on his side having knocked out 11th-ranked Jairzinho Rozenstruik in his previous fight. 

Thirteenth-ranked Romanov (16-1) is a grizzly bear-like grappler who averages 5.18 takedowns per 15 minutes – a very high number for a heavyweight. All but one of his wins are by stoppage, nine by submission and five by knockout. 

“King Kong” put together a five-fight win streak to start his UFC career before suffering his first loss (by majority decision) against Marcin Tybura, who Volkov has beaten, in his last fight. 

That defeat showed the Moldovan still has some maturing to do to graduate to the top 10 level where Volkov resides. The former Bellator and M-1 champion has solid takedown defence and the veteran smarts to chip away and get his hand raised.

Prediction: Volkov by decision.

Best Bet: Volkov at 2.30. 

Alternative Bet: Volkov by decision at 5.00.

Nikita Krylov (1.60) v Ryan Spann (2.40) (Catchweight)

Something has to give when two of the best light heavyweights on the planet, each coming off big back-to-back victories, face off in the featured bout.

Sixth-ranked Krylov defeated former title challengers Alexander Gustafsson (by knockout) and Volkan Oezdemir (by decision) while eighth-ranked Spann saw off Ion Cutelaba (by submission) and Dominick Reyes (by knockout).

The pair were set to headline UFC Vegas 70 in a five-round affair two weeks ago but Krylov was forced to withdraw due to illness on the day of the fight. Now they’ll meet in a three-round catchweight contest. 

Krylov’s record of 29-9 with a dozen knockouts and 15 submissions highlights what a well-rounded assassin he is. “The Miner” is an intelligent and calculated competitor who has a significant advantage when it comes to facing elite competition. He’s mixed it up with the who’s who of the light heavyweight division for years, whereas Spann’s only now summiting the top tier. 

At 6’5″, “Superman” is one of the tallest and rangiest 205-pounders in the promotion and will have a four-inch reach advantage. Being a southpaw on top of having an 81.5-inch wingspan makes Spann, who’s 21-7, an even trickier challenge on the feet (six knockouts) while he’s an octopus on the ground (12 submission wins).  

Krylov deserves to be the favourite, but at the same time, Spann’s a value underdog because of his natural gifts, which extend to one-punch knockout power like he showed when he slept former title challenger Reyes. That first-round win last November was the biggest of his career and moved him to 3-2 as an underdog in the UFC.

With his cerebral approach, the Ukrainian will be wise to the early storm Spann will unleash (20 of his 28 fights have ended in the first round) and use his aggression against him to counterstrike and take the fight to the ground (Spann has a mediocre 50% takedown defence). 

For as good as Spann is on the map offensively, his long limbs are problematic defensively. A submission is in play, but I see Krylov using a complete game plan to wear Spann down and ultimately score a TKO. 

Prediction: Krylov by TKO.

Best Bet: Krylov by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 1.90.

Alternative Bet: Krylov by knockout at 3.50 or submission at 3.15.

Ricardo Ramos (1.27) v Austin Lingo (4.00) (Featherweight)

Ramos (16-4 with four knockouts and seven submissions) brings an exciting style to the Octagon. On top of a very well-rounded base, he has flair on the feet as he showed in his last fight when he knocked out Danny Chavez with a spinning back elbow last June.

Lingo (9-1 with three knockouts and two submissions) is solid rather than spectacular. He’s aggressive like Ramos with decent combinations but isn’t as dynamic with all three of his UFC fights having gone the distance. “Lights Out” is also short on experience compared to his opponent and hasn’t fought since 2021, so rust could be an issue.   

Ramos has the edge across the board and a clear blueprint on how to beat Lingo, who was taken down six times in his loss to Youssef Zalal. “Carcacinha” will most likely dip into his top-class grappling to defuse Lingo’s attacks and control him on the ground en route to a decision victory. 

Prediction: Ramos by decision. 

Best Bet: Ramos by decision at 2.65.

Alternative Bet: Fight to go the distance at 2.20.

Said Nurmagomedov (1.40) v Jonathan Martinez (3.05) (Bantamweight)

Both of these bantamweights are on a four-fight win streak and determined to keep that momentum going. 

Fourteenth-ranked Nurmagomedov (17-2 with four knockouts and five submissions), who submitted Saidyokub Kakhramonov in his most recent outing, is a fluid fighter who mixes striking and grappling seamlessly. 

Martinez (17-4) is more of a striker and a heavy-handed one with eight knockouts, the last being the most impressive as it came against respected veteran Cub Swanson, and just two submissions. 

He’ll struggle to deal with Nurmagomedov’s grappling whereas Nurmagomedov should be able to go tit for tat on the feet, so I see the Dagestani slaying “The Dragon” by decision.

Prediction: Nurmagomedov by decision. 

Best Bet: Nurmagomedov by decision at 2.30. 

Alternative Bet: Nurmagomedov by submission at 5.50.

Vitor Petrino (1.86) v Anton Turkalj (1.95) (Light Heavyweight)

Petrino brings an undefeated record of 7-0 with six knockouts to the Octagon for his UFC debut. 

Turkalj (8-1) was in the same position last September. He debuted at 8-0 with five knockouts and two submissions only to suffer his first defeat as Jailton Junior forced him to tap, so he’ll look to play spoiler this time around. 

In a fight that looks set to finish inside the distance, the more explosive Petrino should beat “The Pleasure Man” to the punch. 

Prediction: Petrino by knockout.

Best Bet: Petrino by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.75.

Alternative Bet: Petrino at 1.86.