UFC Fight Night: Vettori v Cannonier Predictions

Former title challengers Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier go toe-to-toe in a middleweight main event battle at UFC Vegas 75 on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

The co-headliner at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas will see lightweights Arman Tsarukyan and Joaquim Silva square off.

Staying at 155 pounds, Manuel Torres takes on Nikolas Motta while a second middleweight bout pits Armen Petrosyan against Christian Leroy Duncan. 

Plus, Pat Sabatini faces Lucas Almeida at featherweight and Raoni Barcelos battles Miles Johns at bantamweight.

MAIN CARD (from 4 AM Sunday SA time): 

Marvin Vettori (1.86) v Jared Cannonier (1.95) (Middleweight)

The third and fourth-ranked middleweight contenders must go through one another on their road to securing a second crack at the gold. Both men lost to 185-pound king Israel Adesanya on the scorecards, Vettori (19-5-1) in 2021 and Cannonier (16-6) in 2022. 

The winner of the bout between South Africa’s Dricus du Plessis and Robert Whittaker at UFC 290 next month will get the next shot at “The Last Stylebender” but the victor of this weekend’s main event will position himself as the next in line after that. 

Vettori has won two of his three fights since his loss to Adesanya and most recently beat Roman Dolidze by decision in March.  

While he has nine submissions to his name, “The Italian Dream” is a point-fighting expert, a tactician who seamlessly mixes striking with grappling. 

He does so tirelessly, pushing a pace few can keep up with over 25 minutes. He’s also double tough and has never been knocked out or submitted.

Cannonier (16-6), who rebounded from his defeat to Adesanya with a split-decision win over Sean Strickland in December, is a dangerous man with devastating power. 

Able to finish fights with his hands, elbows and even leg kicks, the legendary Anderson Silva, Derek Brunson and Jack Hermansson are among his 10 knockout victims. 

There are, thus, two likely outcomes – Vettori by decision or Cannonier by KO. 

Cannonier’s a physical specimen, an exceptional athlete, but even he can’t defeat Father Time. At 39, he’s a decade older than Vettori and while he was able to edge Strickland over five rounds, “The Italian Dream” is a different beast. 

Unlike Strickland, he won’t let Cannonier breathe. Absolutely relentless, he constantly pushes forward and saps opponents’ energy by forcing them to carry his weight. 

As defensively sound as they come, he’ll avoid serious damage and pour on the pressure to tire out and trump “The Killa Gorilla”.

Prediction: Vettori by decision.

Best Bet: Vettori at 1.86

Alternative Bet: Vettori by decision at 2.30.

Arman Tsarukyan (1.10) v Joaquim Silva (7.75) (Lightweight)

Tsarukyan (19-3) was originally scheduled to face Renato Moicano but with the Brazilian ruled out through injury, we’re left with what’s quite the mismatch, as the odds suggest.

Eighth in the rankings, the Armenian ace is levels above the unranked Silva (12-3) and should honestly have little trouble trouncing him. Better in all aspects, Tsarukyan has crisp, technical striking, good grappling and superior fight IQ. 

Silva’s a heavy-handed brawler but the odds of him catching Tsarukyan with a haymaker, which is his only chance of winning, is slim to none. 

Not much else needs to be said other than Tsarukyan, on top of his better skillset, will have a three-and-a-half-inch reach advantage. Bank on him to score an early knockout. 

Prediction: Tsarukyan by knockout. 

Best Bet: Tsarukyan by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.74.

Alternative Bet: Tsarukyan by first-round finish at 1.86. 

Armen Petrosyan (2.25) v Christian Leroy Duncan (1.68) (Middleweight)

Middleweight finishers in the early stages of their UFC careers collide in the featured bout. 

After splitting his first two fights in the promotion, Petrosyan (8-2) outpointed AJ Dobson last October and is looking to make it back-to-back wins. A solid striker who likes to rip the body, all six of his wins prior to joining the UFC came by knockout. 

Duncan made his UFC debut last time out but didn’t get to show much as his opponent, Dusko Todorovic, suffered a knee injury that handed “CLD” a bittersweet TKO victory.

A perfect 8-0 with seven finishes (six by knockout), the Brit is a prospect to keep an eye on and this will be a good test for him. 

Duncan has two clear edges – he’s the more fleet-footed striker and will have an unheard-of eight-and-a-half-inch reach advantage. 

It’s tough to say if he’ll be able to get the finish…I’d lean towards a decision win, but I’m happy taking the safety of the money line. 

Prediction: Duncan by decision.

Best Bet: Duncan at 1.68.

Alternative Bet: Duncan by decision at 4.00.

Pat Sabatini (1.51) v Lucas Almeida (2.65) (Featherweight)

A slick grappler, Sabatini (17-4) is skilled at securing takedowns from various angles and locking in a variety of submissions. He has 10 tap out victories in all, including one inside the Octagon, a heel hook finish of Jamall Emmers in 2021. 

Almeida (14-1) is a pure predator. Aggressive and well-rounded, the Brazilian boasts a 100% finish rate (nine knockouts and five submissions) including a knockout of Michael Trizano in his UFC debut last time out. 

Almeida’s a live dog with a significant advantage on the feet. Sabatini’s been TKO’d twice, including in his last fight against Damon Jackson, which suggests a finisher like Almeida will find the openings he needs to cash as a solid plus-money option.   

Prediction: Almeida by knockout. 

Best Bet: Almeida at 2.65. 

Alternative Bet: Almeida by KO/TKO/DQ at 4.50.

Manuel Torres (1.55) v Nikolas Motta (2.55) (Lightweight)

When you put two killers like these lightweights in the cage, odds are someone’s getting knocked out. Both men have a knack for producing first-round finishes, so don’t miss this one. 

With a dozen stoppages evenly spread between knockouts and five submissions, Torres (13-2) is a threat wherever the fight goes. “El Loco” loves a scrap and has strung together a four-fight win streak.  

Motta (13-4), meanwhile, is more of a pure striker. His best weapons are his kicks and devastating left hook, which have helped him rack up nine knockouts. 

Stylistically, this is a great match-up for Torres as his only two losses came against grapplers. With a much higher striking output and three-inch reach advantage, he’ll be the last man standing. 

Prediction: Torres by knockout.

Best Bet: Torres by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.65. 

Alternative Bet: Torres by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 1.86.

Raoni Barcelos (1.46) v Miles Johns (2.85) (Bantamweight)

Johns (13-2) will fancy his chances in this one as Barcelos (17-4) is 38 and has lost three of his last four. For his part, Johns has won three of his last four. So, why is the veteran the heavy favourite?

Simply put, Barcelos is a class above his 29-year-old opponent. He’s faced much sterner competition, has more firepower and savviness that only comes with experience. 

Former LFA champion Johns isn’t the scariest man around with just four knockouts (Barcelos has double that). “Chapo” is often caught between being too reserved and swinging wildly, something a wily athlete like Barcelos will exploit.

I expect Barcelos to be patient behind his jab and chip away to pick up a decision victory.

Prediction: Barcelos by decision.

Best Bet: Barcelos by decision at 2.50.

Alternative Bet: Fight to go the distance at 1.74.