UFC Fight Night: Tybura v Spivac 2 Predictions

Four years after their first fight, top 10 behemoths Marcin Tybura and Sergey Spivac run it back in a heavyweight headliner at UFC Vegas 95 on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Featherweights feature in the co-main event at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas with Damon Jackson colliding with Chepe Mariscal, while welterweights Danny Barlow and Nikolay Veretennikov face off in the featured bout.

The first half of the main card is all about bantamweights with Chris Gutierrez going toe to toe with Quang Le, Yana Santos squaring off with Chelsea Chandler and Toshiomi Kazama taking on Charalampos Grigoriou.

MAIN CARD (from 4 AM Sunday SA time):

Marcin Tybura (2.36) v Sergey Spivac (1.61) (Heavyweight)

They meet again.

After trading leather back in 2020, Tybura (25-8) and Spivac (16-4) are braced to battle it out in the sequel. It was Tybura who got his hand raised by decision in the first fight, now – with it being a main event – they have two more rounds to work with, if it goes that far.

“Tybur” is 7-2 since the win over Spivac and ranked eighth, while “The Polar Bear” is 6-2 after losing to Tybura and ranked ninth. Momentum is on Tybura’s side as he rebounded from a loss to Tom Aspinall, who went on to win the interim title, with a first-round submission win over Tai Tuivasa, while Spivac was stopped by former interim champion Cyril Gane in his last bout, which snapped his three-fight win streak.

Tybura is the superior striker. He’s more comfortable and technical on the feet and has nine knockouts to his name. The Polish powerhouse reminded everyone that he’s well-rounded in his last fight, though, with the quick victory over “Bam Bam” being his sixth by submission.

Spivac is an equal opportunity finisher with seven knockouts and just as many submissions to his credit, however, he has a very grappling-heavy approach. With Tybura up there in age at 38, the 29-year-old man mountain from Moldova will look to wear on him with heavy pressure.

The extra rounds favour the younger Spivac, who’s matured since the first fight and is closer to his prime than Tybura, whose best days are behind him. Therefore, I see Spivac getting his revenge.

Prediction: Spivac by decision.

Best Bet: Spivac at 1.61.

Alternative Bet: Spivac by decision at 4.50.

Damon Jackson (2.90) v Chepe Mariscal (1.43) (Featherweight)

A co-main event billing and an opportunity to move closer to a place in the top 15 will fuel the fire of these two featherweight veterans.

Jackson (23-6-1) is 6-3 in his second stint in the UFC and is coming off a hard-fought split decision win over Alexander Hernandez in April that arrested a two-fight skid.

“The Leech” is the bigger man, standing four inches taller than Mariscal, while he also has a two-inch reach advantage. A submission specialist, he usually uses these strengths to try to grab hold of his opponent’s limbs and boasts 15 wins by tapout. 

Mariscal (16-6) is a promising striker with plenty of momentum. “Machine Gun” has rattled off three wins to start his UFC career and extend his win streak to five. Heavy-handed for a 145-pounder, he has seven knockouts to his credit.

A strong and compact pursuer, I see him being more cautious than usual early on to not get caught in a submission. Having never been submitted, he knows how to stay out of trouble and is the superior striker, so he’s set to continue his winning ways.

Prediction: Mariscal by decision.

Best Bet: Mariscal by decision at 2.65.

Alternative Bet: Over 2.5 rounds at 1.76.

Danny Barlow (1.26) v Nikolay Veretennikov (4.00) (Welterweight)

The unbeaten Barlow welcomes Veretennikov (12-4) to the UFC in the featured bout.

Barlow is a perfect 8-0 with five knockouts, the last over Josh Quinlan in his promotional debut in February. The southpaw is slick, fast and powerful on the feet and is set to have a significant speed advantage.

Veretennikov (12-4) comes in for Uros Medic on very short notice and as such, finds himself at a disadvantage. As an experienced fighter who’d long waited for the call from the UFC, the opportunity was too good to pass up, though.

The Kazakhstan fighter isn’t afraid to throw down and has won his last four fights by knockout. Given he hasn’t had a full training camp, he might have to throw caution to the wind if he doesn’t want to get outworked by Barlow.

That, too, is problematic, though, as Barlow’s a sniper. Veretennikov is usually durable, but these are unusual circumstances, which should see Barlow bank a stoppage win.  

Prediction: Barlow by knockout.

Best Bet: Barlow by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.10.

Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 1.74.

Chris Gutierrez v Quang Le (Bantamweight)

Gutierrez (20-5-2) is another fighter who’s had a very late change of opponent. Originally set to face Javid Basharat, “El Guapo” will instead hook ‘em up against an undefeated newcomer.

A seasoned switch hitter, Gutierrez was on an eight-fight unbeaten streak that included a knockout win over former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar and was on the cusp of a top 10 ranking not that long ago. However, he’s lost two of his last three and is looking to bounce back from a main event loss to Song Yadong in December.

Le makes his UFC debut with a record of 8-0 with two knockouts and three submissions. All but one of his fights are under the LFA banner, giving him a decent foundation, but shooting straight up to fighting a recent Fight Night main eventer is a massive step up for “Bang.”

He might have future success inside the Octagon, but Le’s likely to fall short first up. 

Prediction: Gutierrez by decision.

Best Bet: Gutierrez by decision

Yana Santos (1.67) v Chelsea Chandler (2.24) (Bantamweight)

Top 15 bantamweights battle it out in the main card’s second showdown.

Sitting at No. 12, Santos (14-8) has a significant advantage when it comes to experience. Not only does she have almost three times the number of fights than her opponent, but she’s also shared the Octagon with some of the biggest names in women’s mixed martial arts.

Those include Aspen Ladd, former champion Holly Holm as well as Ketlen Vieira, the latter of whom she defeated. That 2021 win was her last, though, with “Foxy” entering this weekend’s bout on a three-fight losing streak.

Proudly representing the Nick Diaz Academy, Chandler (6-2) is 2-1 in the UFC and is coming off a decision win over Josiane Nunes in March. After missing weight for that fight, her first battle this week will be on the scale.

Ranked 14th, she’s primarily a grappler and a strong, solid one at that. She likes to impose her will on an opponent and force them to fight her fight. With good takedowns and heavy top control, I fancy her as the underdog against an ageing Santos who’s past her prime.

Prediction: Chandler by decision.

Best Bet: Chandler at 2.24.

Alternative Bet: Chandler by decision at 3.50.

Toshiomi Kazama (3.10) v Charalampos Grigoriou (1.38) (Bantamweight)

Fresh faces out to pick up their first UFC wins promise to get the main card off to an exciting start.

Road to UFC finalist Kazama (10-4) has lost both of his fights in the promotion by knockout, whereas Grigoriou (8-4) lost his Octagon debut by decision.

Kazama is a slick grappler who’s claimed 50% of his wins by submission. The issue for the Japanese fighter is his striking isn’t crisp or layered enough for him to have success at the highest level if his grappling is thwarted.

Grigoriou, on the other hand, is a good, speedy and sophisticated striker who’s claimed all but two of his wins by knockout. The man from Cyprus attacks from various angles and has good combinations and with Kazama having plenty of holes in his defence, I expect “The Ferocious” to find the target and finish him off.

Prediction: Grigoriou by knockout.

Best Bet: Grigoriou by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.90.

Alternative Bet: Under 1.5 rounds at 2.10.