UFC Fight Night: Thompson v Holland Predictions 

Elite striking entertainment is guaranteed when welterweight fan favourites Stephen Thompson and Kevin Holland headline one of the best UFC Fight Night cards of the year at the Amway Center in Orlando on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

Former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos moves back up to 170 pounds for a co-main event battle against Bryan Barberena, top-five heavyweight knockout artists Sergei Pavlovich and Tai Tuivasa trade leather and Matheus Nicolau meets Matt Schnell in a clash of top 10 flyweights.

There are also two high-level middleweight fights to look forward to with Jack Hermansson taking on Roman Dolidze and Eryk Anders squaring off with Kyle Daukaus.

MAIN CARD (from 5 AM Sunday SA time):

Stephen Thompson (2.40) v Kevin Holland (1.60) (Welterweight)

Two high-level strikers with different styles will make for a compelling, entertaining and closely-contested five-round main event. 

In Thompson (16-6-1) you have a multi-time kickboxing world champion who was undefeated in the sport. A karate savant at the same time, he’s as technical and sophisticated a striker to ever grace the Octagon. 

“Wonderboy” boasts an extraordinarily diverse arsenal of strikes and fights out of a bouncing, sideways stance. That unique combination, along with him being a southpaw, has made him the trickiest striking puzzle to solve in the division for the past decade. 

He’s scored highlight-reel knockouts (seven in all), defeated some of the best and biggest names in the sport including former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker, ex-welterweight titleholder Johny Hendricks, Rory McDonald and Jorge Masvidal and fought for the title twice, taking Tyron Woodley to a draw and dropping the rematch by decision. 

His one weakness, which he shares with Holland (23-8), is in the grappling department. His last two opponents, top contenders Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad, took and held him down to win on the scorecards. 

Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori did the same to Holland and most recently, Khamzat Chimaev manhandled and tapped out “Trailblazer” in September to send him into a very short-lived retirement. Both will be loving that they don’t have to worry about takedowns in this one.  

In Holland, you have a dynamic, freestyle striker. He trades technique for explosiveness and packs more power, which has earned him 13 knockouts. He has solid jiu-jitsu as well with his six submission wins taking his finishing rate to 83% compared to Thompson’s 50%.  

Before his loss to Chimaev, Holland was 2-0 in his second stint at welterweight and while he’s currently not ranked, the former top-10 middleweight is a tough out and can leap into the top 10 with a win over sixth-ranked Thompson. 

Inactivity and age are behind Thompson’s underdog status. He hasn’t fought since last December and is 39, nine years older than Holland, who’ll also have a six-inch reach advantage. 

Even though Thompson is a world-class counter striker, Holland’s aggressive nature will see him take the fight to him more than most of Thompson’s previous opponents, which could lead to a knockout either way. 

If Holland is to win, it’ll be by stoppage, but the only man to ever knockout Thompson, ex-lightweight champion Anthony Pettis, did so with a superman punch off the cage that had never been seen before in 2019.

The point-fighting wizard that is Thompson is a value dog and I see him out-landing Holland to take it on the judges’ scorecards.

Prediction: Thompson via decision.

Best Bet: Thompson at 2.40.

Alternative Bet: Thompson by decision at 5.00.

Bryan Barberena (5.20) v Rafael dos Anjos (1.18) (Welterweight)

A tough loss to young lion Rafael Fiziev last time out sees Dos Anjos (31-14) move up from lightweight to welterweight for the second time. That fifth-round TKO defeat in July was the first time he was stopped in five years and just the fourth time in his decorated 18-year career.

The former 155-pound king had a solid first run at 170 pounds from 2017 to 2020. Results show he went 4-4 but three of those losses were to Colby Covington, in an interim title bout, ex-champion Kamaru Usman and reigning titleholder Leon Edwards, while three of those wins came over Neil Magny, former champion Robbie Lawler and Kevin Lee.  

Having hung with the very best in the division, well-rounded Dos Anjos should get past Barberena (18-8), who’s on a three-fight win streak but not on the level of opponents “RDA” has beaten. A tough brawler, Barberena loves to force foes into a slugfest where his heavy hands and strong chin have earned him 11 knockouts. 

Dos Anjos, on the other hand, is a quintessential mixed martial artist. He’s always calm and calculated and seamlessly mixes striking and grappling to control the fight, which will see him defuse and defeat Barberena by decision.  

Prediction: Dos Anjos via decision.

Best Bet: Dos Anjos by decision at 1.74.

Matheus Nicolau (1.26) v Matt Schnell (4.10) (Flyweight)

Flyweights bring non-stop action and these title-hungry contenders are two of the best at 125 pounds. Nicolau (18-2-1) is ranked one place above Schnell (16-7) in sixth but the odds better reflect the gap between the two. 

Nicolau has been firing on all cylinders and has won five on the trot, the last four by decision. At 29 and in his second stint in the UFC, he now knows exactly who and what he is as a fighter and how to put it all together. 

Schnell (16-7) is still developing. He’s a black belt in karate but a grappler in the MMA world with nine submission victories. His recent run of 1-1-1 and overall record of 6-5 in the UFC show he still has a lot of holes in his game, which doesn’t bode well against his complete opponent.

He showed how tough and dangerous he is in his thrilling comeback win over Sumudaerji in July, so Nicolau will be on his game throughout, shut down Schnell’s grappling and get the win on the scorecards…again.

Prediction: Nicolau via decision.

Best Bet: Nicolau by decision at 2.40.

Alternative Bet: Fight to go the distance at 1.95.

Tai Tuivasa (2.85) v Sergei Pavlovich (1.46) (Heavyweight)

It’ll be knockout o’clock when these two titans in the heavyweight top-five throwdown. 

Fourth-ranked Tuivasa (15-4) had a five-fight knockout streak snapped by Cyril Gane in September while fifth-ranked Pavlovich (16-1) scored his fourth consecutive and the biggest KO win of his career when he stopped the UFC’s all-time knockout king Derrick Lewis in July.

Fan favourite “Bam Bam” is a slugger whereas Pavlovich is the more technical and crisper striker. The Russian is also the better grappler, but this will be a stand-up battle. Don’t blink as 11 of Tuivasa’s 13 and all 13 of Pavlovich’s knockouts came in the first round. 

Tuivasa showed in his wild near-upset of former interim champion Gane, by far the most sophisticated striker at 265 pounds, that he can clip anyone and is always a live dog. 

With just a single loss to his name, Pavlovich looks like a possible future champion, whose straighter punches and massive nine-inch reach advantage will see him beat the Australian to the KO punch.

Prediction: Pavlovich via knockout. 

Best Bet: Pavlovich by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.74.

Alternative Bet: Pavlovich by first-round KO/TKO/DQ at 1.95.

Jack Hermansson (1.52) v Roman Dolidze (2.60) (Middleweight)

Eighth-ranked Hermansson (23-7) was originally set to face fifth-ranked Derek Brunson but the latter was forced out through injury. Enter Dolidze, who on less than two weeks’ notice, has an opportunity to break into the top 10.

The 34-year-old is Hermansson’s second successive short-notice opponent. “The Joker” outpointed Chris Curtis in July and is set to do the same to Dolidze. He has 17 stoppage wins (11 knockouts and six submissions) but he’s become a low-risk strategist and will be particularly cautious against the surging Dolidze. 

The Georgian has scored back-to-back first-round knockouts and is 11-1, so he offers value as an underdog. At the same time, Hermansson is a big step up in competition and savvy enough to survive the early storm and win a decision. 

Prediction: Hermansson via decision.

Best Bet: Hermansson by decision at 2.20.

Alternative Bet: Fight to go the distance at 1.80.

Eryk Anders (2.85) v Kyle Daukaus (1.46) (Middleweight)

An intriguing striker versus grappler battle will get the main card underway with both men looking to get back in the win column.

Anders (14-7), who’s lost his last two, is a robust and explosive stand-up fighter with eight knockouts to his name whereas Daukaus (11-3-1NC) is a lanky and lean grappling specialist who’s secured all but two of his wins by submission. 

“Ya Boi” has brutal leg kicks but those are risky in this fight as they’ll present Daukaus with opportunities to score a takedown. It remains to be seen if Daukaus will be tentative after suffering his first knockout loss last time out and if he is, Anders has the power to consign him to the same fate. 

That said, Daukaus’ fight IQ is levels above Anders’, who also has suspect cardio. Daukaus will work his way inside, wear on and drain Anders’ energy to the point where he sinks in a submission for the win. 

Prediction: Daukaus via submission.

Best Bet: Daukaus by submission at 3.75.

Alternative Bet: Fight to finish inside the distance at 2.10.

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.