UFC Fight Night: Strickland v Imavov Predictions

Sean Strickland is planning a smash and grab as he swoops in on short notice to take on Nassourdine Imavov in the main event of the first UFC card of 2023 in Las Vegas on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

The UFC had to roll with the punches to start the year after losing one half of the original headliner, Kelvin Gastelum, due to injury on Tuesday.  

The always-game Strickland seized the opening to set up a showdown of elite middleweights with a twist, that being that while the new main event will still be a five-round fight, it’ll be contested at light heavyweight given Strickland doesn’t have adequate time to cut weight. 

Set to throw down in the co-headliner of UFC Vegas 67 at the Apex are featherweight finishers Dan Ige and Damon Jackson with 185-pounders Punahele Soriano and Roman Kopylov clashing in the featured bout. 

The main card will get underway with two bantamweight battles with top-five contenders Ketlen Vieira and Raquel Pennington facing off and the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov battling Raoni Barcelos.

MAIN CARD (from 2 AM Sunday SA time):

Sean Strickland (1.90) v Nassourdine Imavov (1.90) (Light Heavyweight

A scrapper through and through, it’s no surprise Strickland (25-5) was the first to call shotgun following Gastelum’s withdrawal. He poses a different and significantly more difficult challenge to Imavov (12-3) than the former Ultimate Fighter winner would’ve and comes into this one with a chip on his shoulder. 

After winning six in a row, he was one victory away from a title fight but was knocked out in that crunch clash last July by Alex Pereira, who went on to dethrone Israel Adesanya. Strickland, meanwhile, lost a split decision to Jared Cannonier (who’d come off a title fight loss to Adesanya) in the headliner of the last event of 2022. Feeling robbed, seventh-ranked “Tarzan” swings into this one seeking to get back on track. 

Imavov (12-3) is an up-and-comer on a three-fight win streak and a fresh figure in the middleweight top 15. For the 12th-ranked rising star, it’s an opportunity to prove he can step up to the next level and beat one of the best 185-pounders around, albeit at 205. 

Both are well-rounded. They have four submission wins each but are mainly strikers with the American veteran having double the number of knockouts as Imavov with 10. Strickland’s last three wins all came by decision, though, the last two in five-round main events against Uriah Hall and Jack Hermansson while “Russian Sniper” started his three-fight hot streak with back-to-back knockouts of Ian Heinisch and Edmen Shahbazyan.

In what’s set to be a stand-up fight, Imavov won’t have the physical advantages he would’ve had over Gastelum, namely speed, agility and a four-and-a-half-inch reach advantage. He now has a one-inch disadvantage in reach against a man who’s just as athletic and more concerning for him, an opponent who’s as crafty as they come with tons of experience in five-round main events.

It’s Imavov’s first headliner and it remains to be seen how he handles the pressure and pacing, especially after being thrown the late curveball. As erratic as Strickland can be, he’s generally in shape and shouldn’t slow down so drastically in the latter rounds that it costs him. 

Instead, his savviness and class should see him win on the scorecards. 

Prediction: Strickland via decision.

Best Bet: Strickland at 1.90. 

Alternative Bet: Strickland by decision.

Dan Ige (1.80) v Damon Jackson (2.05) (Featherweight)

The featherweight co-feature is a fascinating clash of styles. Ige (15-6) is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt but has primarily been a brawler in recent years. 

His nickname “50K” refers to the sum fighters earn with performance bonuses, but the last of his four knockouts came in 2021. He’s lost four of his last five, all against top contenders it must be said, and had crept up on a title shot before his slump. 

A four-fight win streak has earned Jackson (22-4-1) this opportunity to face elite competition for the first time. “Action” lives up to his name with all but three of his wins coming by stoppage, including 15 submissions. 

However, Ige has the grappling skills to negate his strengths and the superior striking to get back in the win column, most likely by decision. 

Prediction: Ige via decision.

Best Bet: Ige at 1.80.

Alternative Bet: Ige by decision.

Punahele Soriano (1.60) v Roman Kopylov (2.40) (Middleweight)

Expect fireworks from these fighters, who share a 9-2 record and a flair for finishes. Both have eight stoppages, the more diverse Soriano having six knockouts and two submissions while Kopylov’s a striking specialist. 

While it’s unlikely “Puna” will take the fight to the ground, he does have that option, which will cast a bit of doubt in his Russian opponent’s mind. He’s more explosive and efficient on the feet as well, so he’ll punch his ticket to the pay window in style. 

Prediction: Soriano via knockout. 

Best Bet: Soriano by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.75.

Alternative Bet: Soriano at 1.60. 

Ketlen Vieira (1.83) v Raquel Pennington (2.00) (Bantamweight)

This is a massive fight to start the year in the women’s bantamweight division with number two-ranked Vieira (13-2) facing fight-ranked Pennington (14-8). It pits the intimidating power and size of the former against the skill and tactical prowess of the latter. 

Vieira established herself as a queen slayer last year with back-to-back decision wins over ex-champions Miesha Tate and Holly Holm whereas “Rocky” has won four on the trot to move closer to a second shot at the belt. The marginal odds flipped at the start of fight week with Vieira now the slight favourite.

“Fenomeno” is a mountain to move, so expect her to stuff takedowns and make it a striking duel. She’s not the most technical, but if she lands flush, she could finish her foe. 

Pennington’s the better striker with a higher fight IQ and that it’s a three-round fight favours her as it allows her to sprint from start to finish. The pace, pressure and point-fighting proficiency she’s set to bring has me leaning towards her to eke out the decision.

Prediction: Pennington via decision.

Best Bet: Pennington at 2.00.

Alternative Bet: Pennington via decision.

Umar Nurmagomedov (1.20) v Raoni Barcelos (4.90) (Bantamweight)

With a flawless 15-0 record, Nurmagomedov is the overwhelming favourite in the main card opener. That’s not a slight on veteran Barcelos, who has an excellent 17-3 record, but rather highlights the immense talent and promise of the Dagestani blue-chipper. 

With great kicks and a dominant grappling game reminiscent of that of his cousin and former lightweight ruler Khabib Nurmagomedov, he controls fights and has won essentially half of them (7) by submission, which will entice many to go for the very juicy 4.50 submission prop. 

With his heavy hands and veteran know-how, Barcelos does present a degree of danger for Nurmagomedov to respect and remain wary of and has only been submitted once, back in 2014, so I believe it’ll go the distance. 

Prediction: Nurmagomedov via decision.

Best Bet: Nurmagomedov by decision at 1.50.

Alternative Bet: Nurmagomedov by submission at 4.50