UFC Fight Night: Smith v Spann Predictions

Former light heavyweight title challenger Anthony Smith squares off against rising star Ryan Spann in the main event of UFC Vegas 37 on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

The co-featured bout at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas is another clash at 205 pounds with Ion Cuteleba colliding with Devin Clark, while Ariane Lipski welcomes unbeaten German sensation, Mandy Bohm, to the UFC in a flyweight affair.

Fellow debutants Nikolas Motta and Cameron VanCamp will look to make a splash when they go head-to-head in one of two lightweight battles, the other seeing feared wrestler Arman Tsarukyan take on Christos Giagos. 

But first, Joaquin Buckley – who produced the knockout of the year in 2020 – throws down with Antonio Arroyo in a middleweight match-up that’s sure to thrill.

MAIN CARD (from 1 AM Sunday SA time):

Anthony Smith (1.58) v Ryan Spann (2.50) (Light Heavyweight)

The marquee match of the evening is a classic clash between a seasoned veteran and an up-and-coming contender. Despite being just 33, Smith is as experienced as they come. “Lionheart” has scrapped in 51 professional fights, winning 35 of them, all but two via stoppage (19 knockouts and 13 submissions).

Like all who’ve tried, he failed to dethrone the great Jon Jones when he got his shot at the belt in 2019 but bounced back with a submission win over fellow top contender Alexander Gustafsson later in the year. A beat down at the hands of Glover Teixeira, who’ll fight for the title next month, and a decision loss to Aleksandar Rakic followed, but he’s firmly back on track thanks to finishes of Devin Clark (submission) and Jim Crute (TKO). 

Ranked sixth, this is quite the gamble by Smith, one in which he has little to gain and a lot to lose against a big and dangerous fighter a full five places below him in the rankings. It speaks to the confidence Smith has in his abilities, but he’ll be rueing the decision if he gets caught by Spann (19-6).

At 6’5″, “Superman” is one of the tallest and rangiest 205 pounders in the promotion and will have a three-inch reach advantage over Smith. The southpaw’s coming off a knockout win over Misha Cirkunov, however, that was just his fifth stoppage by strikes. He’s primarily a grappler, with 11 of his 19 wins coming by submission.  

The 30-year-old is 5-1 in the UFC and it’s the one that’s the more important number. That’s because that loss came against Jonny Walker, the toughest competition he’s faced and a man who’s levels below Smith at this stage of their respective careers. 

Striking is Spann’s kryptonite, with that defeat being his third by knockout. Smith isn’t flashy but he’s wily; he’s picked up plenty of tricks from all his battles and will have a significant advantage on the feet. Spann’s best hope is on the ground, but even there he’s not safe, as Smith is a crafty Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt. 

Factor in as well that it’s a serious step-up and maiden main event for Spann and I see Smith either knocking him out or hurting him on the feet before choking him out.

Prediction: Smith via stoppage.

Best Bet: Smith by KO/TKO/DQ/submission at 2.00.

Alternative Bets: Smith by knockout at 3.40 or submission at 3.75.

Ion Cuteleba (1.68) v Devin Clark (2.25) (Light Heavyweight)

Staying in the 205-pound division, the co-headliner is a battle of fire and ice. In one corner, you have the fury of Cuteleba (15-6-1), a maniac from Moldova who likes nothing more than to starch his opponents early and violently. All but one of his wins are by stoppage, 13 of which came in the first round and 12 by knockout.

In the other corner, you have calculated Clark (12-5) – a grappler whose six wins inside the Octagon all came by decision. Both men are seeking to get back on track; Cuteleba has only won one of his last four and is coming off a split draw with Dustin Jacoby, while Clark was submitted by headliner Smith in his last bout. 

“Brown Bear” battles when he’s bum-rushed and unable to time his takedowns, so my money’s on a finish for Cuteleba. 

Prediction: Cuteleba by stoppage.

Best Bet: Cuteleba at 1.68. 

Alternative Bet: Cuteleba by KO/TKO/DQ/submission at 1.86.

Nikolas Motta (1.32) v Cameron VanCamp (2.45) (Lightweight)

Debutants collide in what’s set to be an exciting scrap. Motta (12-3) was meant to take on Jim Miller, but the veteran was forced to withdraw after testing positive for Covid over the weekend. VanCamp answered the call on Monday, setting up a showdown of hungry lightweight finishers.

A kill-or-be-killed competitor, Motta is 12-3 with eight knockouts. Sharing a nickname with Mike Tyson, “Iron” has fast and heavy hands and has the added advantage of having had a full camp. VanCamp, in contrast, is a submission specialist, with 12 of his 15 wins coming by tap out, including his last three. 

Defensively, “The Invader” leaves windows of opportunities for opponents on the feet and the sharper Motta should seize on this to signal his arrival in style. 

Prediction: Motta via knockout.

Best Bet: Motta by knockout at 2.30.

Alternative Bet: Motta by KO/TKO/DQ/submission at 2.20.

Ariane Lipski (1.83) v Mandy Bohm (2.00) (Flyweight)

Records can sometimes be deceiving and I believe this is one of those instances. Lipski is 13-7 and coming off back-to-back losses, whereas Bohm is a perfect 7-0 with one no-contest. “Monster” finished four of her foes, two by knockout and two by submission, but she’s untested as far as top talent is concerned, with her opponents owning an average combined record of 12-8-1. 

She’s making her UFC debut against a legitimate threat in Lipski. “The Queen of Violence” was Bohm a few years ago in that she entered the UFC on a nine-fight win streak and the ups and downs she’s experienced since have only made her wiser. Aggressive and a class above Bohm’s previous opponents, Lipski looks set to spoil the German’s debut by outpointing her on the feet. 

Prediction: Lipski via decision. 

Best Bet: Lipski at 1.83.

Alternative Bet: Lipski by decision at 2.80.

Arman Tsarukyan (1.12) v Christos Giagos (5.50) (Lightweight)

The biggest underdog of the card, Giagos (19-8) is entering the lion’s den against an animalistic wrestler the UFC has struggled to find opponents for. That Tsarukyan’s ranked 14th is what enticed “The Spartan” to step up, knowing an upset would catapult him into the top 15. He’s a good grappler as well and has punching power if not great technique on the feet, which has earned him four submission wins and seven knockouts. 

Tsarukyan has an excellent record of 16-2 with 10 finishes (five KOs and five submissions). He’s better than Giagos in every aspect and should steamroll him. Being such a heavy favourite, the play to make is a prop bet on a Tsarukyan stoppage, with the probability of it paying off being high. 

Prediction: Tsarukyan via stoppage. 

Best Bet: Tsarukyan by KO/TKO/DQ/submission at 2.50.

Alternative Bet: Tsarukyan by submission at 5.00 or by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.50.

Joaquin Buckley (1.50) v Antonio Arroyo (2.70) (Middleweight)

Expect fireworks in the main card opener. Neither man is fond of grappling and is lethal on the feet, so expect a fire-fight that probably won’t need the judges. Buckley (12-4) produced one of the most sensational knockouts of all time when he stiffened Impa Kasanganay with a spinning back kick last November but has split his two fights since, winning and then losing by KO.

With all but one of his wins coming by stoppage, Arroyo (9-4) is a dangerous man but he’s yet to rise to UFC level. He’s 0-2 in the promotion and his fortunes aren’t likely to change against the more explosive “New Mansa.” 

Prediction: Buckley via knockout. 

Best Bet: Buckley by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.90.

Alternative Bet: Buckley at 1.50.

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.