UFC Fight Night: Santos v Walker Predictions

Heavy-handed top-10 light heavyweights headline UFC Vegas 38 on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time) as Thiago Santos battles fellow Brazilian Johnny Walker, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

The co-main event at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas is an exciting middleweight match-up between Kevin Holland and Kyle Daukaus, while fireworks are guaranteed when welterweight wild men Alex Oliveira and Niko Price meet in the middle of the Octagon. 

Misha Cirkunov starts a new chapter in his career at middleweight, where he’ll collide with Krzysztof Jotko, Aspen Ladd makes her long-awaited return against fellow top-10 bantamweight contender Macy Chiasson, plus, Alexander Hernandez takes on promotional newcomer Mike Breeden at lightweight.

This battle between Brazilian LHWs promises to bring the fireworks ??

pic.twitter.com/gLx2Il6obZ

— UFC (@ufc) September 27, 2021

MAIN CARD (from 1 AM Sunday SA time):

Thiago Santos (1.62) v Johnny Walker (2.40) (Light Heavyweight):

The weekend’s headliner is a pivotal clash in the light heavyweight division between an ageing and a young lion, both of whom are ferocious predators. At 37, it’s a must-win fight for Santos (21-9) if he’s to keep his goal of earning another title shot alive. 

That the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt has hardly had to use his grappling (holding just one submission win) speaks to his crushing punching power. The sledgehammer tattooed on his chest is a visual illustration of his devastating hands, weapons of destruction that have seen him earn 15 of his wins by knockout.

The last of his knockouts came in February 2019 against Jan Blachowicz, who now has the title around his waist. After that victory, “Marreta” gave consensus GOAT Jon Jones the toughest challenge of his career, coming within a hairsbreadth of dethroning him as champion by ending on the wrong side of a razor-thin split decision. 

Santos had to undergo double knee surgery after the championship bout, which sidelined him for over a year, and he’s lost both of his bouts since returning, being submitted by current number one contender Glover Teixeira before being outpointed by third-ranked Aleksandar Rakić in a lacklustre fight in March.

He hasn’t looked as sharp as he was prior to his surgeries and it’s the question of whether or not he’s “damaged goods” that this fight boils down to. Walker (17-5) was seen as the future of the division when he blasted through Khalil Rountree, Justin Ledet and Misha Cirkunov before he was derailed by Corey Anderson in November 2019.

That stoppage loss to the first elite 205-pounder he faced showed he still required significant growth and his decision loss to Nikita Krylov that followed suggested he may have been all hype. While that’s not the case, as he proved when he knocked out Ryan Spann last September, the jury is still out on if he’s a top-five calibre talent. Being ranked 10th is no small feat, but there are levels to MMA and this fight will show where the 29-year-old stands at this stage of his career. 

Walker is a savage, with all but one of his wins coming by stoppage (14 KOs and two submissions). At 6’6″, he’s one of the biggest light heavyweights around and has a freakish speed for his size. He’s four inches taller than Santos and will have a six-inch reach advantage, which will be big in a fight that’s expected to primarily play out on the feet. 

Santos’ experience as a main eventer and class as a proven title contender will more than make up for that size disadvantage. He’s a more mature fighter than Walker in terms of staying calm and patient and sticking to a game plan, whereas his younger opponent is still reckless at times, which the best of the best like Santos capitalise on. 

Santos still has gas in the tank and Walker still has a ways to go to reach the level his adversary’s at, so I’m expecting “Marreta” to catch him with a KO blow.

Prediction: Santos via knockout. 

Best Bet: Santos by 1.62.

Alternative Bet: Santos by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.83.

Kevin Holland (1.64) v Kyle Daukaus (2.35) (Middleweight)

A compelling clash of styles that’s particularly important for Holland (21-7) to win. A superb striker (12 KOs), he lived up to his “Trailblazer” moniker when he scorched his way to five wins last year including a spectacular finish of the legendary Ronaldo Souza. 

However, he’s experienced a reversal of fortunes this year, losing back-to-back bouts against top contenders Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori, both of whom neutralised him with smothering wrestling to earn dominant decisions. He’s slipped from 10th to 14th and having to fight an unranked opponent in Daukaus (10-2), who now has a clear blueprint on how to beat Holland.

He also has the style to possibly pull it off; he relies on his grappling to ground opponents and finish them off with jiu-jitsu. Eight of his 10 wins are by submission, which is how Holland’s been finished twice. The crux of this clash is that Daukaus, as a developing prospect coming off a loss to Phil Hawes, isn’t the calibre of wrestler than Holland’s last two opponents. 

He’ll struggle to get and keep him down, and with Holland being the superior striker with the added bonus of having a five-inch reach advantage, he’s set to get back on track, most likely by decision, although, he has all the components to become the first to knockout the durable Daukaus. 

Prediction: Holland via decision. 

Best Bet: Holland at 1.64.

Alternative Bets: Holland by decision at 3.00.

Alex Oliveira (2.45) v Niko Price (1.60) (Welterweight)

Make sure not to miss this one! This welterweight clash has Fight of the Night written all over it as fan favourite finishers go to war. Oliveira (22-10-1-2NC) has succumbed to submissions in his last two tilts and while Price (14-6-2NC) has a few tap out wins, this is bound to be a brutal stand-up battle. 

“Cowboy” is still as willing as ever to trade leather and powerful to add to his dozen knockouts, but at 33, the veteran is notably slower than he was in his heyday, which is detrimental against a young and fast killer like Price. His last bouts saw “The Hybrid” fight to a draw against the iconic Donald Cerrone and drop a close decision to Michel Pereira in a fight that lived up to the craziness expected. 

All but one of Price’s wins are by stoppage (10 by KO), but Oliveira is as tough as they come. He’s only been knocked out once in his decade-long career, so Price will have to be content with a decision victory. 

Prediction: Price via decision. 

Best Bet: Price at 1.60.

Alternative Bet: Price by decision at 4.50.

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Misha Cirkunov (2.30) v Krzysztof Jotko (1.66) (Middleweight)

Kudos to Jotko (22-5) for stepping up to welcome the massive Cirkunov (15-6) to the middleweight division. After a rough ride at light heavyweight that saw him go 2-4, Cirkunov is looking to reinvent himself in a new weight class. Half the battle will be to successfully make the drop from 205 to 185 pounds (93 to 84kg), which can be the only reason why he’s the underdog, but if he does, he’s primed to purge.

With 15 decisions, Jotko doesn’t have the power in his hands to deter Cirkunov from rushing in and mauling him, which seems inevitable. An aggressive submission specialist, the Canadian should have no problem overpowering his Polish foe and forcing him to tap.

Prediction: Cirkunov via submission. 

Best Bet: Cirkunov by 2.30.

Alternative Bet: Cirkunov by submission at 3.75.

Aspen Ladd (1.39) v Macy Chiasson (3.05) (Bantamweight)

Ladd (9-1) returns after nearly two years away looking to remind the world that she’s the juggernaut of the bantamweight division. A great grappler is driven by animalistic aggression and impressive punching power, she takes the fight to her foes and has seven stoppage wins (six knockouts and one submission).

That record and wreckage see her remain third in the rankings despite being out of action since December 2019 with a major knee injury. Rust could be an issue, as well as a serious size discrepancy that sees her give up five inches in height and six inches in reach. 

Chiasson (8-1) won two on the trot (both by decision) in the time Ladd was on the sidelines to position herself at No.11 in the rankings. With four finishes (evenly split between KOs and submissions), the Ultimate Fighter season 28 winner is well-rounded, however, she’ll want to keep things on the feet in this one as her opponent has punishing ground-and-pound. 

Ladd has looked unbeatable aside from the flash knockout she suffered at the hands of former champion Germaine de Randamie and is a significant step up in competition for Chiasson. The latter has never been finished, so I’m tipping Ladd to mark her return with a ground-based decision victory.

Prediction: Ladd via decision.

Best Bet: As a big favourite, the value in Ladd lies in a prop bet. Ladd by decision at 2.20.

Alternative Bet: Fight to go the distance at 1.62. 

Alexander Hernandez (1.18) v Mike Breeden (4.00) (Lightweight)

Hernandez (12-4) looks set to start the main card with a bang despite trading wins and losses in his last six fights. That’s because Breeden (10-3) is not only making his UFC debut but he’s also a short-notice replacement for Leonardo Santos, whom Hernandez was favoured to beat as well.

“The Great” won’t fall into the trap of underestimating the newcomer as he made his name by knocking out Beneil Dariush, now ranked third in the division, as a short-notice debutant three years ago. Breeden is a dangerous gamer with eight knockouts, but his willingness to engage will most likely see him getting stopped by his next-level opponent.

Prediction: Hernandez to claim his sixth knockout win. 

Best Bet: Hernandez by knockout at 2.10. 

Alternative Bet: Hernandez by first-round stoppage at 3.25.