UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen v Nurmagomedov Predictions

The boogeyman of the bantamweight division Umar Nurmagomedov gets his long-awaited shot at a big name when he squares off against Cory Sandhagen in the main event of UFC Abu Dhabi at the Etihad Arena on Saturday night, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Nick Diaz was originally scheduled to make his return against Vicente Luque in the co-headliner, however, the legendary scrapper was forced out of the fight due to travel issues.

The new co-main event will see the undefeated Shara Magomedov meet Michal Oleksiejczuk at middleweight, while recent bantamweight title challenger Marlon Vera faces former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo in the featured bout.

Making up the first half of the main card is a welterweight contest between former 155-pound interim champion Tony Ferguson and Michael Chiesa, a strawweight scrap between top 10 contenders Mackenzie Dern and Loopy Godinez and a lightweight affair between Joel Alvarez and Elves Brener.

MAIN CARD (from 9 PM Saturday SA time):

Cory Sandhagen (3.60) v Umar Nurmagomedov (1.30) (Bantamweight)

In combat sports, very few fighters are ones to avoid, ones who find it tough to get quality opponents. Undefeated rising star Nurmagomedov falls into that category.

Following in the footsteps of his Hall of Fame cousin Khabib, who retired as lightweight champion with a perfect record of 29-0, Nurmagomedov boasts a flawless record of 17-0, including five wins in the UFC to move up to 10th in the rankings.

A powerful mauler with ever-improving striking, no one inside the top 10 has been willing to face the up-and-coming Dagestani ace until now, presenting him with his first UFC main event and an opportunity to cement himself as a title contender.

No. 2-ranked Sandhagen (17-4) has long pursued a shot at the 135-pound title and has strung together consecutive wins over Song Yadong, Marlon Vera and Rob Font in headlining bouts to edge closer to his goal.

A former interim title challenger, “The Sandman” has other notable wins over Marlon Moraes and former lightweight king Frankie Edgar, both by highlight reel knockout.

A flashy striker, he’s added a solid layer of grappling to his game, but he won’t want to engage Nurmagomedov on that front. Instead, he’ll have to rely on his speed and perpetual motion to chip away on the outside.

Sandhagen’s a tough test for anyone at 135 and a step up in competition for Nurmagomedov. However, the latter’s wrestling, top control and superhuman stamina should see him emerge victorious in a bout destined to go the distance.

Prediction: Nurmagomedov by decision.

Best Bet: Nurmagomedov by decision at 2.10.

Alternative Bet: Fight to go the distance at 1.71.

Shara Magomedov (1.40) v Michal Oleksiejczuk (3.05) (Middleweight)

Like Nurmagomedov, Magomedov is an undefeated force out of Dagestan. He, however, is known for his creative and powerful striking. Fast and lethal, “Bullet” is 13-0 with 11 knockouts and is coming off a bonus-winning stoppage of Antonio Trocoli in June.

Oleksiejczuk (19-8) presents him with a veteran test, although, the Pole finds himself in a slump having lost his last two fights, each by submission under two minutes against Michel Pereira and Kevin Holland respectively. Back for the third time in five months, he’ll welcome a striking duel and has 14 knockouts to his name.

Oleksiejczuk has power and veteran craftiness, but he’s a very hittable target and has hinted at retiring. That spells trouble against Magomedov, whose fast and high-volume striking should see him remain undefeated in style. 

Prediction: Magomedov by knockout.

Best Bet: Magomedov by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.90.

Alternative Bet: Magomedov at 1.40.

Marlon Vera (2.14) v Deiveson Figueiredo (1.74) (Bantamweight)

Former flyweight champion Figueiredo (23-3-1) has taken to bantamweight like a fish to water, beating two of the mainstays in the division in his first two fights at 135 pounds.

As if his decision win over Rob Font wasn’t impressive enough, he submitted ex-bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt at UFC 300 to shoot up to sixth in the rankings and plans to take out another division staple in his quest to win gold in a second weight class.

He’s made such an impression that he’s the favourite for this fight against Vera (23-9-1), who fought for the title last time out. With a previous victory over Sean O’Malley, Vera was hell-bent on beating him again and becoming champion but dropped a decision in the March match-up, leaving him having to rebound.

Though well-rounded, Vera’s game is all about establishing his piston-like jab. If he does so, he’s a relentless scorpion, however, rob him of his rhythm and he becomes a lot more beatable. Fourth-ranked “Chito” is as tough as they come, though, and has never been finished.

Figueiredo was one of the hardest hitters at flyweight and has relied more heavily on his wrestling and grappling since moving up to bantamweight. At 5’5″, he gives up three inches in height and will have to overcome a two-and-a-half-inch reach disadvantage.

“Deus da Guerra” will push the action, but I fancy Vera as the underdog. He’s bigger, stronger and younger with good takedown defence and a proven gas tank, so he shouldn’t get fatigued. Add his accurate, methodical striking and I see him bouncing back and halting Figueiredo’s ascend.

Prediction: Vera by decision.

Best Bet: Vera at 2.14.

Alternative Bet: Vera by decision at 4.00.

Tony Ferguson (5.55) v Michael Chiesa (1.16) (Welterweight)

Former winners of The Ultimate Fighter face off in the desert.

A legend of the sport, Ferguson (25-10) has endured a fall of grace unlike any other. One of the baddest 155-pounders in history, “El Cucuy” went on an iconic 12-fight win streak and claimed the interim title in his prime but has lost his last seven in a row.

Fans and UFC president Dana White have expressed their desire for the veteran to retire and you’d have to think a loss here, which sees him move up to 170 pounds, will signal the end of Ferguson’s UFC career.

Chiesa (16-7) is another tough match-up for him but fortunately, “The Maverick” is a submission specialist rather than a striker, which should limit the damage Ferguson takes. I say should because Ferguson’s the type of old-school warrior who refuses to tap.

Chiesa has fallen on hard times, too. He’s on a three-fight losing streak, however, he’s far from washed like Ferguson and should submit the 40-year-old. One can only hope he sinks in a rare-naked choke rather than a bone-breaking lock.

Prediction: Chiesa by submission.

Best Bet: Chiesa by submission at 2.20.

Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 1.95.

Mackenzie Dern (1.81) v Loopy Godinez (2.02) (Strawweight)

Top 10 strawweights square off in a key clash at 115 pounds.

Seventh-ranked Dern (13-5) is in a class of her own when it comes to the ground game in women’s mixed martial arts. A former Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion, she plays 3D chess while the rest play checkers when it comes to grappling.

She subsequently boasts the most submission wins in strawweight history with four and has tapped out a total of seven opponents in all. Her jiu-jitsu wizardry makes her a special attraction and a tough stylistic test for anyone in the division.

She’s hoping to arrest a two-fight skid that saw her come up short against former champion Jessica Andrade and Amanda Lemos.

Godinez (12-4) enjoyed an unrivalled run in 2023, becoming the first woman in UFC history to win four consecutive fights in a calendar year by taking care of Cynthia Calvillo, Emily Ducote, Elise Reed and Tabatha Ricci.

That purple patch saw her climb to 10th in the rankings, however, she started 2024 with a decision loss to Virna Jandiroba and is eager to return to her winning ways. The Mexican starlet is an all-action fighter and will look to outwork Dern on the feet.

At the end of the day, Dern has the elite-level experience Godinez lacks, while her striking and movement are improving, which coupled with her great grappling and Godinez’s lack of power, should see her get her hand raised.

Prediction: Dern by decision.

Best Bet: Dern at 1.81.

Alternative Bet: Dern by decision at 3.75 or submission at 3.50.

Joel Alvarez (1.52) v Elves Brener (2.60) (Lightweight)

What should be an action-packed lightweight affair will get the main card underway.

The pair have three knockouts apiece and 28 submissions between them (17-11 in Alvarez’s favour), so expect a highly entertaining and frantic scramble-fest.

Alvarez (20-3) has found himself in the top 15 in the past and would like to work his way back there. He’s shown a lot of upsides and has won six of his last seven, losing only to top contender Arman Tsarukyan. Last time out, the Spaniard tapped out Marc Diakiese.

Brener (16-4) hasn’t reached the heights his opponent has yet as he’s only in his second year in the UFC. The Brazilian had a perfect 2023 campaign, edging out Zubaira Tukhugov on the scorecards and knocking out both Guram Kutateladze and Kaynan Kruschewsky but tasted defeat against Myktybek Orolbai in May of this year.

Brener might be a talent for the future, but at this stage, “El Fenomeno” looks the better, more polished pugilist across the board and should bank the win.

Prediction: Alvarez by decision.

Best Bet: Alvarez at 1.52.

Alternative Bet: Alvarez by decision at 5.00.