UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen v Dillashaw Predictions

Former bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw returns for a blockbuster battle against Cory Sandhagen at UFC Vegas 32 on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

The American aces were meant to meet in May but Dillashaw’s comeback had to be delayed even further due to a nasty cut he sustained in training. The five-round headliner will be well worth the wait as two of the very best in the world go to war with a title shot likely up for grabs. 

The co-main event at the UFC APEX is another bantamweight battle, this time in the women’s bracket, where top-10 contenders Aspen Ladd and Macy Chiasson collide, while the third fight at 135 pounds (61kg) sees ranked rising stars Kyler Phillips and Raulian Paiva put ’em up. 

Also on the card is a featherweight fight between Darren Elkins and Darrick Minner, a flyweight meeting between Miranda Maverick and Maycee Barber and a compelling welterweight opener between Mickey Gall and Jordan Williams.

MAIN CARD (from 1 AM Sunday SA time):

Cory Sandhagen (1.52) v TJ Dillashaw (2.60) (Bantamweight)

Redemption and title aspirations are rolled into one as disgraced Dillashaw (17-4) looks to reignite his career. The former two-time bantamweight king is coming off a two-year suspension following a failed drug test and jumps straight back into the deep end. 

Interestingly, Sandhagen (14-2) fought on the last card Dillashaw was on. The latter headlined UFC Fight Night 143 in January 2019 and lost the belt in a champion versus champion super fight against Henry Cejudo, with the Olympic gold medallist scoring a flash TKO. Things then went from bad to worse for Dillashaw as he popped for EPO.   

Sandhagen, meanwhile, was relatively unknown when he submitted Mario Bautista on the undercard. He’s since soared to the upper echelons of the division in spectacular fashion, winning four of five to set up this showdown against the returning Dillashaw as the No.2-ranked contender. 

Sandhagen’s 7-1 in the UFC, four of those wins coming by knockout and one by submission. His lone loss was to Aljamain Sterling, who caught him in a rear-naked choke in their No.1-contender clash at UFC 250 last July. Sterling has since become champion and Sandhagen will be determined to seize the moment this time around with this, too, being a title eliminator. 

An excellent striker who seamlessly switches stances to keep opponents guessing and attack from a multitude of angles, Sandhagen bounced back from the loss to “Funkmaster” with two of the greatest knockouts in bantamweight history. He stopped Marlon Moraes with a spinning wheel kick last October and in February he finished former lightweight champion, Frankie Edgar, with one of the most lethal flying knees you’ll ever see.

In addition to having momentum on his side, Sandhagen’s five inches taller than Dillashaw at 5’11” and will have a three-inch reach advantage. As good as he is, Dillashaw is one of the best bantamweights of all time. Ring rust must be considered, but time away from the Octagon isn’t always negative, like one of Dillashaw’s great rivals Dominick Cruz has shown.

What is certain is that Sandhagen has never fought someone with the speed, footwork and wrestling ability of Dillashaw, who returns to a different landscape yet still the most complete 135-pound (61kg) fighter in the promotion, not to mention the experience that comes with being in seven title fights.

Sandhagen’s only been in one main event – the stunning aforementioned win over Moraes – and has never seen a fourth round. Dillashaw thrives in deep waters (fourth and fifth rounds), where he’s finished three of the four men who’d survived that long. 

There’s no discounting Sandhagen’s body of work during Dillashaw’s absence, but there is a sense of recency bias. Dillashaw’s unrivalled well-roundedness, experience and significant wrestling advantage – which I believe will be a major factor – should be too much for favourite Sandhagen to overcome. 

Prediction: Dillashaw via decision or submission.

Best Bet: Dillashaw at 2.60.

Alternative Bet: Dillashaw by decision or submission at 4.50.

Aspen Ladd (1.51) v Macy Chiasson (2.65) (Bantamweight)

Like Dillashaw, Ladd (9-1) returns after nearly two years away looking to remind the world that she’s the juggernaut of the bantamweight division. A great grappler who’ driven by animalistic aggression and impressive punching power, she takes the fight to her foes and has stoppage wins (six knockouts and one submission).

That record and wreckage see her remain third in the rankings despite being out of action since December 2019 with a major knee injury. Rust could be an issue, as well as a serious size discrepancy that sees her give up five inches in height and six inches in reach. 

The favoured Chiasson (8-1) won two on the trot (both by decision) in the time Ladd was on the sidelines to position herself at No.9 in the rankings. With four finishes (evenly split between KOs and submissions), the Ultimate Fighter season 28 winner is well-rounded, however, she’ll want to keep things on the feet in this one as her opponent has punishing ground-and-pound.

Ladd has looked unbeatable aside from the flash knockout she suffered at the hands of former champion Germaine de Randamie and is a significant step up in competition for Chiasson. The latter has never been finished, so I’m tipping Ladd to mark her return with a ground-based decision victory. 

Prediction: Ladd via decision.

Best Bet: Ladd at 1.51.

Alternative Bet: Ladd by KO/TKO/DQ/decision at 1.62.

Kyler Phillips (1.39) v Raulian Paiva (3.05) (Bantamweight)

Surging fighters are bullish to continue their winning ways. Fourteenth-ranked Phillips (9-1) has been ultra-impressive, putting together a four-fight hot streak, which he punctuated with a stellar win over Song Yadong last time out to break into the top 15. 

While not as eye-catching as his dance partner’s exploits, Paiva (20-3) prevailed in his last two Octagon outings but hit a speed bump on the scale, leading to his previously scheduled bout being scrapped and a move to bantamweight for the first time this weekend. 

Philips has more variation and is elusive in the stand-up department, hence his moniker “The Matrix.” He’s also the more dangerous of the two having won six of nine by stoppage (five knockouts and one submission). His Brazilian counterpart, conversely, has just seven finishes in 23 fights and more importantly, is very hittable, which spells doom against someone like Philips and is why he’s a sizeable dog.

Prediction: Philips via knockout. 

Best Bet: Philips by KO/TKO/DQ at 4.50.

Alternative Bet: Fight to finish under 2.5 rounds at 2.75.

Top 10 UFC knockouts of 2020

Darren Elkins (2.30) v Darrick Minner (1.66) (Featherweight)

These two will push the main eventers for Fight of the Night honours. UFC staple Elkins (25-9) isn’t known as “The Damage” for nothing. He knows how to dish out and take ungodly amounts of punishment and is never in a boring fight. 

Minner (26-11) shares this kill-or-be-killed mindset and has a remarkable finishing rate. All but three of his 26 wins are by finish, 22 of which being by submission. Elkins managed to pick up his first win in three years last time out, but the 37-year-old brawler’s on borrowed time. He’s tough and savvy enough on the ground to go the distance, but I see Minner getting his hand raised to make it three in a row. 

Prediction: Minner via decision. 

Best Bet: Minner by decision at 2.65.

Alternative Bet: Minner at 1.66.

Miranda Maverick (1.74) v Maycee Barber (2.15) (Flyweight)

I’m looking forward to these two flyweight firecrackers lighting up the UFC APEX. Two of the youngest and brightest prospects in the division, this may well be the first in a series of meetings between the two possible future title contenders. 

Momentum is firmly on the side of 24-year-old Maverick (9-2), who’s won seven successive fights, two of which came inside the Octagon. She has five wins by submission and one KO to her credit. Fellow southpaw Barber has dynamite in her hands, which has seen her knockout five opponents, but she hasn’t looked the same since the serious injury she suffered in her loss to Roxanne Modafferi. 

It was a painful double setback for “The Future”, ending her eight-fight unbeaten record and keeping her out for over a year, and she dropped a decision to Alexa Grasso in her comeback fight. If the 23-year-old connects with a clean shot, she’ll be back on track, but it’s more likely that Maverick will prevail on points. 

Prediction: Maverick via decision.

Best Bet: Maverick at 1.74.

Alternative Bet: Maverick by decision at 2.10.

Mickey Gall (2.50) v Jordan Williams (1.58) (Welterweight)

A coveted show-opening slot and desire to get back in the win column will add fuel to these welterweights’ fire. It’s essentially a striker versus grappler battle, with Williams (9-4-1NC) boasting seven knockouts and Gall (6-3) five submission victories, including choking out former WWE champion CM Punk back in 2016.

Williams’ last loss was also his UFC debut, whereas Gall has plenty of Octagon experience and has fought considerably tougher opposition such as Diego Sanchez and Mike Perry. Those advantages along with his grappling ability make him a great underdog pick.  

Prediction: Gall via decision or submission. 

Best Bet: Gall at 2.50.

Alternative Bet: Gall by decision or submission at 2.65.