UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik v Sakai Predictions

After a rare one-week break, the world’s leading mixed martial arts promotion returns in a big way as Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Augusto Sakai square off in a hard-hitting heavyweight headliner at UFC Vegas 28 on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

The co-main event at the UFC APEX is another battle of behemoths with Walt Harris and Marcin Tybura hooking ‘em up. It’ll be a moving event at middleweight as well, with three of the six main card bouts being contested in the 185-pound (84kg) division. 

MAIN CARD (from 1 AM Sunday SA time):

Jairzinho Rozenstruik v Augusto Sakai (Heavyweight)

The headliner is a crucial clash in the heavyweight division. Both men are ranked in the top 10 and coming off a loss, thus, it’s a fight neither can afford to lose. Sixth-ranked Rozenstruik (11-2) is a devastating kickboxer who knows how to land the kill shot. All but one of his wins are by knockout, seven of which came in the first round. 

Even more impressively, three of his victims are future Hall of Famers – decorated DutchmanAlistair Overeem and former UFC champions Andre Arlovski and Junior dos Santos. The Suriname savage showed he carries power for five rounds when he stopped Overeem with four seconds left in their main event battle in 2019, however, he was outpointed by Cyril Gane in an uneventful headliner in February. 

Ninth-ranked Sakai (15-1-1) has the footwork to frustrate Rozenstruik and the longer the fight goes, the more it’ll favour the Brazilian. Coming off a TKO loss to Overeem in his maiden UFC main event last September, it’ll be interesting to see if Sakai takes a more cautious approach or backs his power and pursues his 12th-career KO. 

Despite being heavier on his feet, Rozenstruik’s the more technical stand-up fighter. In the heavyweight division, it’s often the crisper and craftier striker who lands the telling blow, which is why I’m backing “Bigi Boy”. 

Prediction: Rozenstruik via knockout.

Best Bet: Rozenstruik by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.30.

Alternative Bet: Rozenstruik at 1.74.

Walt Harris v Marcin Tybura (Heavyweight)

With the winner of this co-featured bout set to leapfrog the loser of the main event in the rankings, there’s an added incentive for these two titans to deliver. Eighth-ranked Harris (13-8-1NC) has endured heartache inside and outside of the Octagon in recent years. His daughter was killed at the age of 19 in 2019 and he lost both of his fights since the tragedy by TKO.

Conversely, Tybura (20-6) is on a four-fight win streak that’s elevated him to 11th place in the rankings. Well-rounded, the Polish powerhouse is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with eight knockouts and six submission wins to his name. Harris, meanwhile, is an explosive power puncher – a special knockout artist with all 13 of his wins coming by KO. 

“The Big Ticket” has been guilty of gassing himself out early in search of the stoppage. The loss against Overeem is a prime example, with Harris blasting out of the gate and being moments away from a TKO win only for “The Reem” to survive and turn the tables in the second round.

Tybura’s win streak is cemented in smothering grappling, exactly the method of energy-sapping attack that targets questionable cardio, which should lead him to victory.   

Prediction: Tybura via decision.

Best Bet: His TKO win over former NFL star Greg Hardy in December was his first stoppage victory since 2017, so I’m tipping Tybura to get it done by decision at 2.80. 

Alternative Bet: Tybura by KO/TKO/DQ/decision at 1.68.

Roman Dolidze v Laureano Staropoli (Middleweight)

Meeting in the middle at middleweight (185 pounds/84kg), Dolidze (8-1) has done most of his fighting at light heavyweight (205 pounds/93kg), while Staropoli (9-2) has mainly competed at welterweight (170 pounds/77kg).

Dolidze’s drop to middleweight resulted in his first loss in March whereas his Argentinian adversary badly missed weight and lost his second successive fight at welterweight last time out, hence his move up to middleweight. 

Both are primarily strikers with solid submissions, with Georgia’s Dolidze set to have the wrestling edge. In a contest that should mainly play out on the feet, the bigger Dolidze should use his four-and-a-half-inch reach advantage to return to his winning ways.

Prediction: Dolidze via decision. 

Best Bet: Dolidze by decision at 2.75. 

Alternative Bet: Dolidze by KO/TKO/DQ/decision at 1.86.

Santiago Ponzinibbio v Miguel Baeza (Welterweight)

The most seasoned scrapper on the main card by a long shot, Ponzinibbio (28-4) will have to draw on all of his experience to find a way to stop the unbeaten Baeza. Well-versed and dangerous (22 of his wins coming by stoppage), the veteran missed his big shot when he lost to Neil Magny in a headlining bout in 2017. He only returned earlier this year and was knocked out by Jingliang Li in the first round. 

There’s a real sense that he’s being thrown to the lions, or should I say lion, here as Baeza boasts a perfect 10-0 record. Eight of his wins are finishes (seven knockouts and one submission), three of them in the UFC, including a TKO triumph over the legendary Matt Brown. Bank on the rise of “Caramel Thunder” to continue. 

Prediction: Baeza via knockout. 

Best Bet: Baeza by knockout at 2.75

Alternative Bet: Baeza by KO/TKO/DQ/decision at 2.00.

Dusko Todorovic v Gregory Rodrigues (Middleweight)

While on the opposite side of his UFC career, Rodrigues (9-3) faces a tall task similar to that of the above-mentioned Ponzinibbio as he makes his promotional debut against a man with a 10-1 record. That Todorovic’s only loss came in his last outing will help bolster belief in Rodrigues, who gets his shot in the UFC after back-to-back knockout wins following a loss on the Dana White Contender Series. 

However, it’s more likely to lead to a backlash from Todorovic, a skilled striker who seamlessly switches from conventional to southpaw and peppers opponents with a variety of attacks. His diversity, speed and footwork will cause problems for Rodrigues, who’s a grappler with heavy hands, and points to victory for Todorovic.

Prediction: Todorovic via decision. 

Best Bet: Todorovic by decision at 5.50.

Alternative Bet: Todorovic by KO/TKO/DQ/decision at 1.62.

Tom Breese v Antonio Arroyo (Middleweight)

Breese (12-3) has been consistently inconsistent in recent times, alternating between wins and losses in his last six fights. By that trend alone, he should bounce back this weekend, but there are more concrete clues to strengthen his case. Mainly, the UK prospect has a spear-like jab that he uses to pester opponents and set up combinations, which is the ideal path to victory against Arroyo (9-3). 

The Brazilian is a stand-up fighter as well but a much more patient one who likes to operate on the outside. The pressure Breeze brings inside the Octagon will likely force Arroyo out of his comfort zone while he’s also bound to struggle to keep up with the pace Breese is able to maintain, which is why the latter is a sizeable favourite.

Prediction: Breese via TKO. 

Best Bet: Breese by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.50.

Alternative Bet: Breese by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 at 6.50.