UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez v Waterson Predictions

Top 10 strawweights Marina Rodriguez and Michelle Waterson will look to make the most of the massive opportunity they’ve been afforded on short notice when they main event UFC Vegas 26 on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Former bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw was originally scheduled to headline the card with Cory Sandhagen but the blockbuster bout was postponed last Tuesday when news broke that Dillashaw had suffered a nasty cut in training.

It’s the most cursed card of the year thus far, with several fights either being cancelled or postponed including South Africa’s JP Buys’ bout against Francisco Figueiredo, Holly Holm’s match-up against Julianna Peña and Donald Cerrone’s clash with Diego Sanchez. Instead, the legendary Cerrone will now meet Alex Morono in the co-main event at the UFC APEX.

Staying in the welterweight division, top 10 standouts Neil Magny and Geoff Neal will square off. Plus, highly touted lightweight Gregor Gillespie will make his long-awaited return against Diego Ferreira, heavyweights Maurice Greene and Marcos Rogerio de Lima will collide and Angela Hill and Amanda Ribas will rumble at strawweight.

MAIN CARD (From Sunday 2 AM SA Time):

Marina Rodriguez v Michelle Waterson (Flyweight)

Don’t get ready, stay ready. That’s the motto most elite fighters live by and this weekend’s new headliners are exactly that, with Rodriguez (13-1-2) and Waterson (18-8) ranked sixth and ninth respectively in the strawweight division. That said, they’ve been given leeway in the weight cutting department with the bout set to take place at flyweight, 10 pounds north of their usual weight class.

In the context of a clash between fighters that are so evenly matched, that’s massive. As the bigger competitor, it tilts the scale in Rodriguez’s favour. Waterson is a natural atomweight (105 pounds/48kg), a division she ruled as champion in Invicta prior to joining the UFC.

Since the UFC doesn’t have an atomweight division, “The Karate Hottie” has been forced to compete at 115 pounds (52kg), where she gives up considerable size as a lean yet lethal 5’4″ fireball. Her exceptional striking, speed, footwork and submission prowess (nine wins by tapout) coupled with her warrior spirit have allowed her to successfully punch above her weight and have made her a staple in the strawweight top 10.

Now set to fight at 125 pounds (57kg), she hands her Brazilian opponent a sizeable edge. The 5’7″ Rodriguez will have a three-inch reach advantage and even more importantly, a significant strength advantage. Already a power puncher at strawweight, like she showed when she stopped Amanda Ribas in January, she’ll carry even more conviction on the feet this weekend.

It should be a compelling cat and mouse game with the smaller Waterson set to try to use her speed to frustrate, tire and pick Rodriguez apart similar to how she outpointed Angela Hill in their five-round affair last September. Rodriguez, in turn, will seek to use her size to lean on Waterson, force her to carry her bigger frame and pummel her with power punchers in close.

Waterson has struggled against bully-type opponents and 25 minutes is a long time to stay out of harm’s way against one of the more dangerous female fighters on the roster, who boasts half a dozen wins by knockout. Whether it’s sooner or later remains to be seen, but my money’s on Rodriguez to overwhelm Waterson.

Prediction: Rodriguez via TKO.

Best Bet: Rodriguez by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission at 3.50.

Alternative Bet: Waterson by submission/decision at 2.

Donald Cerrone v Alex Morono (Welterweight)

The most bizarre of circumstances brought this co-main event about. The originally scheduled legends clash was scrapped after Sanchez was swiftly cut from the UFC last week after failing to certify he was suffering from no health issues. The always game Cerrone (36-15) wasn’t going to miss out, though, and on Tuesday it was confirmed that Morono was the man who answered the call to take on the iconic “Cowboy” on short notice.

Cerrone’s racked up a record 23 wins in the UFC but it’s been almost two years to the day since he last tasted victory inside the Octagon. Since outpointing Al Iaquinta over five rounds, he lost four straight against Tony Ferguson, Justin Gaethje, Conor McGregor and Anthony Pettis, all of whom have held UFC gold.

It had become clear that the perennial contender could no longer hang with the elite and a majority draw in his most recent fight against Niko Price last September (later overturned when Price tested positive for marijuana) underlined that the great gunslinger is indeed on his last ride. The UFC’s all-time leader in finishes (10 knockouts and 17 submissions) may have lost a step, but he remains a threat to anyone he shares the Octagon with.

In Morono (18-7), he has a dance partner willing to go toe-to-toe, which will make for an exciting encounter. Eleven of his 18 wins are by stoppage (five KOs and six submissions), however, the last came against Zak Ottow in October 2019. Since then, “The Great White” has won two and lost two, most recently dropping a decision to Pettis in December.

It’s well-known that Cerrone’s a slow starter. He’s been stopped numerous times in the opening round, including when he challenged Rafael dos Anjos for the lightweight title back in 2015 and the blockbuster bout against McGregor last January, so there’s money to be made on Morono (first-round KO at 11.00).

Having said that, Cerrone is the more skilled fighter. Both men are high-level jiu-jitsu practitioners (Morono has never been submitted), so it’ll likely be a striking battle where Cowboy is the more technical and diverse of the two, which should prove decisive.

Prediction: Cerrone via knockout.

Best Bet: Cerrone by KO/TKO/DQ/submission at 4.00.

Alternative Bet: Cerrone by KO/TKO/DQ/decision at 1.74.

Neil Magny v Geoff Neal (Welterweight)

Two top welterweights looking to bounce back after falling short in main event matches. Ninth-ranked Magny (24-8) was outwrestled by Michael Chiesa, ending a three-fight win streak, while 10th-ranked Neal was outpointed by two-time title challenger Stephen Thompson in what was his first UFC loss.

Magny, who has won five of his past seven fights, is a tall and rangy technician. At 6’3″, he’s four inches taller than Neal and will have a five-inch reach advantage. With victories over the likes of Kelvin Gastelum and two former champions in Johny Hendricks and Robbie Lawler, “The Haitian Sensation” is truly amongst the welterweight elite.

Neal, who was 5-0 in the promotion before the Thompson loss, is powerful, explosive and aggressive. Known as “Handz of Steel”, all but one of his UFC wins are by stoppage. Magny, meanwhile, is a decision machine; 14 of his 24 career wins, including five of his last six, came by points.

Neal’s speed and power will pose problems, but as he showed against Lawler, Magny knows how to avoid disaster and should outwork and outwit the dangerous Neal.

Prediction: Magny via decision.

Best Bet: Magny at 2.55.

Alternative Bet: Magny by decision at 3.75.

Maurice Greene v Marcos Rogerio de Lima (Heavyweight)

Don’t blink when these two behemoths do battle. Even though they find themselves on the outskirts of the 265-pound (120kg) division, there’s always intrigue and anticipation in a heavyweight fight and the chances of this one going the distance are slim.

A towering titan at 6’7″, Greene (9-5) has earned seven of his nine wins inside the distance (two knockouts and five submissions) including his last triumph, which saw him tap out Gian Villante last June. De Lima (17-7-1) has only gone to the scorecards once in 11 Octagon appearances, with seven of those outings ending in the opening round.

With a dozen knockouts to his name, including the most recent over Ben Sosoli last February, he mainly lets his hands do the talking but has two wins by submission as well. In a fight that could go either way, I’m putting a few bucks on the underdog Greene to pull it out.

Prediction: Greene via stoppage.

Best Bet: Greene at 2.50.

Alternative Bet: Greene by KO/TKO/DQ/submission at 3.50.

Diego Ferreira v Gregor Gillespie (Lightweight)

Gillespie (13-1) has been grabbling with the demons of his first-ever defeat for over a year. It wasn’t just any loss, it came via one of the most vicious head kicks in UFC history courtesy of Kevin Lee in November 2019. Naturally, it ranked highly on our top 10 knockouts list that year.

Top 10 UFC Knockouts of 2019

Still ranked 14th, he’s a phenomenal wrestler – a former NCAA Division I national champion – and he’s not the lay and pray type. Before being put down by the former interim lightweight title challenger, The Gift’s unbeaten streak included six wins inside the Octagon, the last five of which were finishes. Of his 13 victories, six are by knockout, five by tapout and just two by decision.

His return comes against 12th-ranked Ferreira (17-3), a third-degree Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with seven submission wins to his name, including over former lightweight champion Pettis. A split decision defeat to Beneil Dariush in February cooled off a six-fight hot streak, so he’ll be ultra-motivated. In a tactical ground battle, I believe Gillespie will stay out of submissions and maintain top control to grind out a win.

Prediction: Gillespie via decision.

Best Bet: Gillespie by decision at 2.30.

Alternative Bet: Gillespie by KO/TKO/DQ/decision at 1.68.

Angela Hill v Amanda Ribas (Strawweight)

The big question here is, how will 11th-ranked Ribas (10-2) respond after suffering her first UFC loss against fellow Brazilian and this weekend’s headliner Rodriguez back in January? The well-rounded Ribas was on the fast track to stardom before then, going 4-0 including victories over big names like Paige VanZant and Mackenzie Dern.

Twelfth-ranked Hill (13-9), in contract, snapped a two-fight losing skid with a win over Ashley Yoder in March. The crafty veteran’s last two wins, and eight of 13 overall, are by decision, whereas Ribas has six finishes in her 10 fights, split evenly between knockouts and submissions. As the younger fighter by almost a decade, 27-year-old Ribas should be too fast and dynamic for Hill to handle.

Prediction: Ribas via stoppage.

Best Bet: Ribas by KO/TKO/DQ/submission at 3.50.

Alternative Bet: Ribas by decision at 2.30.