UFC Fight Night: Moreno v Albazi Predictions

The action will be fast and furious when former two-time flyweight champion Brandon Moreno battles surging contender Amir Albazi in a humdinger of a headliner at Rogers Place in Edmonton on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

UFC Edmonton’s co-main event will see former two-time strawweight queen Rose Namajunas rumble with fellow top flyweight contender Erin Blanchfield, while the UFC’s all-time leader in knockouts Derrick Lewis trades leather with the unbeaten Jhonata Diniz.

Two of Canada’s own – Marc-Andre Barriault and Mike Malott – will compete on home soil with the former facing Dustin Stoltzfus at middleweight and the latter Trevin Giles at welterweight. Plus, Caio Machado meets Brendson Ribeiro at light heavyweight.

MAIN CARD (from 2 AM Sunday SA time):

Brandon Moreno (1.58) v Amir Albazi (2.42) (Flyweight)

Top-five flyweights on opposite trajectories collide in what should be an action-packed main event scheduled for five rounds.

No. 2-ranked Moreno (21-8-2), the first-ever Mexican UFC champion and former two-time flyweight king, is looking to get back on track following two split decision losses to Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval, the former ending his second reign as 125-pound champion.

Third-ranked Albazi (17-1) is unbeaten in the UFC and riding a six-fight win streak. The Iraqi ace is coming off a split decision victory over former interim title challenger Kai Kara-France in his maiden main event last June and can make a strong case for a title fight with a win over “The Assassin Baby.”

Moreno is a super nippy striker (five knockouts) and a slick grappler (11 submissions). Fuelled by a warrior spirit, he’s never been finished in his 13-year career. Intelligent and experienced, he’s crisp and calculated and can keep a high pace for the full 25 minutes.

A flawless 5-0 since joining the UFC in 2020, Albazi has beaten Malcolm Gordon, Zhalgas Zhumagulov, Francisco Figueiredo, Alessandro Costa and France inside the Octagon and is keen to make up for lost time having last fought 17 months ago.

A flawless 5-0 since joining the UFC in 2020, Albazi has beaten Malcolm Gordon, Zhalgas Zhumagulov, Francisco Figueiredo, Alessandro Costa and France inside the Octagon and is keen to make up for lost time having last fought 17 months ago.

He underwent heart surgery last November and was set to meet Moreno in February but withdrew due to a neck injury, which required surgery. With his health issues finally behind him, Albazi, whose only defeat came on points to Jose Torres in 2019, faces the toughest test of his career.

As you’d expect from a top flyweight, “The Prince” is well-rounded (five knockouts and nine submissions). He’s not as smooth and speedy in the stand-up department as Moreno but the same was true against France and he managed to pip the Kiwi.

He’s set to have a strength advantage, however, Moreno is a tough man to get a hold of and even tougher to take down and keep on the map. Albazi hasn’t scored a lot of takedowns in the UFC yet, but one can expect him to try to force Moreno into clinch and grappling exchanges to slow him down and drain his gas tank.

Moreno may be on a two-fight slide, but both bouts could’ve gone either way. Albazi is talented and strong, but he’s never faced anyone the calibre of Moreno, whose speed, sophistication, takedown defence and experience should see him hand Albazi his first loss inside the Octagon.  

Prediction: Moreno by decision.

Best Bet: Moreno by decision.

Alternative Bet: Moreno by decision at 2.40.

Erin Blanchfield (1.76) v Rose Namajunas (2.10) (Flyweight)

Manon Fiorot seems to be next to challenge Valentina Shevchenko for the title, so the co-main event scheduled for five rounds could determine who faces the winner of that yet-to-be-announced championship bout.

Looking to conquer a second division, former two-time strawweight queen Namajunas (13-6) has found her groove at flyweight this year, picking up decision victories over Amanda Ribas and Tracy Cortez after suffering a broken finger and decision loss to Fiorot in her divisional debut last year.

A future Hall of Famer, fifth-ranked “Thug” is one of the greatest and beloved women’s mixed martial artists of all time. She’s lightning-quick with her hands and feet, super crisp and a submission threat with a world of big-fight experience. If she can make it a hat-trick of wins in 2024, she’ll all but punch her ticket to a future title shot.

Blanchfield (12-2) is determined to bounce back from her first UFC loss. After winning six straight fights in the promotion, she dropped a decision to Fiorot in March and faces another stiff challenge here. Pass the test against Namajunas and she’ll be right back in title contention. 

A powerful grappler, third-ranked “Cold Blooded” is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with good takedowns, a heavy top game and slick submissions along with ever-improving striking. With a size and strength advantage, she should be able to ground Namajunas a few times to grind out the win.

Prediction: Blanchfield by decision.

Best Bet: Blanchfield at 1.76.

Alternative Bet: Blanchfield by decision at 2.40.

Derrick Lewis (2.42) v Jhonata Diniz (1.58) (Heavyweight)

A fan-favourite brawler, Lewis (28-12) is nearing the end of his career at 39 but showed he’s not done just yet when he stopped Rodrigo Nascimento in May to extend his record for the most knockouts in UFC history to 15 and overall KO tally to 23.

“The Black Beast” is a former two-time title challenger, holds a win over former champion Francis Ngannou and has knocked out top contenders such as Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Volkov.

He’s not the most skillful fighter around but he’s deceptively athletic and is one punch away from finishing anyone he shares the Octagon with. Ranked 11th, he’s out to hold court and end his Brazilian opponent’s unbeaten streak.

Diniz is a perfect 8-0 with seven knockouts. Having started his UFC career with wins over Austen Lane (knockout) and Karl Williams (decision), the 32-year-old faces a step up in competition and has an opportunity to break into the top 15.

Whereas most of Lewis’ opponents seek to wrestle, Diniz will be willing to stand and bang with him as a former kickboxing world champion and will have a speed advantage. That said, Lewis has made a career out of beating fighters with better skillsets and attributes on paper and at plus money, he’s a good shout.

Prediction: Lewis by knockout.

Best Bet: Lewis by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.15.

Alternative Bet: Lewis at 2.42.

Caio Machado (1.64) v Brendson Ribeiro (2.40) (Light Heavyweight)

We have a battle of Brazilians at light heavyweight.

Machado (8-3-1) is no stranger to the Great White North having made his mixed martial arts bones on the Canadian regional circuit, where he became a three-time Battlefield Fight League heavyweight champion.

In fact, “Bigfoot” resides in Vancouver, so he’ll garner a lot of local support as he drops down to 205 pounds after coming up short at heavyweight in his first two UFC fights.

A southpaw with solid Muay Thai and kickboxing and a high-level grappler, he has a balanced skillset and six finishes to his name (four knockouts and two submissions).

Ribeiro (15-7) is in the same boat as his countryman in that he’s chasing his first triumph in the promotion following defeats to Zhang Mingling and Magomed Gadzhiyasulov.

“The Gorilla” is dangerous everywhere and boasts a 100% finish rate (nine knockouts and six submissions). With his killer instinct and three-inch reach advantage, Ribeiro makes for a great underdog pick.

Prediction: Ribeiro by stoppage.

Best Bet: Ribeiro at 2.40.

Alternative Bet: Ribeiro by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 3.25.

Marc-Andre Barriault (1.48) v Dustin Stoltzfus (2.70) (Middleweight)

Middleweights in desperate need of a win go to war in what should be a bout high on energy and excitement.

Both men have sub-par records in the UFC. Barriault (16-8) is 5-7-1 in the promotion and coming off two losses, whereas Stoltzfus (15-6) is 2-5 inside the Octagon and was knocked out by Brunno Ferreira last time out. Potentially on the chopping block, they’ll empty the tank as they seek to stick around in the big league.

French-Canadian Barriault has heavy hands, which have earned him 10 knockouts. “Powerbar” pushes a high pace and stays in his opponent’s face throughout, often forcing a mistake or outworking his foe. 

Stoltzfus’ biggest strength is his jiu-jitsu, which has netted him six submission wins. If he can’t get the fight to the ground, however, he tends to run into trouble. Add the fact that he’ll be fighting the crowd, and I see him being overwhelmed by the noise and Barriault’s pressure. 

Prediction: Barriault by knockout.

Best Bet: Barriault by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.00.

Alternative Bet: Barriault at 1.48.

Mike Malott (1.38) v Trevin Giles (3.10) (Welterweight)

The spotlight falls on local favourite Malott (10-2-1) as he aims to put his first UFC loss behind him in the main card opener.

The leader of the next wave of fighters from Canada, “Proper” started strong but gassed against welterweight gatekeeper Neil Magny on home soil in January, leaving him hell-bent on getting back on the horse. A pure predator, he has a 100% finish rate (four knockouts and six submissions) and says he’s in the best shape of his life.

South African fans might remember Giles (16-6) as he ran into Dricus du Plessis on the baddest man in Mzansi’s march to the middleweight championship in 2021. He had moments of success against “Stillknocks” but was knocked out in the second round, prompting him to drop down to welterweight.

“The Problem” is 2-3 since his move to 170 pounds and is hurting following back-to-back stoppage losses. This is a favourable matchup for Malott and given his finishing ability, he should return to the win column in style.

Prediction: Malott by stoppage. 

Best Bet: Malott by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 1.80.

Alternative Bet: Malott by submission at 3.15