UFC Fight Night: Moicano v Saint Denis Predictions

Local favourite Benoit Saint Denis has his sights set on a successful homecoming when he squares off against Renato Moicano in the main event of UFC Paris at Accor Arenaon Saturday night, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Saint Denis spearheads a savage squad of French fighters on the main card with Nassourdine Imavov, Kevin Jousset, Fares Ziam, William Gomis and Morgan Charriere all set to compete on home soil.

Imavov will battle Brendan Allen in the co-main event, Jousset will take on Bryan Battle in a welterweight contest and Ziam will face Matt Frevola at lightweight. Meanwhile, two featherweight fights will see Gomis go toe to toe with Joanderson Brito, and Charriere collide with Gabriel Miranda.

MAIN CARD (from 9 PM Saturday SA time):

Renato Moicano (3.30) v Benoit Saint Denis (1.35) (Lightweight Championship)

A kill-or-be-killed fighter, Saint Denis (13-1) plans to return with a vengeance following his Fight of the Night battle with Dustin Poirier in March, in which he went toe to toe with the former interim champion until he was knocked out in the second round.

On a five-fight win streak prior to his clash with “The Diamond”, Saint Denis is as dangerous as they come. The former French Army Special Forces paratrooper lives up to his “God of War” moniker with a 100% finish rate (four knockouts and nine submissions)

In his mind, it’ll take an army to stop him from getting his hand raised on home soil. It’s the 28-year-old’s first time headlining a UFC card, while it’s his opponent’s first marquee match since 2019.

A former featherweight, Moicano (19-5-1) is hitting his straps at lightweight, where he’s hunting his fourth straight win after seeing off Brad Riddell, Drew Dober, and Jalin Turner.

Ranked one place above his foe at No. 11, the Brazilian is known for his world-class grappling, which has netted him 10 submission wins, and saw him ground-and-pound his way to a first TKO victory over Turner in April.

Moicano has experience on his side, but that’s about it. Saint Denis should be able to cancel him out in the grappling department and is the much better and heavy-handed striker, leaving him poised to close the show with a popular stoppage win.

Prediction: Saint Denis by knockout.

Best Bet: Saint Denis by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.90.

Alternative Bet: Saint Denis by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 1.54.

Nassourdine Imavov (1.45) v Brendan Allen (2.80) (Middleweight)

Top 10 middleweights meet in the co-main event scheduled for five rounds.

Living up to his nickname, Allen (24-5) has been “All In” in his impressive run of seven successive wins. Only champion Dricus du Plessis boasts a better purple patch at present at 185 pounds.

Unlike the fighting pride of South Africa, though, Allen’s wins have come against mid-tier opposition rather than fighters inside the top 10, so this is a step up for him and a test of whether the eighth-ranked American is truly an elite middleweight.

An excellent grappler, Allen uses strength and technique to take opponents to the ground where he’s heavy on top and a serious, versatile submission threat with 14 tapout victories, including four of the trot prior to his decision win over Chris Curtis last time out in April. However, his striking leaves a lot to be desired.

On the feet is where Imavov (14-4) thrives as he showed when he stopped former title challenger Jared Cannonier in the fourth round of their main event clash in June to move up to fourth place in the rankings.

Smooth and sharp, he’s on a three-fight unbeaten streak with his only loss since 2022 coming against former champion and current No. 1 contender Sean Strickland. 

With six knockouts and four submissions to his name, Imavov is a well-rounded warrior whereas Allen is one-dimensional, and has only been submitted once, back in his pro debut in 2016.

His complete skillset and intelligence should see him turn back the streaking Allen.

Prediction: Imavov by decision.

Best Bet: Imavov by decision at 2.65.

Alternative Bet: Over 2.5 rounds at 1.74.

William Gomis (3.35) v Joanderson Brito (1.34) (Featherweight)

A slick striker high on confidence, Gomis (13-2) hasn’t lost since 2016. He’s riding a 10-fight win streak with three of those coming inside the Octagon.

A tall, fast and predatory featherweight, “Jaguar” most recently scored his seventh knockout against Yanis Ghemmouri last September.

Despite this, he’s a heavy underdog against the impressive Brito (17-3-1). The Brazilian earned his UFC contract by beating Diego Lopes on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021 and that Lopes is currently ranked third in the division shows the potential Brito has.

“Tubarao” has won five on the trot, all by finish, and is as dangerous on the ground as he is on the feet. With more weapons in his arsenal, back Brito to march on.

Prediction: Brito by stoppage.

Best Bet: Brito by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 2.00.

Alternative Bet: Brito by KO/TKO/DQ at 4.00.

Kevin Jousset (2.42) v Bryan Battle (1.58) (Welterweight)

Welterweights sharing a 10-2 record rumble in the first half of the main card.

It’s easy to assume that these fighters, given their identical records, are on the same level and while little separates them, Battle does have an edge as he’s faced stronger competition. 

Winner of season 29 of The Ultimate Fighter, at middleweight, Battle is 3-1 with one no-contest since dropping down to welterweight. After claiming stoppage wins over Gabe Green and AJ Fletcher last year, the first by knockout and the second by submission, his fight with Ange Loosa in March was prematurely halted due to an accidental eye poke, leaving him frothing to get going in 2024.

Jousset has won his first two assignments in the UFC and five straight overall. Training with Israel Adesanya and the crew at City Kickboxing, “Air” is adept in the striking department and no slouch when it comes to grappling as he showed when he submitted Kiefer Crosbie in his promotional debut.

Going the distance in his win over Song Kenan would’ve made him more comfortable inside the Octagon but with Battle having more UFC experience, Jousset is up against it. “The Butcher” is a better grappler as well and his ability to dictate where fights take place should see him prevail.

Prediction: Battle by decision.

Best Bet: Battle at 1.58.

Alternative Bet: Battle by decision at 2.50.

Morgan Charriere (1.14) v Gabriel Miranda (5.85) (Featherweight)

It’s a classic striker versus grappler battle at 145 pounds. Charriere (19-10-1 with 11 knockouts) will look to keep the fight standing while Miranda (17-6 with 16 submissions) will be determined to drag his French foe to the ground.

Charriere made good on his long-awaited UFC debut in Paris this time last year, stopping Manolo Zecchini in the first round, but dropped a split decision to Chepe Mariscal in his follow-up effort in April.

Miranda, who comes in for AJ Cunningham on short notice, hopes to end up on the right side of things this time around after he lost to Saint Denis at UFC Paris two years ago.

He bounced back from that loss, which was his promotional debut, by submitting Shane Young last September and he’s looking to be more active after fighting just three times in as many years.

Miranda has proven to be very hittable, absorbing 6.88 significant strikes per minute, which along with him not having had a full training camp, is why he’s the biggest underdog on the main card.  

Add Charriere’s quickness and hand speed and “The Last Pirate” is set to send his home crowd into a frenzy.

Prediction: Charriere by knockout.

Best Bet: Charriere by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.64.

Alternative Bet: Charriere by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 1.57.

Fares Ziam (1.76) v Matt Frevola (2.10) (Lightweight)

The main card opener carries the shortest odds and should be a fun fight.

With momentum on his side in the form of a three-fight win streak and home advantage, Ziam (15-4) is the slight favourite. He has good technical skills on the feet but lacks finishing prowess, which has seen him go to a decision in five of his last seven fights, including in a losing effort to South Africa’s Don Madge back in 2019.

In contrast, Frevola (11-4-1) is a formidable wrestler with devastating punching power. Notably, his resume includes tougher opponents like Dober, who he beat to complete a hat-trick of knockout victories before he ended up on the wrong end of a KO against Saint Denis last time out in November.

All in all, the wrestling expertise of “The Steamrolla” should neutralize Ziam’s grappling game and Frevola’s punching power should prove decisive.

Prediction: Frevola by knockout.

Best Bet: Frevola at 2.10.

Alternative Bet: Frevola by KO/TKO/DQ at 6.50.