UFC Fight Night: Makhachev v Moises Predictions

A new contender will rise when top-15 lightweights Islam Makhachev and Thiago Moises meet in the main event of UFC Vegas 31 on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

Max Holloway and Yair Rodriguez were meant to headline the event at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas but the former featherweight champion was forced out of the fight through injury. 

Instead, the boogeyman of the lightweight division takes centre stage intent on making an emphatic statement at Moises’ expense. The co-main event sees former bantamweight queen Miesha Tate come out of retirement to take on top-15 veteran Marion Reneau. 

Also on tap is a lightweight banger between knockout artist Jeremy Stephens and Mateusz Gamrot, a middleweight affair pitting Rodolfo Vieira against Dustin Stoltzfus and a featherweight opener between Gabriel Benitez and Billy Quarantillo.

MAIN CARD (from 4 AM Sunday SA time):

Islam Makhachev (1.14) v Thiago Moises (5.75) (Lightweight)

All eyes will be on Makhachev, regarded by many of his peers and experts as a future champion, as he aims to maximise his first main event. He’s widely hyped as “the next Khabib Nurmagomedov” and while he doesn’t quite have the killer instinct that the former undisputed and undefeated king of the lightweights had, the hype is real.

A combat sambo world champion, he’s a fearsome grappler in the same vein as “The Eagle”, his good friend and former training partner, and bulldozed the dangerous Drew Dober last time out at UFC 259. That victory in March was his seventh in a row, his eighth by submission and improved his record to 19-1, his only loss coming back in October 2015 when he got caught by Adriano Martins.

The Dagestan wrecking ball has smashed his way to ninth in the rankings on a march so dominant that the UFC has struggled to find opponents willing to step inside the Octagon with him. Every contender ranked above him who’s been offered to fight him has turned him down, citing his lack of name recognition. That won’t be the case for much longer, but for now, the highly-touted Makhachev settled for a fight with No.14-ranked Moises (15-4). 

The Brazilian is a tricky test for anyone and has never looked better. He’s put together a three-fight win streak, which includes a noteworthy victory over Michael Johnson via ankle lock, his sixth submission win. As a BJJ black belt, he’s comfortable and dangerous off his back, but Makhachev is a master of positioning.

Going three rounds with a tireless terror like Makhachev is daunting enough; now, Moises is the first of what’s set to be many with the frightening task of having to survive 25 minutes with an absolute beast of a grappler. Going the distance would be a victory in defeat for the massive underdog, but I sense Makhachev will be out to make a statement, so I don’t see the Brazilian lasting until the end.  

Prediction: Makhachev via submission or TKO (ground-and-pound). 

Best Bet: Makhachev by KO/TKO/DQ/submission at 2.40.

Alternative Bet: Fight not to go the distance at 2.00.

Marion Reneau (2.15) v Miesha Tate (1.74) (Bantamweight)

The co-main event is a bantamweight battle between a fighter coming out of retirement and one heading into it. Tate (18-7), a pioneer of women’s MMA, returns after five years away hoping to reclaim former glory, while 44-year-old Reneau (9-7-1) seeks to end her career on a high. 

Reneau has recorded some notable wins in her career, none bigger than the submission victories over Jessica Andrade in 2015 and former Invicta champion Sara McMann in 2018. However, she hasn’t won a fight since the latter triumph, losing all four of her last Octagon outings by decision.

It’s clear that the Belizean Bruiser’s best days are behind her, but, she’s still ranked 12th and shouldn’t be taken lightly. That said, a prime Tate would’ve steamrolled her with her famous wrestling. That she hasn’t fought since 2016 makes her a slight rather than sizeable favourite as ring rust has had varying effects on fighters and returning champions in particular. 

Several factors count in her favour though – her superior pedigree, the favourable stylistic match-up, the fact that she kept training throughout retirement and that she’s still only 34. What’s more, Tate, who choked out Holly Holm in the main event of UFC 200 to win the bantamweight belt and had a legendary rivalry with Ronda Rousey, wasn’t washed up when she hung up her gloves. She was dethroned by Amanda Nunes, who’s walked through everyone she’s faced since to cement herself as the two-division champion/GOAT, and it certainly wasn’t a blowout when she was outpointed in her last fight by Rachel Pennington.

Even with some expected rustiness, I’d be shocked if a reinvigorated “Cupcake” can’t get past Reneau. She should be able to ground her veteran foe and while she’ll have to be wary of Reneau’s submission skills as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Tate’s top control has always been impeccable and she has good jiu-jitsu in her own right, so I’m expecting the former 135-pound (61kg) queen to grind out a decision. 

Prediction: Tate via decision. 

Best Bet: Tate at 1.74.Alternative Bet: Tate by decision at 2.40.

Jeremy Stephens (2.75) v Mateusz Gamrot (1.47) (Lightweight)

Stephens (28-18) is a straight-up savage. He loves nothing more than to stand and bang and is usually the last man standing. One of the hardest-hitting featherweights in UFC history, 19 of his 28 wins are by KO, while he also has two wins by submission. 

He’s been on the short end of the stick in recent years, though, a slide that started with a brutal body shot by ex-champion Jose Aldo that finished their high-stakes showdown in 2018. He’s lost all three of his fights since, including suffering a crushing defeat at the hands (and elbows) of Calvin Kattar last time out, which made our top 10 knockouts of 2020 list.

As a result, “Lil Heathen” is moving up to lightweight for the first time in nine years, where Gamrot looms large with a stellar 18-1 record. The Polish prospect is a former KSW champion boasting six knockouts and four submissions. His lone loss came by split decision to Guram Kutateladze in his UFC debut, which he bounced back from in style when he knocked out Scott Holtzman in April. 

“Gamer” is more calculated and disciplined on the feet than Stephens, who’s often paid the price for becoming reckless when he sees red and more well-rounded, so I’m tipping him to pick up a decisive win in a thrilling scrap. 

Prediction: Gamrot via stoppage. 

Best Bet: Gamrot by KO/TKO/DQ/submission at 2.30.

Alternative Bet: Gamrot by knockout at 3.00.

Rodolfo Vieira (1.45) v Dustin Stoltzfus (2.80) (Middleweight)

A middleweight match-up in which both combatants will be looking to get back on track. Four-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion Vieira was a flawless 7-0 – all finishes (six submissions and one knockout) – before suffering the most embarrassing of maiden losses as he gassed out and got tapped out by Anthony Hernandez in February.   

Stoltzfus, meanwhile, is coming off a disappointing UFC debut that saw him lose a decision to Kyle Daukaus last November. It was just his second loss and snapped a 10-fight win streak. He’s primarily a striker yet five of his 13 wins are by submission and only two by KO. 

Vieira’s grappling is on another level and after learning a humbling lesson last time out, he’ll pace himself and most likely force, Stoltzfus, to submit.  

Prediction: Vieira via submission.

Best Bet: Vieira by submission at 1.90.

Alternative Bet(s): Vieira by stoppage in round one at 2.65 or round two at 5.50.

Gabriel Benitez (1.62) v Billy Quarantillo (2.40) (Featherweight)

I’m quite surprised that Quarantillo (15-3) comes back as a 2.40 underdog in this main card opener, which should be a good one. Benitez (22-8) has a grappling advantage, but Quarantillo’s no novice on the ground. In fact, they’re very similar, which leads me to believe the odds-makers put a lot of stock in the fact that Benitez won his last fight and Quarantillo came up short in his.

It’s worth noting, though, that Quarantillo was on an eight-bout win streak before his decision loss to Gavin Tucker last December. Also, I’m among those who question Benitez’s discipline and motivation after he botched his last weight cut so badly that he ended up 4.5 pounds over the 145-pound (66kg) limit, resulting in Jonathan Pierce declining to face him in their scheduled April meeting. 

In a fight of evenly-matched finishers (Quarantillo has won 11 of 15 by stoppage and Benitez 18 of 22), I’m backing the underdog to take a bite out of the favourite. 

Prediction: Quarantillo via stoppage. 

Best Bet: Quarantillo at 2.40.

Alternative Bet: Quarantillo by KO/TKO/DQ/submission at 5.00.

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.