UFC Fight Night: Magny v Prates Predictions

Welterweight top-15 mainstay Neil Magny clashes with rising bonus collector Carlos Prates in the main event of UFC Vegas 100 on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt meets Miles Jones in the co-headliner of the milestone event at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, while a second scrap at 135 pounds will see Ricky Turcios battle Bernardo Sopaj.  

Former two-division ONE Championship champion Reinier de Ridder makes his much-anticipated UFC debut against Gerald Meerschaert at middleweight with the main card also featuring two strawweight bouts, with Karolina Kowalkiewicz facing Denise Gomes, and Luana Pinheiro squaring off against Gillian Robertson.

MAIN CARD (from 2 AM Sunday SA time):

Neil Magny (6.50) Carlos Prates (1.12) (Welterweight)

A battle-hardened warrior, Magny (29-12) has been a staple in the UFC since his debut win over Jon Manley back in 2013.

Eleven years in and he holds the UFC record for most decision wins (14) as well as welterweight records for most fights (33), most wins (22), total fight time (6:51:58), significant strikes landed (1418) and total strikes landed (2538).  

He’s faced some of the biggest names at 170 pounds over the years and has beaten two former champions in Johny Hendricks and Robbie Lawler. In recent years, he’s served as the division’s gatekeeper, the litmus test for prospects looking to level up.

Clinging onto the last place in the top 15, his longevity is a testament to his well-rounded skillset, determination and dedication. Since 2022, though, “The Haitian Sensation” has been consistently inconsistent, trading wins and losses in his last eight fights.

His two fights this year are prime examples of his erratic form as he rallied to cause a massive upset over Mike Malott in January before being knocked out by Michael Morales in August. He’ll have to be at his sharpest here to avoid another crushing loss as he faces a hungry and extremely dangerous prospect out of Brazil. 

https://twitter.com/ufc/status/1853512790046036313

Prates (20-6) has been nothing but impressive in his first year in the UFC, scoring three consecutive knockout wins and performance bonuses to earn this maiden main event opportunity.

He announced himself in style by stopping Trevin Giles in the second round in his promotion debut in February before crushing Charles Radtke in the opening round in June and lashing Li Jingliang in the second round in August.

The 31-year-old is a finisher of note with 18 of his career wins coming by stoppage (15 knockouts and three submissions). Magny, in contrast, is a decision machine. Overall, Prates is unbeaten in the last six years with his UFC hat-trick extending his win streak to 10.

Magny’s a tricky out not just because of his experience but also because he’s tall and rangy for the weight class. At 6’3″, he has a two-inch height and reach advantage. Prates, meanwhile, has a major power and speed advantage and is puzzling on the feet given he’s a southpaw with good footwork.

Those advantages, coupled with his momentum, should see “The Nightmare” get past Magny to break into the rankings.  

Prediction: Prates by knockout.

Best Bet: Prates by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.25.

Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 at 1.48.

Cody Garbrandt (2.24) v Miles Johns (1.67) (Bantamweight)

Few have had a more gutting fall from grace than Garbrandt (14-6), whose title-winning masterclass against Dominick Cruz in December 2016 feels like a lifetime ago.

He hasn’t been the same since he lost the belt to friend-turned-bitter rival TJ Dillashaw, who knocked him out in their pair of meetings in 2017 and 2018. Still only 33, he remains dedicated to his craft but is no longer among the bantamweight best. In fact, he’s dropped out of the top 15 altogether.

Johns (15-2) has never been in that category, so this is a winnable fight for “No Love”. He’d beaten Trevin Jones and Brian Kelleher, two men on Johns’ level, before being submitted in his last fight by ex-flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo and has the hand speed, power and footwork to get the job done.

Johns, who mixes striking with wrestling, earned this crack at a big name off the back of a four-fight win streak, with all four victories coming by decision. Balanced and calculated, “Chapo” is a point-fighter on the feet and a grappler who values position over submission.

It makes sense for the streaking Johns to be the favourite, but he’s never faced someone like Garbrandt, whose power advantage, experience and maturity should see him return to the win column.

Prediction: Garbrandt by knockout.

Best Bet: Garbrandt at 2.24.

Alternative Bet: Garbrandt by KO/TKO/DQ.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (4.90) v Denise Gomes (1.19) (Strawweight)

Former title challenger Kowalkiewicz (16-8) looks to protect her position in the top 15 against a heavy-hitter from Brazil in the featured bout. Interestingly, the Pole is the second oldest fighter in the strawweight division at 39 and Gomes (9-3) the second youngest at 24.

After losing five straight fights against the cream of the crop, Kowalkiewicz managed a major turnaround, winning her next four in a row before dropping a decision to Iasmin Lucindo in May. A tactician with a ton of experience, she’s out to correct course once again and hold onto her 15th-place ranking.

Gomes has great power for a strawweight, which has seen her pick up six career knockouts. She’s 3-2 in the UFC and coming off a split-decision win over Eduarda Moura in June. As the much younger fighter, “Dee” will have a big speed advantage and pushes a pace a veteran like Kowalkiewicz will struggle to keep up with.

Kowalkiewicz has only been knocked out once, by former champion Jessica Andrade in 2018, so Gomes will most likely win on the scorecards.

Prediction: Gomes by decision.

Best Bet: Gomes by decision at 1.68.

Ricky Turcios (3.70) v Bernardo Sopaj (1.29) (Bantamweight)

Since winning Season 29 of The Ultimate Fighter, Turcios (12-4) is 1-2 in the UFC with a win over Kevin Natividad sandwiched in between losses to Aiemann Zahabi and Raul Rosas Jr.

“Pretty Ricky” is successful when he pushes the pace and is relentless with his wrestling and grappling. However, he’s lacked energy and urgency as of late and needs to go back to what brought him to the dance.

Making his UFC debut on short notice against Vinicius Oliveira in March, Sopaj (11-3) gave a good account of himself before being caught with a wicked flying knee late in the third round.

The Swede is a savage, having claimed all but one of his wins by stoppage (seven knockouts and three submissions), and with a full camp behind him, “The Lion King” should roar to his first win inside the Octagon.

Prediction: Sopaj by knockout.

Best Bet: Sopaj by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.75.

Alternative Bet: Sopaj by decision at 1.95.

Gerald Meerschaert (3.40) v Reinier de Ridder (1.33) (Middleweight)

All eyes will be on De Ridder (17-2) as he finally makes his UFC debut.

The sky’s the limit for “The Dutch Knight”, who claimed the middleweight and light heavyweight titles in ONE Championship, but he faces a tricky veteran test to start his tenure in the world’s leading mixed martial arts promotion.

Known for his grappling expertise, De Ridder has snapped up 11 submission wins, while he also has four knockouts to his name, one of which came in his last fight against Magomedmurad Khasaev in July.

Meerschaert (37-17) is also best known for his submission skills. The veteran has tapped out no less than 29 foes and is on a two-fight win streak. “GM3” got the better of Bryan Barberena by face crank and subbed Edmen Shahbazyan with a triangle choke last time out.

This could either be an exciting scrambling fest or they could cancel each other out in the grappling department and make it a stand-up fight. De Ridder is the better pure athlete, and his explosiveness mixed with the high of making his UFC debut should propel him to victory. 

Prediction: De Ridder by stoppage.

Best Bet: De Ridder by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 2.00.

Alternative Bet: De Ridder by submission at 2.65.

Luana Pinheiro (4.10) v Gillian Robertson (1.25) (Strawweight)

Top-15 strawweights will get the main card underway in what should be a fun fight.

Thirteenth-ranked Pinheiro (11-3) started her UFC run with three consecutive wins but finds herself in a slump having been finished by Amanda Ribas and Angela Hill in her last two bouts. The Brazilian is aggressive on the feet, often to a fault, and has solid judo.

Fourteenth-ranked Robertson (14-8) has momentum on her side. He scored a big TKO win over Polyana Viana to start the year and followed it up with a decision victory over the legendary Michelle Waterson-Gomez.

The Canadian holds the record for the most submission wins of any female fighter in UFC history with seven and with Pinheiro being submitted by a striker in Hill last time out, I’m banking on “The Savage” to tap her out.

Prediction: Robertson by submission.

Best Bet: Robertson by submission at 2.10.

Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 1.65.