UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry v Prates Predictions

Former light heavyweight title challenger Anthony Smith makes his final walk to the Octagon to face Zhang Mingyang in the co-main event, while exciting featherweights Giga Chikadze and David Onama duke it out in the featured bout.

The main card also includes two middleweight matchups, the first of which will see Ikram Aliskerov take on Andre Muniz and the second pits Michel Pereira against Abus Magomedov, and a welterweight bout between Randy Brown and Nicolas Dalby.

MAIN CARD

Ian Machado Garry (1.76) v Carlos Prates (2.00) (Welterweight)

When: Sunday, April 27, 3:00 AM SAST

Dangerous strikers in the welterweight top 15 trade leather in this weekend’s main event.

The compelling clash replaces the event’s original headliner of former light heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree Jr, which fell through due to injury.

Prates (21-6) was originally scheduled to face Geoff Neal at UFC 314 two weeks ago, but Neal was forced off the card due to injury. It proved to be a blessing in disguise for the Brazilian as he’s now netted a higher-ranked and more high-profile opponent.

Stepping up on short notice, seventh-ranked Machado Garry (15-1) is coming off the first loss of his career, a five-round decision to unbeaten top contender Shavkat Rakhmonov in December. Despite the loss, the Irish star’s stock has remained very high and he enters his first main event with a UFC record of 8-1.

Highly technical and uber-confident, “The Future” has been compared to his countryman Conor McGregor and uses his range, accuracy and agility to piece up opponents. The outspoken 27-year-old has added needle to the matchup by branding Prates a “quitter.”

Ranked 13th, Prates has taken the UFC by storm. The 31-year-old enjoyed a breakthrough year in 2024, recording four knockouts in his first four fights inside the Octagon, including three in the first round.

The most recent of his quick and impressive victories came in his headlining debut against veteran Neil Magny in November, which pushed his win streak to 11.

This bout pits the crisp, technical and disciplined striking of Machado Garry against the unpredictable power punching of Prates. Having gone five full rounds with the apex predator of the 170-pound division in Rakhmonov, Machado Garry should stay out of severe danger and use his tactical and technical nous to get his hand raised.

Prediction: Machado Garry by decision.
Best Bet: Machado Garry at 1.76.
Alternative Bet: Machado Garry by decision at 3.60.

Anthony Smith (4.50) v Zhang Mingyang (1.18) (Light Heavyweight)

An old-school warrior, Smith (37-21) will throw down in the Octagon one last time in the co-headliner.

A former title challenger, Smith has been a fixture in the light heavyweight top 15 for over five years, but after back-to-back losses to Roman Dolidze and Dominick Reyes, the time has come for him to hang up his gloves after this weekend’s last hurrah.

With 20 knockouts and 15 submissions to his name, 15th-ranked “Lionheart” is a well-rounded finisher with veteran savviness. He boasts wins over former champions Rashad Evans and Shogun Rua and looks to end his career on a high note.

Unfortunately for him, his last assignment is against a young and hungry predator. Representing the next generation of 205-pound fighters, Zhang (18-6) is a full 10 years younger than Smith and has remarkably claimed all of his wins in the opening round (12 knockouts and six submissions).

As much as Smith is hoping for a fairy tale finish, you can chalk this one up for “The Mountain Tiger.”

Prediction: Zhang by knockout.
Best Bet: Zhang by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.44.
Alternative Bet: Zhang in round one at 1.85.

Giga Chikadze (2.37) v David Onama (1.55) (Featherweight)

Fighting to preserve his place in the featherweight top 15, No. 12-ranked Chikadze (15-4) has impressed with wins over Cub Swanson, Edson Barboza and Alex Caceres but has also landed on the wrong side of the results in bouts against Calvin Kattar and, most recently, Arnold Allen.

Injuries have limited the Georgian kickboxer to only three appearances in the last three years, but when he’s healthy and dialled in, “Ninja” remains a dangerous out for anyone who shares the Octagon with him.

Onama (13-2) touches down in Kansas City riding a three-fight win streak and having amassed a 5-1 record inside the Octagon since his short-notice debut loss up a division against Mason Jones in 2021.

The Ugandan prospect has power and athleticism in abundance and has 11 finishes to his name (seven knockouts and four submissions). For someone known as “The Silent Assassin”, he can make serious noise if he’s able to defeat Chikadze this weekend.

While Onama has momentum on his side, Chikadze is a cerebral competitor whose fight IQ and high-level experience should see him pull off the upset.

Prediction: Chikadze by decision.
Best Bet: Chikadze at 2.37.
Alternative Bet: Chikadze by decision at 3.75.

Michel Pereira (1.70) v Abus Magomedov (2.10) (Middleweight)

Exciting Pereira (31-12) aims to bounce back after his impressive eight-fight win streak was snapped by Anthony Hernandez last October.

The dynamic “Demolidor” was once the UFC’s craziest wild man. He would do backflips mid-fight and springboard off the Octagon fence to try to catch his opponent and entertain the crowd. It earned him a ton of fans but the energy-sapping style had mixed results and was always only going to take him so far.

Since pulling back on the unnecessary big actions and showboating, he’s been a rising force. He’s still uber-explosive and unpredictable but more sensible with his energy exertion and finds himself at No. 14 in the middleweight rankings.

Magomedov (27-6-1) is unranked but has plenty of potential. After a successful UFC debut against Dustin Stoltzfus, the German was pushed too far too soon and dropped consecutive outings to top names Sean Strickland and Caio Borralho, but has recovered well with wins over Warlley Alves (decision) and Brunno Ferreira (submission).

Pereira’s struggles have come against grapplers and with Magomedov being a fellow striker, the more explosive Brazilian looks poised to pick up the win.

Prediction: Pereira by knockout.
Best Bet: Pereira at 1.70.
Alternative Bet: Pereira by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.10.

Randy Brown (1.38) v Nicolas Dalby (2.90) (Welterweight)

After both of these welterweights suffered split decision losses in their last bout, they’ll do everything in their power to ensure they end up on the right side of things this weekend. Brown’s loss to Bryan Battle ended his three-fight win streak, while Dalby’s defeat to Rinat Fakhretdinov snapped his four-fight hot streak.

Brown (19-6) has both age and size on his side. He’s six years younger than his opponent, four inches taller and has a huge four-and-a-half-inch reach advantage. “Rude Boy” is also versatile and has solid finishing ability, although, this bout is destined to go to a decision as double-tough Dalby (23-2-1) has never been finished.

Crafty and well-conditioned, “Danish Dynamite” goes to a decision a lot but at 40 years of age, he has lost a couple of steps and that should see Brown get the better of him.

Prediction: Brown by decision.
Best Bet: Brown by decision (check markets).
Alternative Bet: Brown at 1.38.

Ikram Aliskerov (1.15) v Andre Muniz (5.00) (Middleweight)

After being scheduled to square off twice before, these two middleweights will finally meet inside the Octagon in the main card opener.

Aliskerov (15-2) started his UFC career in style by claiming stoppage wins over Phil Hawes and Warlley Alves and got a golden opportunity to vault into the division’s elite by accepting to fight Robert Whittaker on short notice last June.

The former champion, however, showed Aliskerov he’s not ready for that level just yet, handing him the second loss of his career in short order. That said, this is a very favourable matchup for him and should see him bounce back.

Muniz (24-6) hasn’t competed since halting a two-fight slide with a decision win over Jun Yong Park at the end of 2023. “Sergipano” relies heavily on his grappling and the fact that Aliskerov has never been submitted points to the Russian reigning supreme.

Prediction: Aliskerov by knockout.
Best Bet: Aliskerov by KO/TKO/DQ (check markets).
Alternative Bet: Under 1.5 rounds at 1.85.