UFC Fight Night: Lewis v Daukaus Predictions

Top-10 heavyweights Derrick Lewis and Chris Daukaus promise to close out the year with a bang when they headline the final UFC event of 2021 in Las Vegas on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

The co-main event of UFC Vegas 45 will see two of the best welterweights in the world square off at the APEX as former two-time title challenger Stephen Thompson takes on the surging Belal Muhammad, while ranked strawweights Amanda Lemos and Angela Hill face-off in the featured female bout. 

Also on tap is a riveting featherweight tilt between Raphael Assunção and Ricky Simon and a lightweight duel between Diego Ferreira and Mateusz Gamrot. But first, veteran sluggers Cub Swanson and Darren Elkins throwdown in a can’t miss main card opener at 145 pounds (66kg).

MAIN CARD (from 2 AM Sunday SA time):

Derrick Lewis (2.25) v Chris Daukaus (1.74) (Heavyweight)

There are knockout artists and then there’s Lewis (25-8), a throwback brawler who throws haymakers with malicious intent. Despite having arguably the most limited skillset among the heavyweight top 10, third-ranked Lewis’ ungodly power and ability to land the killer blow against strikers, wrestlers and jiu-jitsu experts alike have made him a mainstay of the 265-pound (120kg) elite.

It’s earned “The Black Beast” a special place in the annuals of the world’s leading mixed martial arts promotion as his dozen devastating knockouts are the most in UFC heavyweight history. It’s also powered him to two title fights. In 2018, he unsuccessfully challenged the legendary Daniel Cormier for the undisputed championship and his last bout saw the charismatic colossus headline UFC 265 in his hometown of Houston, where he fell short of claiming the interim belt against Ciryl Gane in August. 

To put that loss into context, Gane is undefeated and has unprecedented speed and athleticism for a heavyweight along with high-level kickboxing, which allowed him to stay out of danger and stop Lewis with strikes in the third round. Lewis had won four in a row before that, holds a win over reigning king Francis Ngannou and has claimed all but five of his 25 wins by KO.  

As a one-dimensional slugger, Lewis is a perennial underdog and carries that tag again, despite having just fought for the gold and being four places above Daukaus (12-3) in the rankings. A fresh face and rising star in the land of the giants, Daukaus is a perfect 4-0 in the UFC, all first-round knockouts bar his last bout against Shamil Abdurakhimov, who he stopped in the second round.

All but one of his wins are by KO and neither headliner has a takedown inside the Octagon, so this promises to be a slugfest. Daukaus, a full-time policeman, is the more mobile and prolific striker in terms of output, whereas Lewis is content to wait for his opening. 

It’s a risky tactic as he gives up rounds, but as he showed against Alexander Volkov and Curtis Blaydes (to use the two most high-profile examples), it only takes one shot for Lewis to erase the scorecards and separate his opponent from consciousness and his three-inch reach advantage will aid him in that savage strategy.

Whether it’s early or with seconds left on the clock, Lewis’ proven that he can finish a fight at any given moment, which makes him a dog with great value. He’s cashed out big in five of his last eight as the dog and while he’ll have to weather an early storm, I’m backing “The Black Beast” to do what he does best and knockout his favoured foe. 

Prediction: Lewis via knockout.

Best Bet: Lewis by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.75. 

Alternative Bet: Under 1.5 rounds at 1.95.

Stephen Thompson (1.44) v Belal Muhammad (2.85) (Welterweight)

The co-main event is the perfect contrast to the headlining slobber knocker. This will be a strategic chess match where one mistake, or even one misstep, could mark the end of the fight, particularly on Muhammad’s part. “Remember the Name” is on a roll. Unbeaten in his last six, he’s climbed up to 10th in the rankings and boasts an impressive record of 19-3.

All that momentum could come to a screeching halt when he comes up against his toughest test to date this weekend. Fifth-ranked Thompson (16-5-1) is not only a major step-up in competition, he’s also the single trickiest puzzle to solve in the division.  

“Wonderboy” is a multi-time kickboxing world champion and karate savant, whose sideways stance alone is unique in modern mixed martial arts. Bouncing on the outside, he uses his reach (he’ll have a three-inch advantage in this department) to touch up opponents with a variety of kicks and closes the distance like a cobra. That he’s a southpaw makes it even more challenging for opponents to land anything of substance. 

Those who get frustrated end up getting knocked out (seven have fallen), while others end up on the wrong side of the judges’ scorecards against one of the most sophisticated point fighters in the business. All, though, are tentative. Gilbert Burns was able to ground Thompson in his last fight in July to win a lacklustre decision. Had he won, Thompson would’ve been next in line for a title shot.

Burns was the first man who was able to blanket Thompson like he did. Muhammad is well-rounded but he doesn’t have the explosiveness and physical strength of Burns to take and keep Thompson down. Similarly, he has solid striking but nothing to seriously threaten the two-time title challenger. 

He’s a decision machine, with all but five of his wins coming by points, and Thompson isn’t the man to point fight. Muhammad’s high fight IQ will likely carry him through, but Thompson should get his hand raised due to his superior arsenal. 

Prediction: Thompson via decision. 

Best Bet: Thompson by decision at 1.95.

Alternative Bet: Thompson by KO/TKO/DQ/decision at 1.50.

Amanda Lemos (1.27) v Angela Hill (3.80) (Strawweight)

A dominator versus a durable veteran. It’s No.11 up against No.12. Few strawweights possess the power and predatory nature of Lemos. With nine of her 10 wins coming by stoppage, seven of those by knockout, “Amandinha” is a terrorising force riding a four-fight win streak.

Hill (13-10), conversely, has a decision rate of 63% and is 3-3 in her last six. She’s solid if not spectacular in all areas, which has made her a long-standing presence in the top 15. Her best trait is her craftiness; she mixes up her game well and knows how to avoid serious danger. She’s never been knocked out as a result, which has me leaning towards a decision or submission win for Lemos.

Prediction: Lemos via decision. 

Best Bet: Lemos by decision at 1.95.

Alternative Bet: Lemos by submission at 7.00.

Raphael Assunção (3.25) v Ricky Simon (1.35) (Featherweight)

A collision of featherweights on opposite career trajectories. Assunção (27-8) is on a three-fight losing streak and hasn’t been in action since getting slept by Cody Garbrandt in brutal fashion last June. He wouldn’t have lasted as long as he has if he wasn’t well-versed in all facets, but his submission prowess is his biggest strength, with the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt boasting 10 wins by tap out.

Simon (18-3), in contrast, is streaking. He’s won three in a row, so he has clear advantages in terms of activity and momentum. Mainly a wrestler, he uses much of his striking to mask takedown attempts, which he goes for relentlessly. That 10 of his 18 wins are by decision highlights his grinding style.

At 39, Assunção has little tread left on the tyres. That he’s ranked 12^th represents an opportunity for Simon, who’s a full decade younger than his veteran foe, to finally break into the top 15 and he’ll do just that by being the busier man. 

Prediction: Simon via decision.

Best Bet: Simon by decision at 2.20.

Alternative Bet: Fight to go the distance at 1.68.

Diego Ferreira (2.55) v Mateusz Gamrot (1.55) (Lightweight)

Ferreira (17-4) is in many ways the Assunção of the lightweight division. He, too, is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt sitting 12th in the rankings with 10 submission wins, the biggest by far coming against former 155-pound (70kg) champion Anthony Pettis last January.

The veteran grappler’s lost both of his fights since then, though, and looks to be in for another tough night. Gamrot has only tasted defeat once in his 20-fight career and it came by the narrowest margin possible. Following his split decision loss to Guram Kutateladze last October, he roared to back-to-back stoppages, showcasing his versatility by knocking out Scott Holtzman before submitting Jeremy Stephens in a flash.

Ferreira has had major issues dragging opponents down into his world and with “Gamer” having never been taken down, the latter’s vastly superior striking should result in a knockout. 

Prediction: Gamrot via knockout.

Best Bet: Gamrot at 1.55.

Alternative Bet: Gamrot by knockout at 4.00.

Cub Swanson (1.51) v Darren Elkins (2.65) (Featherweight)

A must-watch meeting between two all-action stalwarts of the sport who always bring the heat and are never in a boring fight. Swanson (27-12) has enjoyed far greater success in his career than his fellow veteran, including scoring back-to-back victories over the men who main evented last weekend’s pay-per-view – lightweight champion Charles Oliveira and Dustin Poirier back in 2012-13.

Elkins (26-9), however, won’t lose a second of sleep that he didn’t reach the same heights as Swanson in their prime. He just loves to scrap, and I mean LOVES! Bloody battles are what he’s all about; “The Damage” doesn’t mind taking some to give some and “outdogs” his opponents, which is exactly what he did to rally and win his last two fights.  

With a combined 30 finishes, 21 of them by knockout, expect a war. Swanson’s proven pedigree means it’s Elkins who’ll go down swinging. 

Prediction: Swanson via knockout.

Best Bet: Swanson by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.50.

Alternative Bet: Swanson at 1.51.

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.