UFC Fight Night: Lemos v Jandiroba Predictions

Top-five strawweights Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba will stake their claim for a title shot when they headline UFC Vegas 94 on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Middleweight veterans Brad Tavares and Jun Yong Park meet in the co-main event at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas while the rest of the main card features fighters in lower weight classes.

Two featherweight fights will see Steve Garcia and Seung Woo Choi and Doo Ho Choi and Bill Algeo do battle. Plus, Kurt Holobaugh and Kaynan Kruschewsky collide at lightweight, and Cody Durden and Bruno Silva square off at flyweight.

MAIN CARD (from 2 AM Sunday SA time):

Amanda Lemos (2.14) v Virna Jandiroba (1.74) (Strawweight)

It’s a battle of title-hungry Brazilians in the strawweight top five scheduled for five rounds. It’s a clash of styles pitting the prolific striking of Lemos (14-3-1) against the grappling wizardry of Jandiroba (20-3).

Third-ranked Lemos has been here before. She’s headlined two previous cards with mixed success, losing by submission to former champion Jessica Andrade before stopping Marina Rodriguez.

The latter earned her a crack at champion Zhang Weili last August in a bout that went the distance and saw Lemos come up short by unanimous decision.

She rebounded well by outpointing Mackenzie Dern in February to make it three wins in her last four outings and looks to put away countrywoman Jandiroba to earn another championship opportunity.

“Amandinha” comes from a boxing background but has evolved into a complete mixed martial artist. Her striking is crisp, and her power is on par with the best in the division.

Her TKO of Rodriguez last November was her eighth stoppage by strikes, while she has three finishes by submission as well. In terms of the latter, she’s bold and sudden with a history of catching opponents off guard by jumping for submissions. 

Fifth-ranked Jandiroba enters uncharted waters. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, who has 13 submissions to her name, is set to compete in her maiden main event on the back of the longest win streak of her UFC career, which includes victories over Rodriguez, Angela Hill and Loopy Godinez, all by decision. She now aims to insert herself into the title conversation with a win over the dangerous Lemos.

“Carcara” is a grappling genius who has a variety of ways to get an opponent to the map where she has excellent top control and slick submission set-ups. She offers little on the feet, where she’s stingy with her strikes and mainly uses them to mask takedown attempts. She is, however, defensively responsible on the feet and has never been finished.

This fight boils down to whether or not Lemos will be able to stuff Jandiroba’s takedowns. Keep it standing and Lemos will have a distinct advantage. Fail to do so and she’ll be dragged into Jandiroba’s world.

Having passed a great grappling test against Dern last time out, Lemos should be able to stay safe a pick Jandiroba apart en route to victory.

Prediction: Lemos by decision.

Best Bet: Lemos at 2.14.

Alternative Bet: Lemos by decision at 6.00.

Brad Tavares (2.36) v Jun Yong Park (1.61) (Middleweight)

How much tread is left on Tavares’ tyres? That’s the pressing question that’ll be answered in the co-main event. The Hawaiian is a 14-year UFC veteran and enters the contest at the age of 36 having lost two of his last three fights.

Tavares, whose record now stands at 20-9, may not have been an elite middleweight in his prime but he was one of the toughest, which saw him go the distance with 185-pound champion Dricus du Plessis in 2022.

Since that loss to South Africa’s fighting pride, though, his durability has waned as he was stopped by Bruno Silva and Gregory Rodrigues on either side of a decision win over former champion Chris Weidman. As a result, he finds himself as the underdog.

A high-level grappler, Park (17-6) had strung together a four-fight win streak that included a hat-trick of submissions over Joseph Holmes, Denis Tiuliulin and Albert Duraev before succumbing to Andre Muniz by split decision in his last fight.

Interestingly, “The Iron Turtle” has never lost consecutive bouts in his career, but I see that happening here. Tavares has excellent takedown defence, has never been submitted and only struggles against superior strikers. He’s a great underdog pick to keep the fight standing where, as the better striker, he’ll outpoint Park.

Prediction: Tavares by decision.

Best Bet: Tavares at 2.36.

Alternative Bet: Tavares by decision at 3.15.

Steve Garcia (1.70) v Seung Woo Choi (2.20) (Featherweight)

Leather and sparks will fly in this featherweight striking battle.

Garcia (15-5) has been on a tear, using his heavy hands, kicks and elbows to despatch his last three opponents by knockout to take his KO tally to 12. A savage southpaw, “Mean Machine” will march forward with malice and has a willing dance partner in Choi (11-6)

While not the most active fighter, Choi is all-action once he steps inside the Octagon. Like Garcia, he’s a talented Muay Thai striker but unlike his opponent, he’s not a power puncher and has found the going tough in recent years.

“Sting” did, however, snap a three-fight losing streak last time out against Jarno Errens and seeks to win successive bouts for the first time since 2021. Unfortunately for him, though, Garcia is exactly the type of bazooka-wielding striker he struggles against, which should see the American continue his hot streak.

Prediction: Garcia by knockout.

Best Bet: Garcia at 1.70.

Alternative Bet: Garcia by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.20.

Kurt Holobaugh (2.10) v Kaynan Kruschewsky (1.76) (Lightweight)

Lightweights who can’t afford to lose collide in an intriguing contest.

Holobaugh (20-8) earned a return to the world’s pre-eminent mixed martial arts promotion by winning season 31 of The Ultimate Fighter 31 last August. His win over Austin Hubbard in the final was his 10th by submission and showed how crafty he can be, however, he was unsuccessful off his back against Trey Ogden in March, losing a decision.

Kruschewsky (15-2), meanwhile, will want to show what he’s really about after his short-notice debut against fellow Brazilian Elves Brener at a catchweight of 165 pounds ended in a knockout loss. “Bahia” was on a seven-fight unbeaten streak before that and with a full training camp behind him this time around, he’s primed for a better performance.

The pair should cancel each other out in the grappling department, which means it should come down to striking, where Kruschewsky has the edge as the younger, faster and bigger man complete with a three-inch reach advantage.  

Prediction: Kruschewsky by knockout.

Best Bet: Kruschewsky at 1.76.

Alternative Bet: Kruschewsky by KO/TKO/DQ at 4.50.

Cody Durden (1.83) v Bruno Silva (2.00) (Flyweight)

Flyweights, each with a TKO win over South Africa’s JP Buys, battle it out.

Silva’s victory over Buys back in 2021 was the start of his current three-fight win streak, while Durden (16-5-1) won three more on the trot after his 2022 triumph over the Brakpan-born fighter before being halted by Tagir Ulanbekov last December.

Durden is a strong wrestler and the only ranked fighter on the card aside from the headliners, entering the clash at number 14 in the flyweight division. The taller man by three inches and set to benefit from a two-inch reach advantage, he’ll look to outmuscle the Brazilian. 

Silva, who enters with a record of 13-5-2, is the more fan-friendly fighter as he has a more aggressive mindset and a bit of flair. As a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, he’s most dangerous when he’s controlling things on the ground but is also dangerous off his back.

Durden will be playing with fire in this one. He’ll aim to grind out a win but by doing so, he’ll face submission threats. Four of his five losses have come by tap-out, so a quality grappler like Silva should be able to scramble, reverse positions and either sync in a submission or ride out a win.

Prediction: Silva by submission.

Best Bet: Silva at 2.00.

Alternative Bet: Silva by submission at 4.00.

Doo Ho Choi (2.40) v Bill Algeo (1.60) (Featherweight)

“The Korean Superboy” returns after nearly a year-and-a-half away eager to make up for lost time in the main card opener.

A kill-or-be-killed fighter, Choi (14-4-1) is a joy to watch with his flashy striking and heavy hands, which have earned him 11 knockouts. He’s only fought five times since 2016 due to injuries and mandatory military obligations and is winless in his last four fights, with his last outing against Kyle Nelson in February 2023 ending in a draw.

Algeo (18-8) also lost to Nelson in his last outing, with the March setback halting a two-fight win streak. “Senor Perfecto” is more technical and tactical than the brawling Choi, mixing crisp striking with timely takedowns and solid jiu-jitsu.

For him, it’s a case of weathering the early storm and implementing his balanced style to spoil Choi’s comeback.

Prediction: Algeo by decision.

Best Bet: Algeo at 1.60.

Alternative Bet: Algeo by decision.