UFC Fight Night: Ladd v Dumont Predictions

Aspen Ladd will look to capitalise on a golden opportunity as she steps up on short notice for a headlining bout against Norma Dumont at UFC Vegas 40 on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

The co-main event at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas features former heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski, a legend of the sport who steps back into the Octagon to take on rising prospect Carlos Felipe. 

Another veteran of the fight game, Jim Miller, will make history as he sets the record for the most fights in the promotion when he welcomes newcomer Erick Gonzalez to the UFC. 

The main card is all but guaranteed to start with a bang as middleweight marauders Julian Marquez and Jordan Wright go to war followed by a face-off between flyweight finishers Manon Fiorot and Mayra Bueno Silva.

????? ?? for #UFCVegas40 this Saturday ?

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— UFC (@ufc) October 13, 2021

MAIN CARD (from 1 AM Sunday SA time): 

Aspen Ladd (1.76) v Norma Dumont (2.10) (Featherweight)

This main event showdown is a prime example of how things can turn on a dime in the fight game. Ladd (9-1) was set to face Macy Chiasson in a bantamweight bout two weeks ago, but the clash was scrapped after the former failed to make weight. Dumont (6-1), meanwhile, was preparing to battle Holly Holm, however, the former champion was forced to withdraw due to injury last Thursday.  

Following her botched weight cut, Ladd moves up to featherweight for what will be both fighters’ first main event. The change in plans certainly suits the former much better than the latter. Instead of wallowing in the disappointment of missing weight and having her fight camp go to waste, she’s essentially been given an upgrade as she shoots to the top of the card. 

For Dumont, it’s a major change in opponent. She’s spent the past several weeks preparing to face one of the best pure strikers in the business; now, she’s up against a well-rounded juggernaut and will no longer enjoy the grappling advantage she was expected to have against Holm. On the flip side, Ladd was preparing for a complete competitor in Chiasson, so the switch didn’t alter her battle plans as drastically as it did Dumont’s. As a result, Ladd swoops in as the favourite.

Ranked third in the bantamweight division, Ladd returns after nearly two years away looking to remind the world that she’s a legitimate title contender. A great grappler driven by animalistic aggression and impressive punching power, she takes the fight to her foes and has seven stoppage wins (six knockouts and one submission).

Out of action since December 2019 with a major knee injury, rust could be an issue for Ladd, whereas Dumont has made considerable waves during the same period. The 31-year-old’s won two on the trot, the last of which came over former title challenger Felicia Spencer in her return to the featherweight division.

Dumont is effective in the submission sphere. Solid rather than spectacular, she has two wins by submission, the last coming outside of the UFC four years ago. Her capable striking has helped her to four decision wins, but with no punching power of substance, “The Immortal” will struggle to gain Ladd’s respect on the feet.

Ladd has looked unbeatable aside from the flash knockout she suffered at the hands of former champion Germaine de Randamie and being unburdened by brutal weight cutting, she’ll be stronger than ever. Dumont, herself, is a former bantamweight rather than a full-fledged featherweight, so she’s the ideal opponent for Ladd to make the leap 10 pounds north.  

It’ll be especially compelling when the clash hits the floor as Ladd has vicious ground-and-pound, which Dumont will look to counter with submissions. With her excellent top control, Ladd has never been submitted and with superior striking to go along with her grappling, she’ll make a triumphant return.

Prediction: Ladd via decision. Ladd on points is the most likely outcome, but a TKO is also in play. 

Best Bet: Ladd at 1.76. 

Alternative Bet: Ladd by KO/TKO/DQ/decision at 1.86.

Andrei Arlovski (2.00) v Carlos Felipe (1.83) (Heavyweight)

The co-headliner won’t be your typical heavyweight battle as these two haven’t secured finishes in quite some time. Former champion Arlovski (31-20-2NC) is a future Hall of Famer who showed in his last fight that he can still hang with some of the new generation giants.

At 42, his legendary fast hands and footwork have slowed, but he nevertheless outstruck favourite Chase Sherman to win on the judges’ scorecards in April. Indeed, “The Pitbull” isn’t as ferocious as he was in his heyday, with the last of his 17 knockouts coming in a classic one-round slugfest against Travis Browne in May 2015, but this is as good a match-up the icon’s going to get against an opponent who’s half his age.

Felipe (11-1) is riding a three-fight win streak, which is no small feat, but it’s important to note they came against fellow prospects in Yorgan de Castro, Justin Tafa and most recently, Jake Collier, in June. All three were on points, the last two by split decision, which for a pure striker, isn’t the most convincing way to climb the ladder.

Heading into his fifth fight in the UFC, the Brazilian’s yet to stop an opponent. The last of his six knockouts came back in May 2017 and I can’t see him end his dry spell against his toughest opponent to date. At six-foot, he’s the shorter man by three inches and I don’t see a way for him to overcome a two-inch reach disadvantage and the craftiness of the veteran.

Prediction: Arlovski via decision.

Best Bet: Arlovski at 2.00.

Alternative Bet: Arlovski by decision at 2.50.

Jim Miller (1.44) v Erick Gonzalez (2.85) (Lightweight)

Polar opposites as far as experience inside the Octagon is concerned, Miller (32-16 1NC) will set the record for the most fights in the UFC (38) while Gonzalez will enter the sport’s ultimate proving ground for the first time. While it’s his first dance in the UFC, Gonzalez is no rookie; he has a 14-5 record with nine finishes (eight knockouts and one submission) – a solid résumé that’ll be put to the ultimate test in this one.

Miller’s seen it all over the course of his unrivalled tenure in the world’s leading MMA promotion. A black belt in taekwondo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, the veteran more than has his bases covered but like he showed in his UFC debut against David Baron all the way back in 2008, it’s the latter he’s built his legacy on as he boasts 18 wins by submission.  

Ultra-tough, Miller’s only been knocked out twice, so unless Gonzalez pulls out something crazy, he’s not putting him down. Having been outpointed in his last two fights, it’s likely the 38-year-old will be on the wrong side of a decision again should it go the distance. Therefore, he’ll put extra effort into his grappling where I’m tipping him to hand his 29-year-old opponent his third loss by submission. 

Prediction: Miller via submission.

Best Bet: Miller by submission at 3.40.Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 2.30.

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Manon Fiorot (1.41) v Mayra Bueno Silva (2.95) (Flyweight)

A classic striker versus grappler battle. Fiorot (7-1) is one of the most prolific finishers in the flyweight division. Her combination of power and skill in the striking department has seen her claim all but one of her wins by knockout, including her last five straight. Such a savage streak is unheard of in women’s MMA and is why she’s known as “The Beast.”

Bueno Silva (7-1-1), on the other hand, is a submission expert, with five of her seven wins coming by tap out. Coming off a majority draw with Montana de la Rosa, “Sheetara” seeks to return to the win column but she’ll have to wait a bit longer. The Brazilian has proved to be hittable and against a fierce striker like Fiorot, that spells doom.

Prediction: Fiorot via knockout.

Best Bet: Fiorot by knockout at 2.50.

Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 2.00.

Julian Marquez (1.40) v Jordan Wright (2.00) (Middleweight)

The main card opener is the sure-fire Fight of the Night. These two middleweights don’t play, with both blood-thirsty bangers boasting a 100% finishing rate. Fireworks are guaranteed and the judges will be mere spectators. Marquez (9-2) has six knockouts to his name while his last three wins have all come by submission.

“The Cuban Missile Crisis” is a heavy-handed wild man. He’ll have the power advantage whereas Wright (12-1 1NC) is the more technical of the two. “The Beverly Hill Ninja” has seven knockouts and five submissions on his record, all but one of which materialised in the first half. It’s a big step up in competition for Wright and he’s set to fall short against a streaking opponent with significantly greater top-level experience. 

Prediction: Marquez via knockout.

Best Bet: Marquez by knockout at 2.80.

Alternative Bet: Marquez by KO/TKO/DQ/submission at 1.68.