UFC Fight Night: Kattar v Emmett Predictions

Closing in on title contention, power-punching featherweights Calvin Kattar and Josh Emmett will fight fire with fire in the main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night event in Austin, Texas, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

The co-headliner at the Moody Center on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time) is a clash of legends as Donald Cerrone battles Joe Lauzon. A second fight in the lightweight division will see Damir Ismagulov go toe-to-toe with Guram Kutateladze.

The middleweight division is also in focus with human highlight-reel Joaquin Buckley facing Albert Duraev and

Julian Marquez returns to take on Gregory Rodrigues, while Tim Means and Kevin Holland are set to thrill at welterweight.

MAIN CARD (from 1 AM Sunday SA time):

Calvin Kattar (1.40) v Josh Emmett (2.95) (Featherweight)

Ranked fourth and seventh respectively at 145 pounds, like-minded Kattar (23-5) and Emmett (17-2) are out to make a statement in the high-stakes headliner. 

Aggressive, tough-as-nails and two of the hardest hitters in the featherweight division, the title-chasing contenders will bite down on the mouthpiece and throw high-level heat in what’s set to be a brutal slugfest.

Emmett made a successful return to the Octagon in December, winning a decision over Dan Ige after an 18-month injury-enforced layoff. The triumphant comeback extended the 37-year-old’s win streak to four and earned him this opportunity to break into the top five 11 years into his career.

Kattar delivered a career-best performance in the first main event of 2022, pummeling Giga Chikadze over five rounds to snap the Georgian’s eight-fight win streak and bounce back from a tough loss to former champion Max Holloway 12 months prior. 

“The Boston Finisher” boasts 11 knockouts to Emmett’s six, with both pugilists having a pair of submission wins apiece. Kattar has brilliant boxing and a knack for landing wicked elbows, whereas Emmett has a big right hand and a wrestling background. 

Both are ultra-durable; Katter’s never been knocked out and showed superhuman heart against Holloway, while Emmett’s only been stopped by strikes once and pushed through the pain of a torn ACL to beat Shane Burgos back in 2020.

Given both men’s toughness, a finish is highly improbable. Should one surprisingly materialise, it would likely be in the later rounds due to accumulative damage. That means we’re set to see Emmett extended past three rounds for the first time inside the Octagon. Kattar, conversely, has gone the full five rounds in each of his last three fights, so he has a proven gas tank.

With his wrestling and prodigious power, Emmett’s never out of a fight and was the underdog in three of his last four, so he has a history of overcoming the odds. However, Kattar holds all the cards. Along with his main event experience, he’s the younger man by three years, considerably faster, crisper, has a two-inch reach advantage and excellent takedown defence (89%), hence I see him getting his hand raised by decision. 

Prediction: Kattar via decision.

Best Bet: Kattar at 1.40

Alternative Bets: Kattar by decision at 2.30 or fight to go the distance at 1.74.

Donald Cerrone (1.57) v Joe Lauzon (2.40) (Lightweight)

Legends collide in what should be an epic co-main event. Both are bonus machines who’ve produced highlights and been in bangers that’ll stand the test of time and while the low-key dream match comes at the end of their careers, the OG gunslingers promise to rock the house. 

Cerrone (36-16-2NC) has more wear and tear, to put it mildly, and is winless in his last six dating back to 2019, which is the last time Lauzon (28-15) fought in a winning effort against Jonathan Pierce that snapped a three-fight losing skid.

Why, then, is Cerrone the favourite? Because “Cowboy” has the grappling skills to negate Lauzon’s biggest strength – his jiu-jitsu – and he’s the superior striker. His whips don’t crack as hard as they used to, so he looks primed to pick up a decision win. 

Prediction: Cerrone via decision.

Best Bet: Cerrone at 1.57.

Alternative Bets: Cerrone by decision at 4.50. Cerrone is a notoriously slow starter and has melted under early blitzes on several occasions, so it’s worth considering the juicy options on Lauzon, from 2.40 outright, 6.00 by KO/TKO/DQ and 7.00 by first-round finish to 11.00 by first-round KO/TKO/DQ.

Tim Means (3.20) v Kevin Holland (1.34) (Welterweight)

Solid and fun to watch. That’s Means (32-12-1-1NC) in a nutshell. The veteran never broke into the upper echelons and is nearing the end of his career but at 38, he’s still a tricky test and heads into this contest on a three-fight win streak. 

Fellow striker Holland (22-7-1) has reached higher heights up a weight class. He skyrocketed into the middleweight top 10 in 2020 after a string of finishes, including knocking out former Strikeforce champion Jacare Souza, before running into problems and got back on track in a successful return to welterweight last time out.

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Holland’s setbacks stemmed from being shut down by bigger and better wrestlers. Means is neither, which presents “Big Mouth” aka “Trailblazer” a chance to do what he does best and with a six-inch reach advantage, he’ll make the most of it and clip the Dirty Bird’s wings.  

Prediction: Holland via knockout. 

Best Bet: Holland via KO/TKO/DQ at 3.00.

Alternative Bet: Fight to finish inside the distance at 1.95.

Joaquin Buckley (2.85) v Albert Duraev (1.42) (Middleweight)

A clash of styles. Buckley (14-4), at his best, is an electrifying striker. He produced one of the most spectacular knockouts in UFC history (watch below) back in 2020 but it’s since become clear that he’s a middle-of-the-road talent. Still, his explosive unpredictability makes him dangerous and a fighter you have to watch.

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Duraev (15-3) is dull by comparison but a man on the up. Another in a long line of Russian wrestling specialists, the 33-year-old defeated Roman Kopylov in his UFC debut last October to notch up his 10th consecutive win. He looks poised to ground Buckley and while a submission win is in play (he’s tapped out nine opponents), a decision is more likely.

Prediction: Duraev via decision.

Best Bet: Duraev by decision at 3.50.

Alternative Bets: Duraev at 1.42 or by submission at 3.00.

Damir Ismagulov (1.60) v Guram Kutateladze (2.35) (Lightweight)

This is an intriguing lightweight contest as we have two evenly-matched fighters with stellar records. The main difference is Ismagulov (23-1) has a better pedigree as a former M-1 champion and more Octagon experience. Oh, and he’s on a 15-fight win streak. 

Kutateladze (12-2) put himself on the map when he upset Mateusz Gamrot as a short-notice replacement in his UFC debut in October 2020 but hasn’t fought since. If they were to square off in a series of fights, they’d likely go back and forth, but the timing of this tilt clearly favours Ismagulov. 

Catching Kutateladze cold and riding a wave of momentum, Ismagulov stands to be sharper and should take it on the scorecards.

Prediction: Ismagulov via decision.

Best Bet: Ismagulov at 1.60.

Alternative Bet: Ismagulov by decision at 2.10.

Julian Marquez (2.50) v Gregory Rodrigues (1.52) (Middleweight)

These two middleweights don’t play. Marquez (9-2) has a 100% finish rate. A heavy-handed wild man, “The Cuban Missile Crisis” has six knockouts to his name while his last three wins have all come by submission.

Rodrigues (11-4) has iced all but two of his wins and will be hunting either a sixth KO or fifth submission victory. Marquez is ordinarily a live dog, but he’s battled with injuries over the last few years and had to pull out of his last two scheduled fights for undisclosed reasons.

“Robocop” has the skills to see out the early storm Marquez is sure to bring and is a safer option. At first thought, you wouldn’t expect this fight to go the distance, but Marquez has never been finished, so I see him hanging tough but coming up short on the scorecards.  

Prediction: Rodrigues via decision.

Best Bet: Rodrigues at 1.52.

Alternative Bet: Rodrigues by decision at 4.00.