UFC Fight Night: Kape v Almabayev Predictions

The co-headliner is a middleweight matchup between Cody Brundage and Julian Marquez, with lightweights Nasrat Haqparast and Esteban Ribovics facing off in the featured bout.

Plus, heavyweights Austen Lane and Mario Pinto slug it out and featherweights Hyder Amil and William Gomis go at it.

MAIN CARD (from Sunday, March 2, 2:00 AM SAST)

Manel Kape (1.44) v Asu Almabayev (2.70) (Flyweight)

This weekend’s headliner was originally set to be a flyweight title eliminator between No. 1-ranked Brandon Royval and No. 6-ranked Kape (20-7).

However, with the former forced to withdraw due to injury, No. 8-ranked Almabayev (21-2) has entered the fray. Almabayev had been slated to fight Allan Nascimento on the same card before being elevated to the main event.

It’s a big blow for Kape, who now needs to make a dangerous detour on his road to the title. Hailing from Angola, he’s won five of his last six fights and closed out 2024 with the dazzling destruction of Bruno Silva.

A former RIZIN champion, “Star Boy” is one of the rare knockout artists at 125 pounds with 12 KOs. He lands more than double the significant strikes per minute as Almabayev and is lightning on his feet, which he’ll have to utilise to keep his new grappling-based opponent at bay.

Almabayev (21-2) has flown under the radar since joining the UFC in 2023 as he’s anything but flashy. The native of Kazakhstan is a code five clinger who suffocates opponents with his wrestling and jiu-jitsu.

His might not be the most fan-friendly style but it’s proved mighty effective as he’s 4-0 inside the Octagon and on an impressive 17-fight win streak overall dating back to 2017.

He made a good first impression when he submitted Ode Osbourne in his UFC debut, his ninth tapout victory, and won his last three by decision. Most recently, “Zulfikar” outworked Matheus Nicolau last October.

This bout boils down to whether Kape can keep the fight standing. His lone loss in the past four years came to grappler Muhammad Mokaev, who controlled and frustrated him last July.

Based on that fight, Almabayev is a bad stylistic matchup for him and a high-value underdog to grind out a win.

Prediction: Almabayev by decision.
Best Bet: Almabayev at 2.70.
Alternative Bet: Almabayev by decision at 4.00.

Cody Brundage (2.15) v Julian Marquez (1.66) (Middleweight)

Expert fireworks in the co-main event as both men are dangerous and have an air of desperation to them to get back in the win column.

Brundage (10-6) is a live dog for multiple reasons. He has a huge advantage in the wrestling department, he’s four years younger than his opponent and he’s had a full training camp.

Marquez (9-5), on the other hand, is a short-notice replacement for the recent winner of The Ultimate Fighter Ryan Loder. A heavy-handed brawler, his conditioning has always been an issue, so the fact that he hasn’t had a full training camp should be concerning for his backers.

Known as “The Cuban Missile Crisis”, he always swings for the fences and all but one of his seven fights inside the Octagon has finished inside the distance. Thus, he’ll be in kill-or-be-killed mode, knowing he’s bound to lose the cardio battle.

This bout is all about surviving the early storm and turning the tables from there for Brundage, which is what I’m backing him to do to condemn Marquez to a fourth straight defeat.

Prediction: Brundage by knockout.
Best Bet: Brundage by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.50.
Alternative Bet: Brundage at 2.15.

Nasrat Haqparast (3.25) v Esteban Ribovics (1.33) (Lightweight)

Lightweights with plenty of momentum meet in the featured bout.

As a technically sound southpaw, Haqparast (17-5) has been a tricky puzzle to solve at 155 pounds. His striking is crisp and his movement clever. The 29-year-old is on a four-fight win streak and like his opponent, is moving closer to a place in the top 15.

The winner of three straight since dropping his promotional debut, Ribovics (14-1) has been nothing but exciting in the UFC. Dangerous and dynamic, “El Gringo” delivered one of the best knockouts of 2024 against Terrance McKinney and followed it up by edging Daniel Zellhuber in an absolute war last time out.

In what’s a fascinating clash of fighting philosophies, the aggression and explosiveness of Ribovics should win out.

Prediction: Ribovics by knockout.
Best Bet: Ribovics by KO/TKO/DQ at 4.00.
Alternative Bet: Fight to finish inside the distance at 2.40.

Austen Lane (4.33) v Mario Pinto (1.20) (Heavyweight)

A promise-filled rookie, Pinto looks to impress and keep his undefeated record intact in his UFC debut.

Just 26, Pinto has a perfect record of 9-0 with six finishes (five knockouts and one submission) and punched his ticket to the big time with a first-round knockout of Lucas Camacho on Dana White’s Contender Series.

As a former NFL star, Lane (13-5) is late to the mixed martial arts party. A finisher by nature (11 knockouts and one submission), it took him a couple of tries but he registered his first UFC win in his last outing when he leaned on his gridiron strengths to take and hold down one-dimensional kickboxer Robelis Despaigne for a decision victory.

This will be a far tougher outing for the 37-year-old Lane against a young and hungry kid who can crack and wrestle. In a duel destined to end with a knockout, expect Pinto’s speed to propel him to a successful promotional debut.  

Prediction: Pinto by knockout.
Best Bet: Pinto by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.72.
Alternative Bet: Under 1.5 rounds at 1.83.

Hyder Amil (2.55) v William Gomis (1.48) (Featherweight)

Something has to give when these two featherweights on remarkable runs meet in the main card opener.

Sporting a flawless 10-0 record with seven finishes (six knockouts and one submission), Amil is an all-action striker who throws a lot of volume, a fan-friendly style that’s earned him the nickname “The Hurricane.”

If he’s busy and dangerous on the feet and unbeaten, why is he the underdog, you might ask? That’s because Gomis (14-2) is younger yet more experienced and is on a 12-fight win streak in his own right.

“Jaguar” has pounced on each of the four previous opportunities he’s had inside the Octagon, with his last loss coming more than seven years ago.

His striking and overall game are more refined than his opponent’s and with a three-inch reach advantage on top of that, Gomis should get it done.

Prediction: Gomis by decision.
Best Bet: Gomis by decision at 1.90.
Alternative Bet: Gomis at 1.48.