UFC Fight Night: Holloway v Allen Predictions

Former featherweight champion Max Holloway takes on the division’s hottest rising star Arnold Allen in a pivotal main event clash at UFC Kansas City on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

The co-headliner at the T-Mobile Center is another showdown at 145 pounds with Edson Barboza battling Billy Quarantillo.

The spotlight also shines on the light heavyweight division with Dustin Jacoby meeting unbeaten Azamat Murzakanov and Tanner Boser taking on Ion Cutelaba.

Plus, Pedro Munhoz collides with Chris Gutierrez at bantamweight and the legendary Clay Guida goes toe-to-toe with Rafa Garcia at lightweight.

MAIN CARD (from 2:30 AM Sunday SA time):

Max Holloway (1.55) v Arnold Allen (2.55) (Featherweight)

The past and present of the 145-pound division meets the future head-on in this highly anticipated five-round main event. 

Holloway (23-7) is not only a former champion but is also in the conversation when it comes to the greatest featherweight of all time. “Blessed” is a striking machine unlike any other in terms of accuracy and output. He pushes a relentless pace that sees him melt those who can’t keep up, which has earned him 10 knockouts.  

Allen (19-1) has been flawless inside the Octagon. Living up to his “Almighty” nickname, the Brit is unbeaten since making his UFC debut back in 2015. A powerful and athletic striker, he stopped Dan Hooker and Calvin Kattar in his last two fights to improve his winning streak to 10 and move up to fourth in the rankings, two behind Holloway. 

Holloway finds himself between a rock and a hard place at present. He’s only lost to one man at 145 pounds in the last nine years, that being champion Alexander Volkanovski. His decision loss last time out was his third to “The Great”, leaving him in a bind as long as the Australian remains on the throne. 

The fighting pride of Hawaii has turned back many a surging rising star including Kattar, Brian Ortega and current interim titleholder Yair Rodriguez. He’s the gold standard as opposed to the gatekeeper and has a chip on his shoulder whenever he crosses paths with a young contender looking to use him as a springboard to a title shot.   

Holloway’s a scrapper, a fighter’s fighter who’s as tough as he is tireless. While he’s never been knocked out, he’s been in wars over the years and took quite the beating in the trilogy bout against Volkanovski last July. The layoff since then would’ve done him wonders, but one has to wonder how much the legendary warrior has left. 

Though just two years younger than Holloway, Allen has far less combat mileage on him and represents a new breed of fighter. The 29-year-old, who has seven knockouts and four submission wins to his name, is more of an athlete and will have a strength and power advantage. 

Both combatants seldom shoot for takedowns, so this is set to be a highly-skilled and entertaining striking duel and will in all likelihood go the distance. Of all the young contenders who’ve tried, Allen has the best chance to beat the former champion. 

However, the one ingredient he lacks is five-round experience. Holloway, on the other hand, has mastered the pacing of a 25-minute fight, having gone the distance in his last seven fights whereas Allen has never been past three rounds. That should be the key advantage that sees Holloway get his hand raised.

Prediction: Holloway by decision.

Best Bet: Holloway by decision at 2.65.

Alternative Bets: Holloway at 1.55 or fight to go the distance at 1.74.

Edson Barboza (2.50) v Billy Quarantillo (1.57) (Featherweight)

Fireworks will go off in the co-headliner, which promises to be high on volume and violence.  

Barboza (22-11) is one of the greatest strikers in UFC history, a taekwondo black belt with a jaw-dropping reel of knockouts that stands at 13. His boxing is crisp but it’s his wide array of kicks that makes him a feared buzzsaw. They’re lightning-quick with no telegraphing and absolutely deadly, whether to the legs, mid-section or head.  

Quarantillo (17-4 with eight knockouts and five submissions) is less technical and more of a brawler. He doesn’t mind eating a few shots to give a few but his durability will be tested in this fight. 

“Billy Q” is probably the better mixed martial artist but he can’t help getting into wars. His adrenaline takes over and sees him abandon strategy for a good old-fashioned scrap, which plays into Barboza’s hands. 

The veteran has more power and tools on the feet, a combination that makes him a high-value underdog in what’ll be a striking battle. 

Prediction: Barboza by knockout.

Best Bet: Barboza at 2.50.

Alternative Bet: Barboza by KO/TKO/DQ by 4.75.

Dustin Jacoby (1.60) v Azamat Murzakanov (2.40) (Light Heavyweight)

There’s always an added level of intrigue when a fighter boasts an undefeated record like Murzakanov does. The Russian striker is a perfect 12-0 but is relatively new to the UFC with just two appearances inside the Octagon, both of which he won by third-round knockout to move his KO tally up to nine. 

As an Octagon veteran, Jacoby (18-6-1) is the ideal test to see exactly where Murzakanov truly is as far as talent and development are concerned. Ranked 13th, “The Hanyak” is a crafty, world-class kickboxer with 11 knockouts and is favoured to end his opponent’s unbeaten run. 

As this also promises to be a stand-up battle, the edge goes to seasoned kickboxer and proven UFC campaigner Jacoby, especially given he has a four-and-a-half-inch reach advantage. A knockout isn’t out of the question, but it’s more likely to be a technical fight that goes to the judges’ scorecards. 

Prediction: Jacoby by decision.

Best Bet: Jacoby at 1.60.

Alternative Bet: Jacoby by decision at 2.80.

Tanner Boser (2.05) v Ion Cutelaba (1.80) (Light Heavyweight)

This was a pick ‘em at 1.90 before the line moved in Cutelaba’s favour at the start of fight week. Boser’s starting a new chapter at 205 pounds while Cutelaba’s fighting to save his job. 

Boser, who has a record of 20-9-1, has fought at heavyweight for the last decade despite being somewhat undersized. At 6’2″, he’s just an inch taller than Cutelaba and probably should have fought at light heavyweight all along.

His iron chin (he’s never been knocked out inside the Octagon and went the distance with former champions Andrei Arlovski and ex-interim titleholder Cyril Gane) and power (11 knockouts) have allowed the Canadian to make a solid living at heavyweight but after a split-decision loss to Rodrigo Nascimento last September, he’s finally decided to drop down. 

Cutelaba, whose record stands at 16-9-1, is on a three-fight losing skid (all by stoppage) and has won just one of his last seven fights. “The Hulk” is aggressive, often to a fault, has wicked punching power (12 knockouts) and good wrestling, if he decides to employ it. 

Having said that, Cutelaba has a fragile chin and tends to gas early in fights, so I’m backing “The Bulldozer” to make a successful return to 205.

Prediction: Boser by knockout. 

Best Bet: Boser at 2.05.

Alternative Bet: Boser by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.40.

Pedro Munhoz (2.75) v Chris Gutierrez (1.48) (Bantamweight)

This battle of top 15 bantamweights will be action-packed. Thirteenth-ranked Gutierrez (19-3-2) enters with momentum on his side. A smooth switch hitter, he’s unbeaten in his last eight and fresh off scoring the biggest win of his career when he retired former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar with a brutal knee last November (his ninth knockout).

Munhoz (19-7), who lost to Edgar in 2020, has had a frustrating last few years. He came out on the wrong side of both his bouts in 2021 and his only fight last year ended in a no-decision after an accidental eye poke by Sean O’Malley left him unable to continue. 

Still ranked ninth, Munhoz will be a good test for “El Guapo”. He’s a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with plenty of elite-level experience, eight submissions and five knockouts. At 36, though, he’s slowed down just enough for the likes of O’Malley and Gutierrez to beat him to the punch. 

He still has the iron chin and unbreakable will that have made him unfinishable in his 15-year career, so Gutierrez will have to be satisfied with a decision victory.

Prediction: Gutierrez by decision.

Best Bet: Gutierrez by decision at 2.10.

Alternative Bet: Gutierrez at 1.48.

Clay Guida (3.10) v Rafa Garcia (1.40) (Lightweight)

At 41 and starting his 17th year in the UFC, Guida (38-22) is still a tricky test for young and older at 155 pounds. He’s 6-5 since moving back to lightweight in 2017 and is coming off a split-decision win over Scott Holtzman in December.  

“The Carpenter” is still a fireball of kinetic energy who takes the fight to his opponent for the full 15 minutes. His fitness has held up remarkably well, which still sees him mix up everything at a high volume, but he’s not as fast as he was in his prime. 

Garcia (15-3) is a prospect looking for a signature win and Guida’s that guy. The 28-year-old will be significantly faster than his legendary foe and while he has no real knockout power to speak of, he has good combinations and, crucially, the wrestling to match that of Guida. 

Given this and his never-say-die attitude, the faster “Gifted” looks set to outpoint Guida in a main card opener destined to go the distance.

Prediction: Garcia by decision. 

Best Bet: Garcia by decision at 2.10.

Alternative Bet: Garcia at 1.40.

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.