UFC Fight Night: Hernandez v Pereira Predictions

Something has to give when surging middleweight contenders Anthony Hernandez and Michel Pereira meet in the main event of UFC Vegas 99 on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The co-headliner at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas is a battle of top-15 bantamweights as Rob Font faces Kyler Phillips, while a second fight at 135 pounds pits Brady Hiestand against Jake Hadley.

The main card also features a flyweight scrap, with Charles Johnson and Sumudaerji squaring off, and a featherweight contest, with Darren Elkins and Daniel Pineda throwing down.

MAIN CARD (from 1 AM Sunday SA time):

Anthony Hernandez (1.74) v Michel Pereira (2.14) (Middleweight)

Top-15 middleweights will look to seize the moment when they face off in their first headlining assignments in the UFC.

Both men have put in good work to earn this opportunity. Hernandez (12-2-1 NC) has won his past five bouts and has submitted his last three opponents, forcing Marc-Andre Barriault, Edmen Shahbazyan, and Roman Kopylov to tap out.

Pereira (31-11-1 NC), meanwhile, is riding an eight-fight winning streak, capped off by a trio of first-round finishes over Andre Petroski, Michal Oleksiejczuk, and Ihor Potieria since moving up to 185 pounds from welterweight.

A former LFA middleweight champion, Hernandez is an elite grappler who’s claimed eight of his 12 wins by submission and worked his way up to 13th in the rankings, one place above Pereira.

“Fluffy” is a calculated fighter who pushes a high pace while keeping himself in advantageous positions. His conditioning is top notch, and he has several ways to take an opponent to the ground, which is his world.

Pereira has a big, strong guy and no slouch when it comes to grappling, so he’s not easy to take down. He’ll want to keep it standing where he’s not only the better and more powerful striker but also more athletic.

The dynamic “Demolidor” was once the UFC’s craziest wild man. He would do backflips mid-fight and springboard off the Octagon fence to try to catch his opponent and entertain the crowd. It earned him a ton of fans, but the energy-sapping style had mixed results and was always only going to take him so far.

Since pulling back on the unnecessary big actions and showboating, he’s been a consistent rising force. He’s still uber-explosive and unpredictable but more sensible with his energy exertion.

That said, it remains to be seen if the muscle-bound Brazilian has the gas tank to go the full five rounds in needed, having exclusively fought three-rounders up to now. He’s last three fights last under four minutes combined, which is great if he can keep it up, but if he can’t, it means he hasn’t had any real time inside the Octagon since 2022.

Hernandez proved he can go 25 hard minutes when he beat Brendan Allen, currently ranked eighth, for the vacant LFA title back in 2018 and he’ll know the longer the fight goes, the more it suits him. Not only don’t I trust Pereira’s gas tank, but he’s fight IQ also isn’t the highest.

He is tough, though, having only been finished two in his near 50-fight career. I do think Hernandez has the jiu-jitsu skills to submit him, however, it’s more likely that he’ll weather the early storm and wear on Pereira en route to a decision win.

Prediction: Hernandez by decision.  

Best Bet: Hernandez by decision at 7.50.

Alternative Bet: Hernandez at 1.74 or by submission at 2.65.

Rob Font (4.30) v Kyler Phillips (1.23) (Bantamweight)

Ranked bantamweights on opposite trajectories go toe-to-toe in the co-main event.

Ever-game veteran Font (20-8) has lost two in a row and four of his last five fights to slip to 10th in the rankings. It must be said he’s fought nothing but top competition, with his recent losses coming to Jose Aldo, Marlon Vera, Cory Sandhagen and Deiveson Figueiredo and his last win over Adrian Yanez.

Now coming up against a lower-ranked contender, it’s vital for the 37-year-old to turn the tide and preserve his place in the top 10. Font has a well-rounded skillset and seasoned craftiness, all of which he uses behind a piston-like jab, but he isn’t as sharp as he was in his prime.

Phillips (12-2) has quietly climbed up the rankings to No. 12 and has been near-perfect since joining the UFC in 2020. He’s 6-1 in the promotion and on a three-fight win streak. “The Matrix” is a highly skilled and unpredictable striker but has also shown improvements in his grappling game. This, however, promises to be a stand-up battle.

As the younger man by eight years who’s entering his prime, 29-year-old Phillips’ speed and output should see him outwork the super durable Font to pick up a decision win. 

Prediction: Phillips by decision.  

Best Bet: Phillips by decision at 1.74.

Charles Johnson (1.43) v Sumudaerji (2.90) (Flyweight)

Johnson, who shares an identical 16-6 record with his opponent, looks to keep the good times going as he seeks to earn his fourth win of the year in the featured bout.

After decision wins over Azat Maksum and Jake Hadley, “Inner G” knocked out Josh Van in July and has no intension of slowing down. Much of his success in 2024 can be put down to his vastly improved takedown defence, which has allowed him to be more confident and effective on the feet.

Whereas Johnson is one of the most active fighters on the roster, Sumudaerji (16-6) has only fought three times since 2021 and makes his first appearance of the year looking to get back on track after suffering successive submission losses, the most recent of which came against Tim Elliott last December.

At his best, “The Tibetan Eagle” is a free-flowing striker, one who glides across the Octagon with grace and boasts 13 knockouts. The secret to beating the dangerous Chinese southpaw is out of the bag and Johnson would thus be wise to incorporate more wrestling into his gameplan. 

By mixing things up, he’ll dictate terms and continue his winning ways.

Prediction: Johnson by decision. 

Best Bet: Johnson by decision at 2.20.

Alternative Bet: Johnson at 1.43.

Brady Hiestand (1.64) v Jake Hadley (2.30) (Bantamweight)

A finalist of Season 29 of The Ultimate Fighter, Hiestand (8-2) hopes to stay undefeated in the UFC when he takes on the man known as “White Kong.”

Hiestand is 3-0 in the promotion and has showcased his versatility by winning his debut against Fernando Garcia by decision, his next fight against Danaa Batgerel by TKO and his most recent outing against Garrett Armfield by submission.

His grappling and condition, along with his scrambling ability to get out of trouble, are what’s made him so successful in this early stage of his Octagon career. 

Hate it or love it, the underdogs on top! 😤👊🏻 pic.twitter.com/8gm8PmPwaP

— Brady Hiestand (@bradyHiestand1) April 26, 2023

Hadley’s decent in all departments but he does slow down in the latter stages of a fight, whereas “Bam Bam” gets stronger the longer the fight goes. Thus, I see Hiestand getting his hand raised, either with a late finish or on the scorecards.

Hadley’s decent in all departments but he does slow down in the latter stages of a fight, whereas “Bam Bam” gets stronger the longer the fight goes. Thus, I see Hiestand getting his hand raised, either with a late finish or on the scorecards.

Prediction: Hiestand by TKO.

Best Bet: Hiestand to win.

Alternative Bet: Hiestand by decision.

Darren Elkins (1.98) v Daniel Pineda (1.89) (Featherweight)

Featherweight veterans who are fearless and fond of violence will get the main card underway.

Known as “The Damage”, both for his ability to dish out and take punishment, Elkins (28-11) is a die-hard brawler who’s shed more blood, sweat and tears than most in the UFC.

Still trucking along at the age of 40, this will be his 40th fight and his 29th appearance inside the Octagon. The zombie-like American is 4-2 in his last six fights and showed last time out that she still has what it takes to get the job done with a third-round submission win over TJ Brown last October.

Pineda (28-16) is a tenacious stalwart in his own right. At 39, he’ll make the walk for his 45th scrap. Unlike Elkins, the years and battles have caught up to “The Pit”, who’s been on the losing side in his last two outings.

He’s not to be taken lightly, though, as he still remarkably boasts a 100% finish rate (nine knockouts and 19 submissions), meaning this has the makings of a barnburner.

Elkins has a bit more left in the tank and as long as he’s sharpened up his takedown defence, he should prevail.

Prediction: Elkins by decision.

Best Bet: Elkins at 1.98.

Alternative Bet: Elkins by decision at 4.50.