UFC Fight Night: Hall v Strickland Predictions

Something has to give when surging middleweights Uriah Hall and Sean Strickland square off in the main event of UFC Vegas 33 on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

The pair of top-15 185-pounders headline a cursed card that had to be overhauled following two bout cancellations on Tuesday. A heavyweight showdown between Shamil Abdurakhimov and Chris Daukaus, which was set to be the co-main event at the UFC APEX, fell through as the former was forced to withdraw. 

The middleweight match-up between Sam Alvey and Roman Kopylov was also cancelled due to the Russian running into visa issues. As a result, bantamweights Kyung Ho Kang and Rani Yahya have been bumped up to the co-feature slot and a welterweight bout between Niklas Stolze and Jared Gooden has been elevated to the main card, along with a featherweight fight between Ryan Benoit and Zarrukh Adashev.

Plus, Cheyanne Buys – the wife of South African MMA star JP Buys – battles Gloria de Paula in a strawweight scrap while Bryan Barberena and Jason Witt open the main card in what should be a cracking welterweight clash.

This Saturday!@UriahHallMMA vs @SStricklandMMA at #UFCVegas33 pic.twitter.com/ZLY14u3KYB

— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) July 26, 2021

MAIN CARD (from 3 AM Sunday SA time):

Uriah Hall (2.80) v Sean Strickland (1.45) (Middleweight)

A meeting of middleweights on career-best hot streaks, one looking to cement his place in the top 10 and the other determined to break into it. 

Ninth-ranked Hall (17-9) is finally starting to live up to the potential he showed on The Ultimate Fighter Season 17 back in 2013. He looked like a future champion back then, delivering one devastating knockout after the other. The dynamic striker was the heavy favourite going into the final, but it was Kelvin Gastelum who prevailed and exposed Hall’s wrestling weakness. 

“Prime Time” has improved his takedown defence since then, but grappling remains the clearest path to victory for his foes. The problem for his opponents, though, is they have to walk through fire on that path and many have fallen victim to his cavalcade of fight-fishing strikes in their attempts to shoot in. All in all, 13 of Hall’s 17 wins are by knockout.

Eleventh-ranked Strickland (23-3-1NC) is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with four submission victories. He’ll have the advantage on the ground but getting there is up in the air as he only has a 57% takedown success rate. The veteran won’t mind striking with Hall; he’s notched up 10 knockouts, but engaging in a kickboxing battle against a superior striker who has a three-and-a-half-inch reach advantage is ill-advised. 

Both men are on a four-fight win streak. Hall’s run has been the more impressive of the two, both in terms of style points (three KOs) and star power, with his two latest wins coming over former champions. He stopped the legendary Anderson Silva in a main event showcase before checking a kick that resulting in Chris Weidman snapping his leg.

“Tarzan” has fought lesser opponents but his well-roundedness and experience of mixing things up are probably why the odds-makers have him as the favourite. In the end, it comes down to who’ll be able to impose their game plan on the other. Hall, more than most, is a confident fighter and he’s never flown higher than he is now. 

I believe the Jamaican will be able to stuff most of Strickland’s takedown attempts and ultimately hit the kill shot or outpoint him. That he’s the underdog is the cherry on top in my eyes. 

Prediction: Hall. 

Best Bet: Hall at 2.80. 

Alternative Bet(s): Hall by KO/TKO/DQ at 4.25 or decision at 7.00. 

Kyung Ho Kang (1.74) v Rani Yahya (2.15) (Bantamweight)

When two elite grapplers go head-to-head inside the Octagon, it usually ends up being a stand-up battle. Their takedown and submission prowess are so similar that they often cancel each other out. Kang (17-8) has a significant leg up in the striking department, both in power and technique, plus he’ll have a four-inch reach advantage.

“Mr Perfect” hasn’t fought since 2019, though, which narrows the odds, but he’s been really good in the UFC, winning six of eight including his last three on the bounce. Yahya (27-10-1) tapped out Ray Rodriguez in his last fight in March. It was the Brazilian’s 21st win by submission.

If that doesn’t tell you everything you need to know about what type of fighter he is and how he’s likely to win – if he’s able to pull off an upset – he doesn’t have a single knockout in his 37-fight career. Bank on Kang, most likely by decision.

Prediction: Kang via decision.

Best Bet: Kang at 1.74.

Alternative Bet(s): Kang by decision at 2.50 or Yahya by submission at 3.50.

Cheyanne Buys (1.60) v Gloria de Paula (2.45) (Strawweight)

Graduates of Dana White’s Contender Series seeking to bounce back from unsuccessful UFC debuts in March. Buys (5-2), who made her promotional bow on the same night as her South African husband and former two-division EFC champion JP Buys, will want to showcase her striking after she was shut down by Montserrat Ruiz, who took her down with her trademark head-and-arm throw and ground out a ground-dominated decision.

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“The Warrior Princess” has a willing dance partner this time around in De Paula (5-3), a Brazilian striker with serious pop. “Glorinha” has the upper hand in punching power, which has seen her produce three knockouts, while Buys (one knockout and four decision wins) is the more layered striker. With more strings to her bow, I’m backing Buys.  

Prediction: Buys via decision. 

Best Bet: Buys at 1.60.

Alternative Bet: Buys by decision at 1.95.

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Niklas Stolze (1.50) v Jared Gooden (2.70) (Welterweight)

Stolze (12-4) is one of the athletes who was thrown a fight-week curveball with his original opponent Mounir Lazziz forced out of the fight on Tuesday due to visa problems. Enter Gooden (17-6), who like Stolze, is hunting his first UFC win. “NiteTrain” is 0-2 inside the Octagon, while Stolze lost his promotional debut. It’s an intriguing dance of the desperate.

Stolze is a kickboxer with solid submissions and nine stoppage wins (four by knockout and five by tap out). The brash Gooden is well-versed and dangerous as well, with seven knockouts and six submission victories. In an evenly-matched affair like this, the fact that Stolze had a full camp gives him a leg up on his short-notice opponent and should see him pick up the win. 

Prediction: Stolze via decision.

Best Bet: Stolze via decision.

Alternative Bet: Stolze via KO/TKO/DQ.

Ryan Benoit (1.74) v Zarrukh Adashev (2.15) (Flyweight)

These two flyweight finishers are set to continue the excitement that the main card opener’s expected to deliver. A look at their records gives you a good indication of who you should put your money on. Benoit is 10-7, while Adashev is an average 3-3.

Few flyweights have the punching power Benoit possesses. All but one of his wins are by finish, eight of them being by knockout. Uzbekistan southpaw Adashev has some pop too, which has earned his two knockouts, but he’s winless in the UFC. I can’t see him upsetting “Baby Face”, who will have a three-and-a-half inch reach advantage, holds a win over Sergio Pettis and dropped and nearly beat the current champion, Brandon Moreno, back in 2016. 

Prediction: Benoit via knockout.

Best Bet: Benoit by knockout at 5.00.

Alternative Bet: Benoit at 1.74.

Bryan Barberena (1.37) v Jason Witt (3.15) (Welterweight)

The dishonour of being the biggest dog of the card goes to Witt (18-7). “The Vanilla Gorilla” has struggled in the UFC jungle, going 1-2, and was knocked out in just 16 seconds by Matthew Semelsberger in March. He has solid jiu-jitsu, which has earned him eight submission wins, but Barberena (15-7) is no slouch on the ground either.

“Bam Bam” has a clear advantage on the feet, having chalked up 10 knockouts, and has momentum on his side as well following his win over Anthony Ivy last September. He’s a bad stylistic match-up for Witt, whose defensive deficiencies have seen him get knocked out in five of his seven losses, so he’s likely to find himself looking up at the lights again.

Prediction: Barberena via knockout.

Best Bet: Barberena by knockout at 2.20.

Alternative Bet(s): Barberena by first-round finish at 3.00 or second-round finish at 5.50.