UFC Fight Night: Gane v Volkov Predictions

A titanic tilt with title implications headlines UFC Vegas 30 on Saturday night as top-five heavyweights Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov throw down, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

The co-main event at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas is another clash at 265 pounds (120kg) with ex-interim light heavyweight title challenger Ovince Saint Preux moving up to take on Tanner Boser, while Nigeria’s Kennedy Nzechukwu returns to the Octagon to do battle with Danilo Marques in the 205-pound (93kg) division. 

Also facing off are featherweight finishers Andre Fili and Daniel Pineda, wily welterweight veteran Tim Means and Nicolas Dalby and exciting lightweights Renato Moicano and Jai Herbert.

Closing out June in a BIG way ?

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— UFC (@ufc) June 20, 2021

MAIN CARD (from 10 PM Saturday SA time):

Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov (Heavyweight)

This won’t be your typical heavyweight slugfest. Instead, expect a technical chess match as both behemoths are high-level strikers. Their attacks are calculated and crisp, and they carry crushing power. It’ll be a delicate dance, one with grave consequences and great rewards, with the winner possibly positioning himself for a title fight against the winner of the Francis Ngannou-Derrick Lewis showdown expected to take place later this year. 

Third-ranked Gane enters with a flawless 8-0 record, five of which came inside the Octagon. He has six finishes, evenly split between knockouts and submissions, but was content with cruising to a decision victory over Jairzinho Rozenstruik in February. The lacklustre main event win didn’t impress UFC President, Dana White but it highlighted two of the Frenchman’s lesser-known weapons – a spear-like jab and an effective takedown. 

For an inexperienced fighter like “Bon Gamin”, getting a full 25 minutes of Octagon time under his belt against a fellow top contender is invaluable and as it turns out, it came at the perfect time ahead of his meeting against a seasoned veteran in Volkov (33-8).

Fifth-ranked “Drago” is a former M-1 and Bellator champion and has just two losses in the UFC, being knocked out by Lewis 11 seconds before he would’ve won a clear-cut decision and being out grappled by Curtis Blaydes. He knocked out Walt Harris and the legendary Alistair Overeem in his last two fights to take his KO tally to 22, while he also has three wins by submission. 

At 6’7″, Volkov is three inches taller than Gane and knows how to maximise that size advantage. Gane, in turn, will try to latch onto one of the Russian’s long limbs and force him to tap out. Volkov not only has the skills to go toe-to-toe with Gane but as the vastly more experienced fighter, he’s forgotten more about fighting than Gane knows at this stage, which makes him a great underdog bet at 2.30.

Prediction: Volkov via decision. 

Best Bet: Volkov at 2.30.

Alternative Bet: Volkov by decision at 4.75.

Tanner Boser v Ovince Saint Preux (Heavyweight)

Saint Preux (25-14) has agreed to a big shift in opponents. He was meant to fight Maxim Grishin at light heavyweight but Grishin was forced to withdraw due to Visa issues last Thursday. Coming off a TKO loss to Jamahal Hill in December, the ever-game “OSP” wasn’t going to delay his return to the Octagon any longer and thus signed to move up a weight class to face Boser (19-8-1).

The former interim light heavyweight title challenger has been inconsistent in the last couple of years, alternating between wins and losses in his last five fights, and his only fight at heavyweight saw him succumb to Ben Rothwell by split decision last May. Boser is mainly a striker with 10 KOs to his name but has lost two in a row by decision, the most recent to Ilir Latifi just over two weeks ago. 

He’ll probably look to swarm and overwhelm the natural 205-pounder (93kg), whereas Saint Preux will seek to make the most of his four-and-a-half-inch reach advantage. With just about half of his wins coming by knockout (12), “OSP” won’t shy away from a striking battle but it’s worth reiterating that this is a heavyweight fight, where the chins are stronger and the punches more devastating. 

Grounding the heavier man won’t be an easy feat, but Saint Preux has a significant advantage when it comes to jiu-jitsu. He’s a master of the Von Flue choke and has eight submission wins in all, so he might look to put “The Bulldozer” on his back. As the better grappler and faster and more athletic striker, I’m going with Saint Preux. 

Prediction: Saint Preux via decision.

Best Bet: Saint Preux at 2.40.

Alternative Bet: Saint Preux by submission/decision at 2.80.

Danilo Marques v Kennedy Nzechukwu (Light Heavyweight)

Another short notice switch-around as Nzechukwu (8-1) replaces Ed Herman. It’s a tricky opponent change for Marques (11-2) as Herman, 40, is best known for his submission skills while Nzechukwu’s a striker who’s won five of his eight fights by knockout. What’s more, the Nigerian – who’s won his last two bouts – is a southpaw and at 29, he’s much faster and more dynamic than Herman.   

Marques, 35, is extremely well-rounded. He can handle himself on the feet and has scored four KOs, but it’s his jiu-jitsu that poses the most problems for his opponents. The Brazilian’s submission win over Mike Rodriguez in February was his fourth in a row and fifth by submission. Nzechukwu’s only loss came by submission to Paul Craig and Marques has the skills to do the same. Given his high-level grappling and the fact that he’s had a full fight camp, my money’s on a third straight underdog in Marques.   

Prediction: Marques via decision.

Best Bet: Marques at 2.00.

Alternative Bet: Marques by submission/decision at 2.30. 

Andre Fili v Daniel Pineda (Featherweight)

Two exciting featherweights looking to rebound, this should be a thriller. Fili (21-8) fell to Bryce Mitchell by decision last October, while Pineda (27-14) was knocked out by Cub Swanson last December. The loss to the veteran was the second fight of his second stint in the UFC and indicated to me that Pineda still struggles against top-tier opponents. 

Fili’s a UFC mainstay who’ll benefit from his world-class experience, having faced the likes of former featherweight king Max Holloway, Michael Johnson, Yair Rodriguez and Calvin Kattar and holding victories over Miles Jury and Dennis Bermudez. 

While both are complete fighters, Fili’s more methodical whereas “The Pit” fights like a man possessed. All 27 of his wins are stoppages – nine by knockout and 18 by submission. Fili is a finisher in his own right with nine KOs and three submission wins, so odds are this isn’t going the distance. As the more tactical fighter, I’m leaving towards “Touchy.”

Prediction: Fili by knockout. 

Best Bet: Fili by KO/TKO/DQ/submission at 2.50.

Alternative Bet: Fight won’t go the distance at 1.90.

Tim Means v Nicolas Dalby (Welterweight)

Wouldn’t you know it, another switcheroo, this time twofold. Means (30-12-1-1NC) was meant to fight Danny Roberts this past weekend before the latter was pulled due to Covid protocols, while Dalby (18-4-1) had a date with Sergey Khandozhko, who had to withdraw through injury.

Having registered back-to-back wins for the first time since 2016, Means will be looking to continue his purple patch. Dalby, meanwhile, was cooled off when he was submitted by Jesse Ronson but the result was turned into a no-contest after Ronson tested positive for a banned substance. 

His latest win last November thus extended his unbeaten streak to seven and it happened to be over Daniel Rodriques, the last man to beat Means, so “Loklomotivo” will fancy his chances. Means is a southpaw who pushes the envelope and has 24 finishes, however, double-tough Darby has never been stopped. 

At 6’2″, Means is four inches taller than his adversary out of Denmark. Because of that size advantage and his veteran craftiness, I’m backing “The Dirty Bird.” 

Prediction: Means via decision.

Best Bet: Means by decision 2.65.

Alternative Bet: Means at 1.68.

Renato Moicano vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight)

A pivotal clash in both men’s careers. Moicano (14-3-1) has lost three of his last four outings, most recently to Rafael Fiziev, while Herbert (10-2) fought a perfect fight before his seemingly dream UFC debut turned into a nightmare when he got caught by Francisco Trinaldo in the third round. 

It was a bitterly disappointing twist of fate for “The Black Country Banger”, a former Cage Warriors champion who entered the world’s premier MMA promotion on a five-fight hot streak. Saturday’s showdown is a real acid test for the Brit, a skilled savage who’s won all but one of his fights by stoppage (eight KOs and one submission).

With a 50% submission rate, Moicano will look to ground the dangerous Herbert and if he’s successful, he might well force his foe to tap. However, I like Herbert’s chances as a heavy-handed underdog with a five-inch reach advantage.

Prediction: Herbert via knockout.

Best Bet: Herbert at 2.90.

Alternative Bet: Herbert by KO/TKO/DQ at 5.00.