UFC Fight Night: Font v Garbrandt Predictions

With a likely title shot on the line, former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt faces Rob Font in what’s set to be a thrilling main event at UFC Vegas 27 on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

The co-headliner at the UFC APEX is also a probable number-one contender bout as China’s Yan Xiaonan takes on inaugural strawweight champion Carla Esparza. Two of the best middleweights in the world will meet in the middle of the Octagon as well, with Jack Hermansson going head-to-head with Edmen Shahbazyan.

Making up the rest of the main card is a battle of heavyweight finishers Justin Tafa and Jared Vanderaa, a flyweight affair between David Dvorak and Raulian Paiva and a featherweight scrap between former title challenger Felicia Spencer and Norma Dumont.

MAIN CARD (from 1 AM Sunday SA time):

Rob Font v Cody Garbrandt (Bantamweight)

Garbrandt’s redemption road sees him return to the fight capital of the world to collide with a formidable rising star in Font. After ascending to the throne with a title-winning masterclass against Dominick Cruz in December 2016, Garbrandt suffered a gutting fall from grace. 

He lost the belt to friend-turned-bitter rival TJ Dillashaw, fell short in the rematch and was stunned by Pedro Munoz. From a perfect 11-0 to three successive losses, all by knockout, “No Love” looked a beaten man mentally. Hot-headedness had led to his downfall in all three defeats. Fuelled by anger, he was over-aggressive and chased the knockout at the expense of technique and tactical awareness. 

He resurfaced last June a refocused fighter. The stellar hand speed and footwork were still there, however, it was a newfound maturity. He demonstrated the all-important composure he’d lost and consequently corrected the course of his career with a knockout for the ages, starching a surging Raphael Assunção with a hellacious haymaker that nearly topped our 2020 top 10 list. It was the knockout artist’s 10th career KO, with his other two triumphs coming by decision. 

Font (17-4), meanwhile, has quietly put together a three-fight win streak dating back to December 2018, which has seen him climb the rankings all the way to third place, one spot above Garbrandt. He’s been yearning to face one of the blockbuster names at 135 pounds (61kg) and is on the doorstep of doing just that, having earned this maiden main event with a TKO win over former title challenger Marlon Moraes last December. 

Garbrandt’s experienced the pressures of headlining two massive pay-per-views and knows the physical and mental strength it takes to go five full rounds, having done so when he dethroned Cruz, the most dominant bantamweight champion in UFC history.

Stylistically, this will be more of a boxing bout than a mixed martial arts contest as both men are predominantly strikers. While Font is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt and does have four submission wins, he prefers to stand and trade, as his eight knockouts confirm. 

It’s a dangerous game to play with the hardest hitter in the division. However, Font will be aided by a massive six-inch reach advantage. Garbrandt, in turn, is so sharp with his footwork and head movement, which coupled with his unrivalled hand speed, allow him to close the distance and strike like a viper. As good as Font is, if Garbrandt stays disciplined and refuses to get sucked into a slugfest, he’ll put him away.

Prediction: Garbrandt via knockout. 

Best Bet: Garbrandt by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.65.

 Alternative Bet: Garbrandt at 1.86.

Yan Xiaonan v Carla Esparza (Strawweight)

The future meeting the past? Xiaonan has emerged as the hottest rising star in the strawweight division. She’s a perfect 6-0 in the UFC – all by points – and is coming off back-to-back wins over former title challengers Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Claudia Gadelha. The 31-year-old’s on an 11-fight win streak and has just one loss on her record, which came in her second pro fight all of 11 years ago.

Esparza (18-6) etched her name in history as the UFC’s first-ever strawweight queen when she submitted current champion Rose Namajunas in the Ultimate Fighter 20 finale back in 2014. “Cookie Monster” has been in the top five ever since and has won four on the trot. Like Xiaonan, her current streak consists entirely of decision victories.

They outpoint opponents in starkly contrasting ways. Xiaonan’s a lightning-quick volume striker, whereas Esparza’s a relentless wrestler who holds the record for the most takedowns in the division. As simple as it sounds, whoever’s able to impose their game plan on the other will walk away with the crucial win.

Xiaonan has the takedown defence (75%) plus a bit of a size advantage to keep it on the feet and needle her way to victory. 

Prediction: Xiaonan via decision.

Best Bet: Xiaonan by decision at 2.40.

Alternative Bet: Xiaonan at 1.76.

Justin Tafa v Jared Vanderaa (Heavyweight)

Don’t expect this one to go to the scorecards as these are already dangerous behemoths and will throw down with added urgency as they look to return to the winner’s circle. Living up to his “Bad Man” moniker, all four of Tafa’s wins are by knockout, while all but one of Vanderaa’s 11 victories are via stoppage (seven knockouts and three submissions). 

New Zealand’s Tafa (4-2) is one of the stockier heavyweights on the roster at just 6’0″ but he’s a skilled kickboxer who lures opponents in and counters from awkward angles as a southpaw. Vanderaa’s a journeyman whose travels include four visits to South Africa, most notably falling short against EFC heavyweight champion Andrew van Zyl in 2017. As the man with the faster hands and feet, look to Tafa to land the knockout blow.

Prediction: Tafa via knockout. 

Best Bet: Tafa by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.90.

Alternative Bet: Tafa by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 at 3.00.

Felicia Spencer v Norma Dumont (Featherweight)

An entanglement of top grapplers as both ladies lead with their submission game. Half of Spencer’s eight wins are by submissions while two of Dumont’s five victories are by tapout (the rest by decision). Spencer is an experienced featherweight, which is what should prove to be the difference-maker. 

She’s fought at 145 pounds (66kg) her entire career and is a former Invicta featherweight champion. The Canadian has been part of the UFC featherweight elite since joining the promotion in 2019 and while she failed to dethrone Amanda Nunes in her last fight last June, she did go all five rounds, which is a victory in itself against the GOAT. 

Dumont’s last fight was at bantamweight, where she picked up a bittersweet win over Ashlee Evans-Smith after having missed weight. Another botched weight cut led to her next bout being cancelled and has forced her to move back up to featherweight. Considering she lost her last fight at 145 to Megan Anderson, whom Spencer finished, there’s every indication that she’s bit off more than she can chew in “The Feenom”.

Prediction: Spencer via decision.

Best Bet: Spencer by decision at 2.80.

Alternative Bet: Spencer by submission/decision at 1.68.

David Dvorak v Raulian Paiva (Flyweight)

Two evenly matched flyweights with similar records. Eleventh-ranked Dvorak is 19-3 while 12th-ranked Paiva is 20-3. Momentum and results inside the Octagon give a clearer picture of which fighter will likely prevail as Dvorak is riding a 15-fight win streak and is 2-0 in the UFC.

Paiva is a 50-50 fighter in the UFC. The Brazilian lost his first two in the promotion but bounced back with successive wins to set up this showdown. Both men are well balanced with Dvorak being better across the board. The Czech is the more aggressive and prolific fighter as well with twice as many knockouts and submissions as Paiva, so bank on Dvorak to get it done. 

Prediction: Dvorak via decision.

Best Bet: Dvorak by decision at 2.40.

Alternative Bet: Dvorak by KO/TKO/DQ/submission at 4.00.

Jack Hermansson v Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight)

An intriguing battle of top 10 middleweights looking to bounce back. It’ll be especially interesting to see how Shahbazyan (11-1) responds to his first career loss, which came at the hands of Derek Brunson last August. I believe “The Golden Boy” will be his aggressive self. He’s a finisher by nature, with all but one of his wins coming by stoppage, so I’m expecting the 10th-ranked American to stick to his guns.  

Hermansson (21-6) won’t take a backward step. The seventh-ranked Swede was on a run towards the title before Marvin Vettori, who’ll now challenge Israel Adesanya for the gold, ended his four-fight win streak in a 25-minute affair in December. “The Joker” has 17 finishes and has had particular success with his submission game, with three of his last four wins coming by tapout, including the most recent over perennial top contender Kelvin Gastelum.

I’m expecting Hermansson to follow Brunson’s blueprint of pinning Shahbazyan to the ground with relentless wrestling to get back in the win column.

Prediction: Hermansson via decision.

Best Bet: Hermansson by submission/decision at 2.20.

Alternative Bet: Hermansson by decision at 4.50.

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.