UFC Fight Night: Emmett v Murphy Predictions

Featherweights also fill the co-headlining slot at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas with Pat Sabatini battling Joanderson Brito, while bantamweights Cortavious Romious and Chang Ho Lee battle it out in the featured bout.

The first half of the main card features a heavyweight tilt between Kennedy Nzechukwu and Martin Buday and two middleweight matchups with Brad Tavares taking on Gerald Meerschaert and Torrez Finney facing Robert Valentin.

MAIN CARD

When: Sunday, April 6, 3:00 AM SAST

Josh Emmett (3.50) v Lerone Murphy (1.28) (Featherweight)

This weekend’s main event is a compelling clash of top-10 featherweights.

Eighth-ranked Emmett (19-4) is a seasoned savage, a berserker who’s been around the block and boasts wins over high-calibre opponents like Bryce Mitchell, Calvin Kattar and Michael Johnson. He also went five rounds with Ilia Topuria, who went on to become champion.

Coming off a long layoff – he hasn’t fought since he starched Mitchell in December 2023 – and having turned 40 last month, the veteran has no time to waste if he wants to secure an elusive title shot and can’t afford any slipups.

With the power to knock out anyone in the division with a single blow, he’s confident he can hand Murphy his first loss, but he’s up against it. The Brit is unbeaten for a reason and is seemingly getting better with every fight, making him a sizeable favourite.

Murphy, whose record stands at 15-0-1, took out two other stalwarts in Dan Ige and Edson Barboza in his last two fights, which elevated him to No. 10 in the rankings and has earned him this, the biggest fight of his career to date.

“The Miracle” is a talented striker with seven knockouts to his credit (the same as Emmett). Full of intestinal fortitude, which helped him survive and recover from a shooting in 2013, the 33-year-old will have a significant speed advantage and is adept at reading opponents and adjusting accordingly.

Murphy will have to stay perfect for the full 25 minutes given his American adversary’s one-punch knockout power. He’s proven to be very defensively sound and has good footwork to go with his speed, all of which sees him absorb only 2.67 significant strikes compared to Emmett’s 4.61.

In addition to his crisp striking and tactical nous, he’ll also have a three-and-a-half-inch reach advantage, which should allow him to stay on the outside and chip away en route to a decision victory. 

Prediction: Murphy by decision.
Best Bet: Murphy by decision at 1.95.
Alternative Bet: Fight to go the distance at 1.60.

Pat Sabatini (2.85) v Joanderson Brito (1.40) (Featherweight)

The co-main event is a classic grappler versus striker battle.

Sabatini (19-5) is a submission specialist with 12 tapout wins to his name. He’ll be shooting takedowns early and often but will have his work cut out for him to close the distance.

He’s alternated results over his last four outings and is looking for a second consecutive victory following his first-round submission win over Jonathan Pearce last October.

Brito (17-4-1) is a slick and rangy striker with eight knockouts. “Tubarao” blazed quite a trail following his contract-winning effort on season five of Dana White’s Contender Series, scoring five straight finishes. However, he was cooled down in his last fight by William Gomis, who edged their September scrap by split decision.

The aggressive Brazilian has a two-inch reach advantage and solid takedown defence, so he should bounce back in style.

Prediction: Brito by knockout.
Best Bet: Brito by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.30.
Alternative Bet: Brito at 1.40.

Cortavious Romious (2.05) v Chang Ho Lee (1.72) (Bantamweight)

Two bantamweights in the early stages of their UFC careers look to impress in the featured bout.

Romious (9-3) is a capable striker and a solid grappler but is still developing and trying to level up. He’s looking to claim his first win inside the Octagon after dropping a decision to Gaston Bolanos in his UFC debut last November.

Lee (10-1) earned stoppage wins over Rana Singh and Daermisi Zhawupasi on his march to the bantamweight tournament final on the second season of Road to UFC and outpointed Xiao Long in the decider.

A fast and crisp striker with good tactical acumen, the South Korean is on a four-fight win streak and should extend it as he’s more active, accurate and polished than Romious.

Prediction: Lee by decision.
Best Bet: Lee at 1.72.
Alternative Bet: Lee by decision at 2.50.

Kennedy Nzechukwu (1.28) v Martin Buday (3.45) (Heavyweight)

Heavyweights set on trading heavy leather will bring added tension and excitement to the main card.

After flashes of his rich potential at light heavyweight, Nigeria’s Nzechukwu (14-5) opted to move up to heavyweight and has looked right at home.

“African Savage” has claimed back-to-back first-round stoppage wins over Chris Barnett and Lukasz Brzeski to take his knockout tally to 10 and is keen to build on his momentum.

Interestingly, Buday (14-2) also started his UFC heavyweight tenure with wins over Barnett and Brzeski and added victories over Jake Collier and Josh Parisian before being handed his first loss by Shamil Gaziev at the end of 2023.

He rebounded last year with a split decision win over former champion Andrei Arlovski and looks to stop the oncoming threat that is Nzechukwu.

A towering knockout artist, Nzechukwu will have a six-inch reach advantage and his ability to control the distance will likely lead to another stoppage victory.

Prediction: Nzechukwu by knockout.
Best Bet: Nzechukwu by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.50. 
Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 1.76.

Brad Tavares (1.40) v Gerald Meerschaert (2.85) (Middleweight)

Known for his toughness, Tavares (20-10) is one of just two men who’ve gone the distance with middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis, dropping a decision to the baddest man in Mzansi in 2022.

Even though he’s won just one of his last five fights and is coming off losses to Gregory Rodrigues and Jun Yong Park, he’s the favourite because he’s a technical striker with solid takedown defence and has never been submitted.

Known for his submission skills, Meerschaert (37-18) has tapped out no less than 29 foes and was on a two-fight win streak before he was beaten at his own game by former two-division ONE Championship titleholder Reinier de Ridder last November.

Given his defensive wrestling skills, Tavares should be able to stay safe and win exchanges on the feet, where he has a significant advantage, to clinch a decision win.

Prediction: Tavares by decision.
Best Bet: Tavares by decision at 1.90.
Alternative Bet: Tavares at 1.40.

Torrez Finney (1.36) v Robert Valentin (3.00) (Middleweight)

Unbeaten prospect Finney makes his UFC debut in the main card opener.

Boasting a perfect record of 10-0 with seven knockouts and one submission, it took “The Punisher” three appearances on Dana White’s Contender Series to finally impress the UFC president and earn a contract. The 26-year-old is a powerful wrestler and seeks to make a statement on the big stage.

Valentin (14-4) made a name for himself on season 32 of The Ultimate Fighter, advancing to the final on the strength of stoppage wins over Giannis Bachar and Paddy McCorry. Unfortunately for “Robzilla”, he was bested by Ryan Loder in the decider last August and looks to rebound and collect his first UFC victory.

Ultimately, the stocky Finney should use his strength and wrestling prowess to control his Swiss opponent and the fight and either ground and pound his way or grind out a win.

Prediction: Finney by knockout. 
Best Bet: Finney by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.80.
Alternative Bet: Finney by decision at 3.40.