UFC Fight Night: Dern v Rodriguez Predictions

Top contenders Mackenzie Dern and Marina Rodriguez will stake their claim for a strawweight title shot when they square off in the main event of UFC Vegas 39 on Saturday night, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

Dangerous welterweights Randy Brown and Jared Gooden will put on a show in the co-headliner at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, while top-15 flyweights Tim Elliott and Matheus Nicolau look will look to continue their climb up the ladder.   

Rounding out the main card is a flyweight fight between Sabina Mazo and Mariya Agapova and a middleweight match-up between Phil Hawes and Deron Winn.

Mackenzie Dern and Marina Rodriguez take centre stage in this weekend's UFC action.

?️ Saturday 09 October
⏰20:00 (CAT)
? Action and Variety 3 (SA only) #UFCVegas39 pic.twitter.com/3UErvTK6OK

— SuperSport ? (@SuperSportTV) October 5, 2021

MAIN CARD (from 10 PM Saturday SA time): 

Mackenzie Dern (1.58) v Marina Rodriguez (2.50) (Strawweight)

Two streaking strawweights cross paths in this pivotal five-round main event where a dominant display could catapult the victor to a championship opportunity against the winner of the upcoming rematch between Rose Namajunas and the woman she dethroned, Zhang Weili.

Styles make fights and this is a classic clash of striker versus grappler, both of whom have only tasted defeat once (by decision). Sixth-ranked Rodriguez (14-1-2) is one of the best and hardest-hitting strikers in the division. Her stand up skills have earned her all but one of her wins, six by knockout – including stunning favourite Amanda Ribas in February – and seven by decision. 

The last of her decision victories came in her most recent fight in May when she outpointed perennial contender and former Invicta champion Michelle Waterson over five rounds to record the biggest win of her career. 

Submission magician Dern (11-1) has been on an even more impressive run, notching up four consecutive victories. Three of those came via first-round tap out including in her last outing in April when she made it look easy as she slapped on an armbar to get Nina Nunes out of there.

With her unrivalled submission skills, the former Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion is a unique threat and has been touted as a future UFC champion since she arrived in the world’s premier MMA promotion in March 2018. 

There simply is no way for the fourth-ranked American’s foes to replicate what she brings to the table in training as she’s the most gifted women’s submission artist to ever grace the Octagon. Her transitions and positioning are unprecedented and if she takes an opponent down, it’s just a matter of time before she forces her to tap out. 

That Rodriguez has two inches on Dern in height and reach aids her cause and if the fight stays standing, she’ll be in the driver’s seat. That she was taken down by a fellow striker in “The Karate Hottie” last time out is a major cause for concern going into this clash. 

Dern has a much thicker base than Waterson, which in conjunction with her technical expertise, point to her being able to drag Rodriguez into her world and drown her. 

Prediction: Dern via submission. 

Best Bet: Dern by submission at 2.00

Alternative Bet: Six of Dern’s seven submission wins came in the opening round. You can back that trend at 3.50.

Randy Brown (1.41) v Jared Gooden (2.95) (Welterweight)

It’s unlikely that the judges will be needed in this clash of well-rounded and aggressive welterweight contenders, both of whom are coming off big wins. Brown (13-4) looked great against veteran Alex Oliveira, picking up his fifth win by submission to go along with six knockouts. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZ2Fw631Huk

After losing his first two tilts inside the Octagon, Gooden (18-6) broke his UFC duck in style by stopping Niklas Stolze on short notice. With eight knockouts and six submissions, “Nite Train” has the tools but hasn’t shown enough on the ultimate proving ground yet.

As a veteran of 11 fights in the UFC (7-4), Brown’s a proven commodity and on top of that, he’s the taller man by three inches and knows how to maximise his size, so I see “Rude Boy” giving Gooden a rude awakening. 

Prediction: Brown via knockout. 

Best Bet: Brown by knockout at 3.25.

Alternative Bet: Brown by KO/TKO/DQ/decision at 1.74.

Tim Elliott (2.65) v Matheus Nicolau (1.51) (Flyweight)

Ranked flyweights face-off as wily veteran Elliott (17-11-1) and dangerous Brazilian Nicolau (16-2-1) meet. Returning to the UFC after a two-year hiatus, Nicolau edged Manel Kape by split decision in March to put himself back on the map at No.11 in the rankings, two places behind his opponent this weekend. 

Former title challenger Elliott’s best days may be behind him, but his back-to-back wins this year show he’s still among the best at 125 pounds (57kg). Those performances were enough to make him a solid underdog bet in my eyes. 

Prediction: Neither man has earned a finish in the last three years, so this one’s set to go to the scorecards. Elliott via decision. 

Best Bet: Elliott at 2.65. 

Alternative Bet: Elliott by decision at 3.75.

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Sabina Mazo (1.60) v Mariya Agapova (2.45) (Flyweight)

A grinder versus a finisher. Mazo is a bully-type fighter, who uses her strength to dictate where the bout plays out. Despite rattling off three wins in a row, she decided to move up a weight class where she lost by decision to Alexis Davis in February. Now “The Colombian Queen” is back where she belongs.

All but two of Agapova’s wins are by stoppage (three knockouts and four submissions). Her last fight holds the key to who to wager on and how as she was knocked out by Shana Dobson, who Mazo women-handled. While they have matching 9-2 records, Mazo has faced significantly stronger competition and that’ll show. 

Prediction: Mazo’s a decision machine, having won six of nine on the scorecards, and I’m expecting her to continue in that vein. 

Best Bet: Mazo via decision at 2.30.

Alternative Bet: Mazo at 1.60.

Phil Hawes (1.29) v Deron Winn (2.60) (Middleweight)

On an impressive seven-fight win streak dating back to 2017, Hawes (11-2) is riding high and will dwarf his diminutive opponent inside the Octagon. At 5’6″, Winn (7-2) is used to giving up size in the 185-pound division (84kg) and uses his low centre of gravity to his advantage as a strong wrestler. 

In the streaking “Megatron”, however, he faces a man who’s not only six inches taller and will have a full seven-and-a-half inch reach advantage, but who’s also a Division I college wrestler who’s never been taken down in the UFC, so he should have the power and grappling prowess to keep the fight on the fight and score his eighth knockout. 

Prediction: Hawes via knockout. 

Best Bet: Hawes by knockout at 2.20.

Alternative Bet: Hawes by first-round stoppage at 3.25.