UFC Fight Night: Dern v Ribas 2 Predictions

One of two welterweight fights fills the co-main event slot of UFC Vegas 101 with Santiago Ponzinibbio squaring off against Carlston Harris. The two bout at 170 pounds will see Punahele Soriano meet Uros Medic.

There are two middleweight fights as well. Chris Curtis will collide with Roman Kopylov before Cesar Almeida and Abdul Razak Alhassan trade leather. Plus, Christian Rodriguez faces unbeaten newcomer Austin Bashi at featherweight.

MAIN CARD

When: Sunday, 12 January, From 02:00 AM SAST

Mackenzie Dern (2.64) vs Amanda Ribas (1.50) (Strawweight)

Familiar foes and countrywomen collide in a rematch over five years in the making in the season-opening main event.

The pair were originally scheduled to square off in the co-main event of the final 2024 card but the UFC brass had a rethink and decided the Brazilian bad asses were worthy of a headlining slot.

Dern (14-5) is aiming to kill two birds with one stone as she looks to preserve her sixth-place standing and exact revenge after Ribas (13-5) outpointed her to end her undefeated streak back in 2019.

The multi-time jiu-jitsu world champion has been a staple in the strawweight top 10 since then, winning seven of her 11 bouts and snapped a two-fight losing streak with a decision win over Loopy Godinez last August.

In a class of her own when it comes to the ground game in women’s mixed martial arts, Dern boasts the most submission wins in strawweight history with four and has tapped out a total of seven opponents in all.

Her jiu-jitsu wizardry makes her a special attraction, one who’s headlined three previous cards, and a tough stylistic test for anyone in the 115-pound division.

Ribas is 5-4 since her win over Dern in their first fight and returns to strawweight after a failed bid to cash in on a high-profile main event bout against Rose Namajunas at flyweight.

A sharp striker, her only fight at 115 pounds since 2022 saw her score a TKO win over Luana Pinheiro in November 2023. Given her striking acumen and solid grappling, she’s been positioned at No. 10 in the strawweight division and can close in on a place in the top five with another win over her old foe.

Both ladies have a willingness to get after it and have improved since their first meeting. Dern’s striking has come a long way but is still not at an elite level, which continues to hold her back against the very best.

Ribas’ advantage on the feet, coupled with the fact that she’s a black belt in judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, should allow her to dictate terms, stave off Dern’s submission attempts and pick up the victory again.

Prediction: Ribas by decision
Best Bet: Ribas by decision at 1.86.
Alternative Bet: Ribas at 1.50.

Santiago Ponzinibbio (1.74) vs Carlston Harris (2.14) (Welterweight)

Welterweight veterans will go to war in the co-main event.

Once a promising contender in the top 10, Ponzinibbio (29-8) has been on the outskirts of the 170-pound division since he suffered a serious leg injury a while back.

“The Argentine Dagger” isn’t done, though, but he’s not as fast and slick as he was in his prime and is looking to snap a two-fight losing streak. With 22 finishes (16 knockouts and six submissions), he’s a threat to be taken seriously.

Harris (19-6) never reached the heights his opponent did and has spent only four years in the UFC, a third of the time Ponzinibbio has. He’s 4-2 in the promotion and coming off a knockout loss to Khaos Williams last May.

“Moçambique” is solid on the feet and ground, as his five knockouts and six submissions suggest. However, as close as this contest is on paper, he’s never beaten anyone of Ponzinibbio’s calibre.

With more high-level experience and wins, Ponzinibbio should prevail in a fun fight.

Prediction: Ponzinibbio by decision.
Best Bet: Ponzinibbio at 1.74.
Alternative Bet: Ponzinibbio by decision at 4.00.

Cesar Almeida (1.37) vs Abdul Razak Alhassan (3.20) (Middleweight)

We have a barnburner on our hands in the featured bout.

Brazil’s Almeida (6-1) suffered the first loss of his mixed martial arts career to Roman Kopylov last June but rebounded with a decision win over Ihor Potieria. A former kickboxer, four of his six wins are by knockout and he showed against Potieria last time out that his grappling is nothing to scoff at.

Ghana’s Alhassan (12-6) is an assassin on the feet. Deadly when he’s on his game, “Judo Thunder” has a 100% knockout rate and is eager to get back in the win column after his last fight ended in a no-contest after he landed shots to the back of Cody Brundage’s head.

As competent of a striker as Almeida is, he’ll know his best path to victory is to mix things up. I’m expecting “Cesinha” to do just that and for him to reap the rewards in the form of a knockout.

Prediction: Almeida by knockout.
Best Bet: Almeida by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.00.
Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 1.62.

Chris Curtis (3.10) vs Roman Kopylov (1.38) (Middleweight)

This is a tilt of two men looking to get back into the middleweight top 15.

Curtis (31-11) is looking to kick off 2025 on the right note as he’s won just one of his last four fights. “The Action Man”, known for his striking, main evented the last time he stepped into the Octagon but suffered a double blow as he dropped a split decision to Brendan Allen and tore his hamstring.

Kopylov (13-3) is also primarily a striker with all but two of his wins coming by knockout. The Russian has won five of his last six fights and is coming off the above-mentioned split decision win over Almeida.

A fit-again Curtis will pour everything into this fight but the younger, faster and more technical Kopylov should outwork him to pick up the win.

Prediction: Kopylov by decision.
Best Bet: Kopylov by decision at 2.00.
Alternative Bet: Fight to go the distance at 1.58.

Christian Rodriguez (3.05) vs Austin Bashi (1.40) (Featherweight)

Rodriguez (11-2) has been his own worst enemy thus far in his UFC tenure. He’s recorded a couple of tainted victories, including one over South Africa’s Cameron Saaiman, after missing weight, which forced him to move up from bantamweight to featherweight.

Success has proven harder to come by for “CeeRod” at 145 pounds, where he eked out a split decision win over Isaac Dulgarian before being submitted by Julian Erosa last July.

Standing across from him this weekend will be promotional newcomer Bashi, who boasts a perfect 13-0 record. His win over Dorian Ramos on Dana White’s Contender Series last September was his fourth in a row by submission and landed him a UFC contract.

Bashi has a good head on his shoulders and a solid all-around skill set, which should carry him to a successful UFC debut.

Prediction: Bashi by decision.
Best Bet: Bashi by decision at 1.90.
Alternative Bet: Bashi at 1.40.

Punahele Soriano (2.64) vs Uros Medic (1.50) (Welterweight)

Hard-hitting welterweights plan to start the year with a bang in the main card opener.

The combatants meet in the middle at 170 pounds with Soriano (10-4) previously fighting one division up at middleweight and Medic (10-2) one down at lightweight. That would suggest that the former is the bigger man but the latter actually has a two-inch height advantage at 6’1″.

“Puna” looked like a fighter reborn in his first fight at welterweight, dominating Miguel Baeza last June, while Medic is 2-1 in his new division and knocked out Tim Means in his last appearance last April.

“The Doctor” has a 100% finish rate (eight knockouts and two submissions) and with a game but slightly outmatched opponent in front of him, he should keep that violent streak going.

Prediction: Medic by knockout.
Best Bet: Medic by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.40.
Alternative Bet: Medic at 1.50.