UFC Fight Night: Costa v Vettori Predictions

For Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori, the last two challengers to Israel Adesanya’s middleweight championship, the road back into title contention go through each other at UFC Vegas 41 on Saturday night, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

The co-main event at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas promises to produce fireworks as lightweight finishers Grant Dawson and Rick Glenn trade leader, while Jessica-Rose Clark and Joselyne Edwards battle it out in the bantamweight division.

Also, streaking featherweights Alex Caceres and Seung-Woo Choi collide, seasoned welterweights Francisco Trinaldo and Dwight Grant go toe-to-toe and lethal light heavyweights Nicolae Negumereanu and Isaac Villanueva face-off.

MAIN CARD (from 10 PM Saturday SA time): 

Paulo Costa (2.25) v Marvin Vettori (1.68) (Middleweight)

Looking to rebound from their respective losses to the middleweight king, this is a high-stakes and stylistically compelling main event clash between top-five contenders. Costa, a striking force of destruction, was a perfect 13-0 with 11 knockouts when he challenged “The Last Stylebender” for the title last September. 

A monstrous middleweight who looks like he’s carved out of granite, Costa was widely considered as the biggest threat to Adesanya’s reign leading up to their heated headlining battle at UFC 253. Instead, it took the champion just eight minutes and 59 minutes to end the imposing Brazilian’s unbeaten record. 

A perplexingly frozen Costa was picked apart, bloodied and emasculated and blaming the second-round TKO loss on “a drinking session” on the eve of the fight only further damaged his reputation. He hasn’t fought since that embarrassing loss and with his movie monster-like aura now trapped in a soul stone on Adesanya’s title belt, it remains to be seen if he’ll be the aggressive animal of old or the deer in the headlights that got run over last time out.

Vettori fared much better than Costa in that he went the distance against the Nigerian-born and New Zealand-bred title-holder at UFC 263 in June. Yet, his hopes of becoming the first Italian UFC champion were dashed for the time being via unanimous decision in a far more clear-cut fight than the pair’s first meeting three years ago, which Adesanya won by split decision.

Having had a five-fight win streak snapped by “The Last Stylebender,” fifth-ranked Vettori starts his next run at the title with a record of 17-5-1. As he showed in both bouts against Adesanya, he can handle himself on the feet and has never been finished. However, considering he has little punching power (just two knockouts) and that Costa’s only clear path to victory is by knockout, every second “The Italian Dream” stays striking with “The Eraser” is a risk. 

As a middleweight with a solid frame, Vettori’s greatest strengths are his conditioning and his grappling. Few in the 185-pound (84kg) division can keep up with his tireless pace, which is made all the more taxing by how he makes his opponent carry his weight with his smothering style. 

Muscle-bound “Borrachinha” has only gone the distance once, and that was in a three-round fight when he beat Yoel Romero in 2019. His conditioning has always been in question, so the game plan for Vettori will be to survive the early rounds, which he has the offensive grappling and defensive striking capabilities to do, drag Costa into the main event rounds for the first time and look for the submission.    

A Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt, Vettori has earned nine of his 17 wins by tap out and he has the skills and gas tank to add a worn-down Costa to that list. 

Prediction: Vettori via submission.

Best Bet: Vettori at 1.68.

Alternative Bets: Vettori by submission at 6.50 or submission/decision at 1.95.

Grant Dawson (1.27) v Rick Glenn (3.80) (Lightweight)

These two know they don’t get paid by the minute. They’re aggressive with high-level skills to match their inner savage. Yet, both have flown under the radar, making this co-main event billing the opportunity they’ve yearned for to raise their profile. 

For all his talent and excellent record, Dawson, in particular, should have a bigger name than he currently does. “KDG” has only tasted defeat once, outside of the UFC in 2016, while all but two of his 17 wins are by stoppage (11 by submission). 

On an eight-fight win streak, Dawson is a firm favourite, but he’ll have to be tight defensively against Glenn (22-6-1). Having traded wins and losses in each of his last five fights, “The Gladiator” is inconsistent but always game and dangerous, boasting 16 stoppages (12 by knockout). 

His win over Joaquim Silva in June was his first fight in nearly three years and lasted just 37 seconds, so rust and conditioning could be a factor. Above everything, though, his takedown defence is below par and he’s been submitted twice, so a strong wrestler and submission artist like Dawson should get him out of there, or grind out a decision.

Prediction: Dawson via submission.

Best Bet: Dawson by submission at 3.50.

Alternative Bet: Dawson by decision at 2.30.

Jessica-Rose Clark (1.68) v Joselyne Edwards (2.25) (Bantamweight)

Returning after suffering a torn ACL in her knockout win over Sarah Alpar last September, Clark’s sharpness will be tested by the dangerous Edwards (10-3). The latter is coming off a loss to Karol Rosa in February but when she’s on, she’s lethal, with eight of her wins coming by stoppage (five by knockout). At 5’8″, she’s three inches taller than “Jessy Jess” and will have a five-and-a-half-inch reach advantage.

Clark (10-6) is the better and more well-rounded fighter who mixes up striking and grappling, whereas “La Pantera” relies heavily on her striking. Sitting down on her punches gives her that knockout power but it also makes her easier to take down, which has been her biggest weakness. 

A calculated Clark, who has a 50% finishing rate (three by knockout), will pick her spots and switch things up en route to a win on the judges’ scorecards. 

Prediction: Clark via decision.

Best Bet: Clark at 1.68.

Alternative Bet: Clark by decision at 2.20.

Alex Caceres (3.25) v Seung-Woo Choi (1.35) (Featherweight)

Just over a decade into his UFC career, Caceres (18-12) has hit a hot streak. “Bruce Leeroy” has won four on the trot, three of them by decision, and is a balanced and battle-tested stalwart with three knockouts and six submissions on his record.  

Choi (10-3) is an out-an-out striker with six knockouts and four decision victories. “Sting” represents the lesser of two evils for Caceres, who’s lost seven fights by submission. He’ll welcome not having to deal with that threat but, at the same time, he’s going to have his hands full on the feet. 

Choi is the crisper and more powerful striker and looks set to notch up a decision against the durable Caceres, who’s only been knocked out once, back in 2015.

Prediction: Choi via decision.

Best Bet: Choi by decision at 2.00.

Alternative Bet: This fight should be much more closely contested than the line suggests, so Caceres isn’t a bad underdog option at 3.25. 

Francisco Trinaldo (1.80) v Dwight Grant (2.05) (Welterweight)

Trinaldo (26-8) is an anomaly similar to Yoel Romero. At 43, he hasn’t lost a step and like his fellow freakish veteran, he uses his exceptional explosiveness to catch opponents off-guard. His loss last time out was down to moving up to welterweight for the first time rather than the workings of Father Time. He’ll be much better prepared for his second scrap at 185 pounds and has more tools in his toolbox. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt, he has five submission wins along with nine knockouts. 

Grant (11-3) is no spring chicken either at 37. Like his nickname suggests, “The Body Snatcher” is a striker and boasts seven knockouts. However, just one of those came inside the Octagon and against a terminator like Trinaldo, who’s never been knocked out, striking alone won’t be enough. All three winning methods are in play, but the Brazilian’s most likely to get it done by decision. 

Prediction: Trinaldo via decision.

Best Bet: Trinaldo at 1.80.

Alternative Bet: Trinaldo via decision at 2.80.

Nicolae Negumereanu (1.44) v Isaac Villanueva (2.85) (Light Heavyweight)

Light heavyweight hitmen on a collision course will kick-off the main card with a bang. Negumereanu’s last win was his first by decision. All nine of the ruthless Romanian’s previous wins were stoppages, six of those being knockouts, while he only has one blemish on his record.

Veteran Villanueva (18-12) is a knockout artist who’s claimed all but three of his wins by KO. His fighting style is akin to Russian roulette; he lives and dies by the sword and has consequently been finished 11 times. Not only is Negumereanu faster and 10 years younger than “Hurricane” but he’ll also have a five-inch reach advantage, so he’s set to starch Villanueva.

Prediction: Negumereanu via stoppage.

Best Bet: Negumereanu by stoppage at 1.83

Alternative Bet: Negumereanu by knockout at 2.80.

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.