UFC Fight Night: Cejudo v Song Predictions

In the main event of UFC Seattle at the Climate Pledge Arena on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Top-15 middleweights Brendan Allen and Anthony Hernandez meet in the co-main event, while Rob Font faces the undefeated Jean Matsumoto in a catchweight clash.

Also on the main card is a featherweight fight between Jean Silva and Melsik Baghdasaryan and a light heavyweight duel pitting Alonzo Menifield against promotional newcomer Julius Walker.

MAIN CARD

When: Sunday, February 23, 4:00 AM

Henry Cejudo (3.10) v Song Yadong (1.35) (Bantamweight)

The sport of mixed martial arts is rapidly evolving. Time away is costly and Cejudo’s second stint in the UFC is proof of this. 

As an Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling and former two-division UFC champion (flyweight and bantamweight), “Triple C” (16-4) is one of the most decorated combat sports athletes in history.

However, he’s winless since coming out of retirement in 2023, losing to then-bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling and current titleholder Merab Dvalishvili.

Those defeats are nothing to be ashamed of, given they were against two of the absolute best, but this fight right here is a must-win for the legendary Cejudo if he wants to stick around.

Song (21-8-1) is a talented fighter on the rise who’s worked his way up to eighth place in the rankings, just one spot below Cejudo. However, he’s not at the elite level yet, where Cejudo has resided for most of his career.

He’s won five of his last seven fights but those two losses were to the next level of fighter he’s still to break into. The first was to former interim title challenger Cory Sandhagen and the second was in his most recent bout, a decision loss to former champion Petr Yan last March.

Despite this, Song – as the younger fighter by eight years – is a sizeable favourite to score the biggest win of his career this weekend. As his nickname suggests, “Kung Fu Kid” is primarily a striker. Swift and smart on the feet, he uses his speed and fight IQ to do damage and competes at a high pace.

Cejudo is one of the best wrestlers to ever grace the Octagon. In addition, he’s an absolute combat genius. His fight IQ and ability to execute a game plan or make mid-fight adjustments are second to none.

A born winner, he not only has the heart of a champion but also the mind and drive that separates the good from the great and the great from the iconic. He’s a bona fide legend, a one-of-a-kind super athlete whose legacy as an all-time great is already secured.

How much does he have left at 38? That’s the big question. Song is the first striker he’ll share the Octagon with since coming out of retirement, so I see him having success with his wrestling, something he didn’t have against Sterling and Dvalishvili.

He’s always been defensively sound and has only been stopped once, back in his first title fight by the great Demetrious Johnson in 2016, so it’s unlikely Song will be able to get him out of there. Thus, Cejudo is a value underdog to grind out a win.

Prediction: Cejudo by decision.
Best Bet: Cejudo at 3.10.
Alternative Bet: Cejudo by decision at 4.75.

Brendan Allen (3.30) v Anthony Hernandez (1.30) (Middleweight)

The spotlight shines on the middleweight division ruled by South Africa’s Dricus du Plessis in the co-main event.

For Allen (24-6), this is a chance to get a measure of revenge, while for Hernandez (13-2) it’s an opportunity to break into the top 10.

Revenge is on Allen’s mind as he lost to Hernandez by decision in their clash for the vacant LFA title seven years ago. Now ranked ninth at 185 pounds in the UFC, he gets his chance to set the record straight. 

A gifted grappler with 14 submissions to his name, “All In” is looking to bounce back after having his seven-fight win streak snapped by Nassourdine Imavov last September.

Hernandez is red hot having rattled off six straight wins. “Fluffy” produced a masterclass against Michel Pereira in his most recent bout last October, battering and finally finishing the dangerous Brazilian in the fifth round.

While he’s three places below Allen in the rankings, he’s the more well-rounded fighter, as he showed in their first meeting, and should get his hand raised again.

Prediction: Hernandez by decision.
Best Bet: Hernandez by decision at 2.25.
Alternative Bet: Fight to go the distance at 1.61.

Rob Font (2.30) v Jean Matsumoto (1.60) (Catchweight)

Font (21-8) was originally set to face Dominick Cruz, however, the legendary former bantamweight champion was forced to withdraw due to injury and then decided to call it a day.

In his place steps undefeated rising star Matsumoto, who plans to extend his record to an impressive 17-0 and break into the rankings with a statement performance against ninth-ranked Font.

Matsumoto, who is still only 25 years old, will look to display his jiu-jitsu and Muay Thai black belt skills in the biggest opportunity of his career.

Font, a perennial top contender in the stacked bantamweight division, steps up to prove that he will take on anyone, anytime, anywhere and hand Matsumoto his first loss in a fight that’ll take place at a catchweight of 140 pounds.

Font is a savvy veteran who can do it all and has faced elite competition, and the fact that Matsumoto comes in on short notice makes the American a good underdog bet. 

Prediction: Font by decision.
Best Bet: Font at 2.30.
Alternative Bet: Font by decision at 3.00

Jean Silva (1.15) v Melsik Baghdasaryan (5.00) (Featherweight)

Featherweight strikers will throw down in what has a Fight of the Night glow to it.

Silva (14-2) has immense power for a smaller fighter which, mixed with his aggression, has seen him win all three of his UFC fights to date by stoppage to take his knockout tally to 11.

“Lord” is a heavy favourite for good reason but his first battle will be on the scale after he missed weight for his last featherweight fight against Charles Jourdain. After winning that fight, he moved up to 155 pounds to stop Drew Dober last July and is now dipping back down to 145 pounds.

Whereas Silva is all power, Baghdasaryan (8-2) is a technician on the feet. Being a southpaw makes “The Gun” an even trickier customer to deal with and he’s done fairly well for himself in the UFC, winning three of his four fights.

What’s concerning for him is that he doesn’t have the power to deter Silva from marching forward and putting the pressure on him. He could also be rusty, as he hasn’t fought since his win over Tucker Lutz in July 2023.

This is a tough comeback fight for Baghdasaryan. He’ll be game, but all signs point to Silva walking him down and getting him out of there.

Prediction: Silva by knockout.
Best Bet: Silva by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.00.
Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 1.70.

Alonzo Menifield (1.40) v Julius Walker (2.85) (Light Heavyweight)

Opportunity beckons for UFC newcomer Walker, who makes his debut riding a nine-fight win streak, with eight of those victories coming by way of finish.

“Juice Box” not only gets to realise his dream of fighting in the world’s leading mixed martial arts promotion but also has a chance to catapult himself straight into the rankings with a win over No. 15-ranked Menifield (15-5-1).

Menifield finds himself looking to break out of the first two-fight losing streak of his career. After a five-fight unbeaten run, “Atomic” endured a rough 2024 that saw him go down to surging contender Carlos Ulberg and unbeaten Russian Azamat Murzakanov.

Those are two top-calibre opponents, so there’s no shame in losing to them. He’s still an athletic and explosive striker and his high-level experience should see him spoil Walker’s debut.

Prediction: Menifield by knockout.
Best Bet: Menifield by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.40.