UFC Fight Night: Cannonier v Gastelum Predictions

Top-10 contenders Jared Cannonier and Kelvin Gastelum collide in a pivotal middleweight main event showdown at UFC Vegas 34 on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

The co-headliner at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas sees the legendary Clay Guida go head-to-head with undefeated Olympic silver medallist Mark Madsen at lightweight, while Vinc Pichel takes on Austin Hubbard in a second showdown at 155 pounds (70kg).

The action will be hot and fast when top-10 flyweights Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval battle it out for a potential title shot, Parker Porter and Chase Sherman square off in what’s sure to be a heavyweight slugfest and Trevin Jones welcomes Saidyokub Kakharamonov to the UFC in a bantamweight bout.

Middleweight showdown at #UFCVegas34!

Jared Cannonier vs Kelvin Gastelum this Saturday! pic.twitter.com/hjzThcV1bt

— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) August 16, 2021

MAIN CARD (from 4 AM Sunday SA time):

Jared Cannonier (1.68) v Kelvin Gastelum (2.25) (Middleweight)

Two of the best in the world at 185 pounds (84kg), it was just a matter of time before they faced off inside the Octagon and it comes at a point where neither man can afford to lose. Coincidently, both men are coming off decision losses to Robert Whittaker, Cannonier (13-5) coming up short last October and Gastelum (16-7) in April of this year. 

A former heavyweight and light heavyweight, Cannonier is a massive middleweight with explosive power and freakish athleticism. The loss to “The Reaper” snapped a red-hot run that saw “The Killa Gorilla” TKO David Branch, the legendary Anderson Silva and Jack Hermansson.

A win over Whittaker would’ve sealed a title shot against Israel Adesanya, but he’s still ranked third in the division and a decisive victory over Gastelum may well earn him that elusive championship opportunity against the winner of the rematch between Adesanya and Whittaker that’s currently in the works. At 37, time is not on his side should he fall short and have to work his way back into title contention. 

Gastelum is 29, but his struggles in recent years suggest he’s past his prime. He was at the peak of his powers when he was pipped on points by Adesanya in a five-round war for the interim middleweight title in April 2019. Since that all-time classic, he’s won just one of four, a decision victory over Ian Heinisch, the only opponent outside of the division’s elite. As a result, he’s slipped to ninth in the rankings and there are serious question marks as to if he’s still among the cream of the crop.

A stocky wrestler, Gastelum has power in his hands, the pick and last of his six knockouts dating back to 2017 when he starched former champion Michael Bisping, but grappling is his best path to success. Cannonier is such a physical specimen, though, that Gastelum will likely have to chain wrestle to get him off his feet. 

Keeping him there won’t be easy either, but if he can, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt can look to seal a fifth submission victory. Having said that, there’s nothing more energy-sapping than chain wrestling, especially for the smaller man, so Gastelum will slow down if takedowns are as tough to come by as expected. 

Fading against an already faster foe is detrimental and it will lead to many punters putting money down on a late Cannonier finish. With 11 of his 13 wins coming by stoppage – nine knockouts and two submissions – “The Killa Gorilla” is a savage, but Gastelum has a granite chin and a warrior spirit, so I see Cannonier winning on the scorecards. 

Prediction: Cannonier via decision.

Best Bet: Cannonier at 1.68.

Alternative Bets: Cannonier by decision at 3.75 or fight to go the distance at 1.95.

Clay Guida (2.45) v Mark Madsen (1.60) (Lightweight)

Already a Hall of Famer, Guida (36-20) is one of the most tenured fighters on the roster. Since debuting in the UFC back in 2006, he’s become a bona fide legend and boasts victories over the likes of Nate Diaz and former champions Rafael Dos Anjos, Anthony Pettis and the great BJ Penn.

To call him a wild man or describe his fighting style as violence in perpetual motion doesn’t do it justice. “The Carpenter” fights like a man possessed, a rabid dog in relentless pursuit of a piece of meat. Even at 39, he’s still bouncing around the Octagon and outworked fellow former top-10 contender Michael Johnson in February.

He welcomes a good scrap but is most effective when he uses his wrestling to control opponents and then go to his jiu-jitsu to finish the fight. Thirteen of his wins have come via this method, 15 by decision and seven by knockout. The problem for the veteran is he’s up against a different breed of a wrestler in Madsen.

An Olympic silver medallist in Greco-Roman wrestling at the 2016 Rio Games, he’s taken to MMA like a duck to water and is a perfect 10-0, two of which came in the UFC. Three of his wins are by knockout and three via submission, so he’s more than a lay and pray grappler. As crafty as Guida is, I don’t see him derailing the Denmark juggernaut. 

Prediction: Madsen via decision.

Best Bet: Madsen by decision at 2.20.

Alternative Bet: Madsen by KO/TKO/DQ/decision at 1.74.

Parker Porter (2.60) v Chase Sherman (1.52) (Heavyweight)

When Sherman’s inside the Octagon, you best not blink. All but one of his 15 wins are by knockout and his recent decision loss to former two-time heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski was just the fifth time in his 21-fight career that he went to the judges’ scorecards.

Porter’s a prolific finisher as well with eight of his 10 wins coming by stoppage (five knockouts and three submissions). His win over Josh Parisian last November was his first in the UFC and just the second time in his 16-fight career that he went the distance. He lives and dies by the proverbial sword, so the judges won’t be needed for this one. 

Sherman is the more poised striker, has four inches on Porter in height and three in reach plus a significant advantage in high-level competition, so “The Vanilla Gorilla” looks primed for another KO. 

Prediction: Sherman via knockout.

Best Bet: Sherman by knockout at 2.20.

Alternative Bet: Sherman by first-round stoppage at 3.50 or second-round stoppage at 5.75.

Top 10 UFC knockouts of 2020

Vinc Pichel (1.95) v Austin Hubbard (1.86) (Lightweight)

A pick ‘em at lightweight. Pichel (13-2) has momentum on his side, having won two in a row, and has a significantly better record of 6-2 inside the Octagon. Hubbard (13-5) has traded wins in losses in each of his six UFC fights. By that trend alone, he’s staring at defeat after having beaten Dakota Bush by decision in April. 

It’s a fight that boils down to the wrestling of Pichel, who primarily grinds out decisions with heavy top control, and whether Hubbard will be able to keep it standing, where he has a distinct advantage. This one will likely go to the judges and I see the younger, faster and stronger Hubbard getting his hand raised by outpointing his 38-year-old foe on the feet.

Prediction: Hubbard via decision.

Best Bet: Hubbard at 1.86.

Alternative Bet: Hubbard by decision at 2.80.

Alexandre Pantoja (1.58) v Brandon Royval (2.50) (Flyweight)

This is bound to be a strong contender for Fight of the Night honours. It’s No.3 versus No.6 in what promises to be a breathless flyweight battle as both men constantly move and attack, both on the feet and on the ground. A second similarity is they’re both Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts with eight submission victories, setting the stage for a gripping grappling match should the action spill onto the floor.

The key difference between the two comes in the striking department. Pantoja (23-5) is one of the hardest hitters at 125 pounds (57kg) and has eight knockouts to show for it, whereas Royval (12-5) is a volume striker. Pantoja has a great chin as well, which allows him to eat a few in order to give a few, which serves him well as the man with greater firepower. 

“The Cannibal” has the speed to keep up with Royval and a significant experience advantage, which includes victories over current champion Brandon Moreno and former Rizin champ Manel Kape in February. Given those advantages, Pantoja should put “Raw Dawg” down in a humdinger. That said, if you’re going to back an underdog on the card, Royval offers the best-merited value. 

Prediction: Pantoja via knockout.

Best Bet: Pantoja by KO/TKO/DQ/decision at 1.80.

Alternative Bet: Royval at 2.50.

Trevin Jones v Saidyokub Kakharamonov (Bantamweight)

In MMA, things can turn on a dime. Jones (13-6) stepped in for Jesse Strader on less than two weeks’ notice to face UFC debutant Mana Martinez only for Martinez to be forced out of the fight on Monday. With Jones intent on fighting, the UFC scrambled to find a late replacement and on Wednesday, it was announced that promotional newcomer Kakharamonov (8-2) will fill the void.

Kakharamonov has won six of his eight fights by stoppage including his last two by knockout. Jones is on an even more impressive stoppage streak; he’s finished his last four opponents and has won both of his fights inside the Octagon by TKO. Late replacements seldom come good as they go into battle without having had a proper fight camp. Couple that with the fact that Jones is a considerable step up in competition and it’s clear that “5 Star” should shine.

Prediction: Jones via knockout. 

Best Bet: Jones by knockout.